Egypt & US intel warned Israel days before Hamas attack

[Alenka]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67082047

Israel was warned by Egypt of potential violence three days before Hamas' deadly cross-border raid, a US congressional panel chairman has said.

House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee head Michael McCaul told reporters of the alleged warning.

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu described the reports as "absolutely false".

Israeli intelligence services are under scrutiny for their failure to prevent the deadliest attack by Palestinian militants in Israel's 75-year history.

"We know that Egypt has warned the Israelis three days prior that an event like this could happen," Mr McCaul told reporters following a closed-door intelligence briefing on Wednesday for lawmakers about the Middle East crisis, according to AFP news agency.

"I don't want to get too much into classified, but a warning was given," the Texas Republican added. "I think the question was at what level."

An Egyptian intelligence official told the Associated Press news agency this week that Cairo had repeatedly warned the Israelis "something big" was being planned from Gaza.

"We have warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Cairo official said Israeli officials had played down the threat from Gaza, instead focusing on the West Bank.

Sir Alex Younger, who served as chief of the UK's foreign intelligence agency between 2014 and 2020, said Hamas fighters were able to carry out their attack on 7 October due to "institutional complacency" in Israel.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today Podcast there may have been an assumption by Israel that Hamas was not interested in a new conflict, so any information that contradicted that was discounted.

"It is my assumption - though I'm not on the inside - that there would be data breaking through that could have been interpreted differently and certainly would be with hindsight," he said.

He added that complacency could have been compounded by an over-reliance on technological means to monitor Gaza, leading to a false sense of security.

According to the Financial Times, quoting two unnamed officials familiar with the matter, there was no hard intelligence of a specific attack.

On Wednesday, Mr Netanyahu described any suggestion that Israel had received a specific warning in advance of the deadly incursion as "totally fake news".

Egypt - which controls who crosses its border with Gaza - often serves as a mediator between Israel and Hamas.

More than 1,500 militants stormed through the Gaza security barrier in a co-ordinated land, air and sea attack on Saturday.

The death toll in Israel from the Hamas attacks has reached 1,200. More than 1,000 people have been killed by Israeli air strikes on Gaza.

Israel has been pounding Hamas targets in Gaza in response, while residents of the territory say they have no mains electricity after their only power station ran out of fuel.

Hamas has, meanwhile, condemned US President Joe Biden's remarks on Tuesday saying Israel had a duty to respond to the attacks, which he called an "act of sheer evil".

The Palestinian group said Mr Biden's remarks were "inflammatory" and aimed to escalate tensions in the Gaza Strip.

In the wake of the Hamas attack, the US announced it was moving an aircraft carrier, ships and jets to the eastern Mediterranean, and that it would also give Israel additional equipment and ammunition.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/13/p...ack/index.html

Washington
CNN
—
The US intelligence community produced at least two assessments based in part on intelligence provided by Israel warning the Biden administration of an increased risk for Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the weeks ahead of Saturday’s seismic attack on southern Israel, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.

One update from September 28 warned, based on multiple streams of intelligence, that the terror group Hamas was poised to escalate rocket-attacks across the border. An October 5 wire from the CIA warned generally of the increasing possibility of violence by Hamas. Then, on October 6, the day before the attack, US officials circulated reporting from Israel indicating unusual activity by Hamas — indications that are now clear: an attack was imminent.

None of the American assessments offered any tactical details or indications of the overwhelming scope, scale and sheer brutality of the operation that Hamas carried out on October 7, sources say. It is unclear if any of these US assessments were shared with Israel, which provides much of the intelligence that the US bases its reports on.

Israel, Gaza and the West Bank are also on a “hot spots” list included in intelligence briefings for senior officials almost daily, a person who receives the briefings said.

Intelligence assessments are written by the intelligence community to inform policy makers and enable them to make decisions.

“The problem is that none of this is new,” said one of the sources familiar with the intelligence. “This is something that has historically been the norm between Hamas and Israel. I think what happened is everyone saw these reports and were like, ‘Yeah of course. But we know what this will look like.’”

But the assessments were among a wave of high-level warnings given to the Biden administration by both its own intelligence community and Middle Eastern allies over the past year, raising questions about whether the US and Israel were appropriately attuned to the risk.

A senior official from an Arab country in the region said their country repeatedly raised concerns with US and Israeli officials that Palestinian anger was reaching a dangerous pitch. “But they never listened every time we warned them,” the official said.

A Middle Eastern diplomat in Washington, DC, also told CNN that their government had repeatedly warned the White House and US intelligence officials of a buildup of Hamas weapons and anger among Palestinians that was set to explode.

“The arms that exist in Gaza is beyond the imagination of anybody’s thinking,” they warned, the diplomat said. “The arms that exist in the West Bank, via Hamas, are also becoming a real problem and Hamas control of the West Bank is a real issue.”

“This in every meeting, every meeting in the last year and a half,” the diplomat added.

And in February, CIA Director Bill Burns told an audience at the Georgetown School of Foreign Service that he was “quite concerned about the prospects for even greater fragility and even greater violence between Israelis and Palestinians.”

“I would not come to the conclusion that the intel community was not tracking this from a strategic level — in fact they were,” a US official told CNN.

Yet those strategic warnings did nothing to help US or Israeli officials predict the events of October 7, when more than 1,000 Hamas fighters poured across the border into Israel in an operation that would leave more than a thousand Israelis dead. For most US and Israeli officials who were tracking the intelligence, the expectation was that there would likely be just another round of small-scale violence by Hamas — perhaps some rocket fire that Israel’s Iron Dome would intercept, one source familiar with the intelligence explained.

“If we had known or if we know of a pending attack against an ally, we would clearly inform that ally,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on Friday.

Senior Biden administration officials — as well as current and former intelligence officials — continue to say they remain focused on the crisis at hand and insist that is too soon to review how the planning for such a massive attack was missed.

Multiple current and former intelligence officials, as well as some lawmakers briefed on US intelligence, pushed back on the notion that the failure to provide tactical warning of the attack was the US’s responsibility — because so much of US intelligence reporting on Gaza originated with Israel in the first place.

Another source familiar with the intelligence sumbumed up the US view: “Israel missed this, not us. We have a level of confidence in Shin Bet, the IDF, Mossad and others.”

The New York Times also reported on the existence of some of the reports and that they were not briefed up to President Joe Biden.

“There was no information warning about the terrorist attack in advance,” a Biden administration official told CNN.

The Office of Director of National Intelligence and the CIA declined to comment.

Missed signs
Based on conversations with dozens of current and former intelligence, military and congressional officials, the view is coalescing among US officials and lawmakers that Israel’s failure to predict the explosion of simmering rage from Gaza was primarily due to a lack of imagination.

Hamas likely hid the planning of the operation through old-fashioned counterintelligence measures such as conducting planning meetings in person and staying off digital communications whose signals the Israelis can track. But US officials also believe that Israel had become complacent about the threat Hamas posed and failed to recognize key indicators that the group was planning for a large-scale operation.

For example, Israeli officials failed to recognize routine Hamas training exercises as a sign that the group was preparing an imminent attack. The militants trained for the onslaught in at least six sites across Gaza, a CNN investigation found, including at one site less than a mile from Israel’s border.

“There were numerous indicators of a change in posture generally by Hamas and then pivoting both in public rhetoric and posture more towards violence and attacks generally,” said one source familiar with US intelligence.

In general, the Biden administration’s public posture in the lead up to the attack also did not reflect a heightened sense of alarm about the potential for violence. The intelligence community’s annual assessment of worldwide threats, released in February, does not mention Hamas.

“The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said at The Atlantic Festival on September 29.

“Challenges remain,” Sullivan said, citing “tensions between Israelis and Palestinians. “But the amount of time that I have to spend on crisis and conflict in the Middle East today compared to any of my predecessors going back to 9/11 is significantly reduced.”

Hamas had refrained from entering two smaller cross-border skirmishes within the last year between another Palestinian militant group and Israel. Israel believed that its policy of offering work permits to Gazans and allowed Qatari money into the country had given Hamas something to lose — and lulled the group into quiescence.

“Hamas is very, very restrained and understands the implications of further defiance,” Tzachi Hanegbi, Israel’s national security adviser, told an Israeli radio channel six days before the assault.

It’s also possible that the Hamas operation was more successful than the group anticipated, one former intelligence official and another source familiar with current intelligence said.

“I think that it’s very possible, if not probable, that Hamas vastly exceeded its own expectations,” the second person said. “They thought we would mount this assault and there would be a couple dozen killed but never did they think it would rise to the level it did.”

This story has been updated with a response from the Biden administration.

[rothaer]

The crucial point is not that much, if there was a warning. There was also a correct warning to Germany about the Normandy being the place of the invasion in 1944 and there was also a correct warning to the Soviet Union about the German attack in 1941. The question is how many other and false informations and warnings you also get in that period of time. A correct warning doesn't help you if you also get 500 other warnings, many of which are not correct or not that important.