A genetic history of the Balkans from Roman frontier to Slavic migrations

**~~gixajo~~** · 12-09-2023, 09:50 PM

Ancient Standard Model results:

Spoiler!

**~~Scarface F~~** · 12-09-2023, 10:00 PM

Originally Posted by Leto

These Slavs do not plot with Lithuanians. I assume Moldovan_o is some kind of Slavo-Moldovan mix.

Yes, they seem mixed.

**~~gixajo~~** · 12-09-2023, 10:03 PM

Just as curiosity , samples with highest % in some components:

56.2% Yamnaya

SRB_ViminaciumPecine:I15533__AD_306__Cov_17.22%

54.0% Yamnaya

SRB_Kormadin:I27296__AD_523__Cov_70.38%

72.8% Barcin_N

SRB_ViminaciumPirivoj:I15510__AD_250__Cov_46.42%

20.8% WHGlow coverage

CZE_EMA:I5026__AD_750__Cov_5.28%

20.4 WHG low coverage

SRB_ViminaciumPirivoj:I15516__AD_181__Cov_17.30%

19.6% WHG

SVK_EMA:I12991__AD_817__Cov_63.63%

67.8%Tepecik_Ciftlik_N

HRV_TrogirDragulin:I26704__AD_100__Cov_75.97%

27.2% Levant PPNB

SRB_TimacumSlog:I15551__AD_305__Cov_32.15%

**Leto** · 12-09-2023, 10:18 PM

Originally Posted by Scarface F

Yes, they seem mixed.

How come they are and with what? Those people were born in the 9th century. For reference the Rurikid dynasty was founded around 862 and the first documented monarch of Poland was born in 930. Maybe the Slavs weren't some monolithic blob to begin with? I'm personally less interested in some hypothetical forest-dwellers from 500 AD, my interest is rather to determine how close modern ethnic groups such as the Russians and others are to their historically documented medieval ancestors 'cause I know my nation didn't exist 1,500 years ago anyway.

**Leto** · 12-09-2023, 10:21 PM

Also what do they mean by the Pontic-Kazakh steppe? I don't see any significantly East Eurasian or Turkic samples in the list (3-4% Han doesn't count if the coverage is low).

**~~Scarface F~~** · 12-09-2023, 10:35 PM

Originally Posted by Leto

Also what do they mean by the Pontic-Kazakh steppe? I don't see any significantly East Eurasian or Turkic samples in the list (3-4% Han doesn't count if the coverage is low).

Paper mentiones Germanics in the Panonnian region mixed with Schyto-Sarmatians but didn't leave trace in Balkan Slav gene pool (they did in Slovenes and NW Croats tho, but without Iranic part, yet those pops weren't subject of the study).

Schyto-Sarmatians don't need to be very mong.

**Karol Klačansky** · 12-09-2023, 11:29 PM

Originally Posted by Leto

But how early? I think 500 AD and, say, 1000 are very different periods. The Slovak samples are from
the time when the first Slavic states began to emerge.

My father compared to the samples
Distance to: KarolFather_scaled
0.02608681 HRV_Gornji:I34980__AD_1250__Cov_95.43%
0.02632818 CZE_EMA:I4137__AD_721__Cov_61.55%
0.02778756 HRV_Gornji:I35012__AD_1204__Cov_91.96%
0.02904982 SVK_EMA:I4803__AD_820__Cov_67.13%
0.03310612 SRB_TimacumKuline:I15537__AD_900__Cov_36.74%
0.03404699 HRV_Jagodnjak:I26747__AD_723__Cov_76.70%
0.03508714 SVK_EMA:I13458__AD_843__Cov_70.89%
0.03547436 AUT_EMA:I15232__AD_838__Cov_68.37%
0.03686648 HRV_Gornji:I35095__AD_1100__Cov_94.94%
0.03736916 HRV_Gornji:I35010__AD_1100__Cov_95.20%
0.03883122 HRV_Nustar:I28390__AD_847__Cov_72.34%
0.04061188 HRV_Cepinski:I35081__AD_760__Cov_96.32%
0.04145183 SRB_Gomolava:I1116__AD_931__Cov_93.70%
0.04249493 SVK_EMA:I12991__AD_817__Cov_63.63%
0.04328943 SRB_Kormadin:I27295__AD_500__Cov_70.76%
0.04491825 HRV_Gornji:I35008__AD_1700__Cov_95.23%
0.04492393 HRV_Gornji:I35014__AD_1100__Cov_27.02%
0.04515893 SRB_ViminaciumGrobalja:I32305__AD_100__Cov_80.50%
0.04576502 HRV_Jagodnjak:I26745__AD_724__Cov_74.55%
0.04926751 SRB_Lepenski:I5404__AD_1465__Cov_32.56%
0.05017634 SRB_ViminaciumGrobalja:I15520__AD_254__Cov_44.25%
0.05224064 HRV_Brekinjova:I26748__AD_838__Cov_73.30%
0.05252409 HRV_SisakPogorelec:I26761__AD_375__Cov_11.25%
0.05450626 HRV_SisakPogorelec:I28446__AD_375__Cov_66.27%
0.05627537 SRB_ViminaciumSvetinja:I32299__AD_1200__Cov_41.87%

Target: KarolFather_scaled
Distance: 0.9984% / 0.00998435
42.6 SVK_EMA
18.0 SRB_Kormadin
12.6 CZE_EMA
5.8 HRV_Cepinski
5.2 HRV_Osijek
3.8 SRB_ViminaciumGrobalja
3.0 SRB_Mediana
2.8 SRB_ViminaciumRit
2.0 SRB_TimacumSlog
1.8 HRV_Gornji
1.6 HRV_Jagodnjak
0.8 SRB_TimacumKuline

very low distance with my father.

My results

Distance to: Karol_scaled
0.03171459 HRV_Gornji:I34980__AD_1250__Cov_95.43%
0.03172721 HRV_Cepinski:I35081__AD_760__Cov_96.32%
0.03577991 HRV_Gornji:I35012__AD_1204__Cov_91.96%
0.03587785 HRV_Jagodnjak:I26747__AD_723__Cov_76.70%
0.03825691 SVK_EMA:I4803__AD_820__Cov_67.13%
0.03844601 CZE_EMA:I4137__AD_721__Cov_61.55%
0.04136329 AUT_EMA:I15232__AD_838__Cov_68.37%
0.04208647 SRB_Kormadin:I27295__AD_500__Cov_70.76%
0.04502969 HRV_Gornji:I35095__AD_1100__Cov_94.94%
0.04554121 SRB_TimacumKuline:I15537__AD_900__Cov_36.74%
0.04812705 HRV_Gornji:I35010__AD_1100__Cov_95.20%
0.04819127 SVK_EMA:I13458__AD_843__Cov_70.89%
0.04865081 SRB_ViminaciumGrobalja:I32305__AD_100__Cov_80.50%
0.04898005 HRV_Nustar:I28390__AD_847__Cov_72.34%
0.04913362 SVK_EMA:I12991__AD_817__Cov_63.63%
0.05084319 SRB_Gomolava:I1116__AD_931__Cov_93.70%
0.05364396 SRB_ViminaciumGrobalja:I15520__AD_254__Cov_44.25%
0.05396181 HRV_Gornji:I35014__AD_1100__Cov_27.02%
0.05508703 HRV_Gornji:I35008__AD_1700__Cov_95.23%
0.05627718 SRB_Mediana:I15549__AD_352__Cov_38.02%
0.05751957 SRB_Lepenski:I5404__AD_1465__Cov_32.56%
0.05806128 HRV_Jagodnjak:I26745__AD_724__Cov_74.55%
0.06030166 SRB_ViminaciumSvetinja:I32299__AD_1200__Cov_41.87%
0.06139954 HRV_TrogirDobric:I26719__AD_250__Cov_45.94%
0.06146704 HRV_SisakPogorelec:I28446__AD_375__Cov_66.27%

Target: Karol_scaled
Distance: 1.6735% / 0.01673531
31.6 SVK_EMA
31.4 HRV_Cepinski
8.0 SRB_TimacumKuline
7.6 SRB_Mediana
6.6 HRV_Osijek
5.2 HRV_Gornji
3.2 HRV_TrogirDobric
2.8 SRB_ViminaciumPirivoj
1.8 CZE_EMA
1.8 SRB_ViminaciumGrobalja

**Karol Klačansky** · 12-10-2023, 12:08 PM

Originally Posted by Leto

How come they are and with what? Those people were born in the 9th century. For reference the Rurikid dynasty was founded around 862 and the first documented monarch of Poland was born in 930. Maybe the Slavs weren't some monolithic blob to begin with? I'm personally less interested in some hypothetical forest-dwellers from 500 AD, my interest is rather to determine how close modern ethnic groups such as the Russians and others are to their historically documented medieval ancestors 'cause I know my nation didn't exist 1,500 years ago anyway.

seems like slovaks are pretty close to their medieval ancestors

**Dušan** · 12-10-2023, 12:34 PM

Originally Posted by Voskos

Maybe these warriors expelled the natives. Don't forget that the women chose the slavic elites instead of the locals, women seek for status. This caused a selection for slavic people. But yeah, 3%-5% sounds crazy. I suppose there were several slavic waves as well, coupled to other tribes that arrived there and made modern descendants score eastern european components.

There is signifaciant percentage of pre-Slavic Balkan Y-haplogroups among modern South Slavs.
So neither there was expelling, neither women selectional choosing.

It was simply accepted and incorporated pre-Slavic population with arrived Slavs and random mixing with them.

**~~Scarface F~~** · 12-10-2023, 02:16 PM

Originally Posted by Leto

How come they are and with what? Those people were born in the 9th century. For reference the Rurikid dynasty was founded around 862 and the first documented monarch of Poland was born in 930. Maybe the Slavs weren't some monolithic blob to begin with? I'm personally less interested in some hypothetical forest-dwellers from 500 AD, my interest is rather to determine how close modern ethnic groups such as the Russians and others are to their historically documented medieval ancestors 'cause I know my nation didn't exist 1,500 years ago anyway.

9th century is centuries after proto-Slavic

Early Common Slavic or simply Early Slavic (c. 300–600): The early, uniform stage of Common Slavic, but also the beginning of a longer period of rapid phonological change. As there are no dialectal distinctions reconstructible from this period or earlier, this is the period for which a single common ancestor (that is, "Proto-Slavic proper") can be reconstructed.

Still we have one Czech and one Slovak sample that are fully Slavic.

Distance to: SVK_EMA:I12991__AD_817__Cov_63.63%
0.03272318 Lithuanian_VA
0.03463454 Lithuanian_PA
0.03544228 Ukrainian_Chernihiv
0.03580988 Lithuanian_RA
0.03618819 Russian_Belgorod
0.03619616 Russian_Pskov
0.03651561 Ukrainian_Rivne
0.03732204 Russian_Kursk
0.03897118 Ukrainian_Dnipro
0.03897366 Cossack_Kuban
0.03947328 Russian_Kaluga
0.03992385 Russian_Tver
0.03996175 Russian_Voronez
0.04002751 Ukrainian_Zhytomyr
0.04054577 Belarusian
0.04111744 Cossack_Ukrainian
0.04137846 Russian_Ryazan
0.04141335 Polish
0.04151649 Lithuanian_SZ
0.04163983 Russian_Smolensk
0.04202072 Sorb_Niederlausitz
0.04240149 Slovakian
0.04257579 Russian_Orel
0.04414778 Russian_Yaroslavl
0.04414853 Estonian

Distance to: CZE_EMA:I5026__AD_750__Cov_5.28%
0.02175865 Lithuanian_RA
0.02338556 Lithuanian_PA
0.02431176 Lithuanian_VA
0.02468532 Lithuanian_VZ
0.02506101 Lithuanian_SZ
0.02615259 Latvian
0.02856028 Lithuanian_PZ
0.02984969 Belarusian
0.03155386 Russian_Pskov
0.03384965 Russian_Smolensk
0.03575602 Estonian
0.03600365 Ukrainian_Chernihiv
0.03640744 Russian_Kaluga
0.03828280 Russian_Voronez
0.03841723 Russian_Kursk
0.03851320 Ukrainian_Rivne
0.03915058 Russian_Orel
0.03973241 Ukrainian_Sumy
0.03990386 Ukrainian_Zhytomyr
0.04001660 Russian_Tver
0.04128374 Russian_Belgorod
0.04190304 Ukrainian_Dnipro
0.04225380 Russian_Yaroslavl
0.04282819 Cossack_Ukrainian
0.04337294 Polish_Kashubian

There were different people others could mix with, Celts, Germanics, Dacians etc.
Czech sample is very low coverage, so for modeling I would use only Slovak one.