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The original article in Hungarian
Many palestinians think that Israel might lose on the battlefield but in a "demographic race". Most people believe that an average Palestinian Arab woman gives birth to more children than an average Israeli Jewish woman. This is indeed true, however, Israel is not as demographically endangered as many of us would think.
Latest statistics and predictions by the United Nations tell us, that– if the trends in fertility won't change any time soon – then the population of the Jewish state will drastically increase in the next century. While Europe is facing a demographic catastrophe, and fewer and fewer children are born into Arab, Iranian and Turkish families, the fertility rate of Israel seems to be on an increase. It's unbelievable, but it's predicted that in the next century, Israel - with it's current population of 7-8 millions of people - will have more young people (between the age of 15-24) than, than Turkey (which has a total population of 74 million), Iran (which has a total population of 77 million), or even the most populated European country of today.
The chart below shows the number of people between 15 and 24 in each country, and the predictions on the increase or decrease (To get accurate results, multiple the population numbers by 1000.)
The source of the chart: United Nations Population Division
If the current fertility rates don't change, then the number of people between 15 and 24 is predicted reach the number of 25 million in Israel by the end of this century. It sounds unbelievable indeed, but currently Iran's fertility rate is only 1,7, Turkey has a fertility rate of only 1,5, and the will to have children is declining in both nations. (Fertility rate means the average number of children per woman. A fertility rate of 2,1 is the minimal required to sustain a culture. A fertility rate below 2,1 is often called "sub-replacement rate", because it's below the replacement rate, 2,1) In contrast, an average Israeli woman gives birth to two or three children.
Off course, there are arabs in Israel as well, and their will to have children isn't that low either. However, Jews are not so far behind: while secular jewish women have a fertility rate of 2,6 (an average number of 2,6 children per woman), orthodox jewish families usually have around 7-8 children. So, an average number of 3 children are born per women in Israel, which means that among all modern Industrialized nations, Israel has the highest fertility rate.
What is the reason for Jews to be so willing to have children? First of all, Israeli people - as the leaders of the Western "World Empire" - are optimistic and confident. Why not? The state of Israel has an advanced economy, it counts as a military superpower, not to mention that – thanks to Jewish lobby – Israel keeps Europe and America under her influence. The peoples of America and Europe, and the muslim peoples all predict a dark future for themselves. In the Western World there are many other reasons for low fertility rate as well: the most important example is liberalism, which is spread and promoted all around the world, except in Israel: Jews don't want liberalism to infect their people and to ruin everything for them.
Let's see an other chart, which also contains Hungary. The picture is very scary: as we can see, at the end of this century, the population of Hungary is predicted to sink below 6 million. This basicly means the death of a nation, because the majority of that 6 million will be gypsys, and the young hungarians will be very rare. The fact that other European nations are "following" us into this pathway to Doom is a cold comfort. In contrast – if we can trust the predictions – Israel will grow stronger and it's population will grow bigger.
The chart below shows the population of Israel and some Eastern European countries between 1950 and 2100. (The numbers of the left still need to be multiplied by 1000.)
The data tells us that – if the current trend continues – Israeli people will have an average age of 33 by the end of the century, while the citizens of Poland will have around 57. A big surprise is that muslim countries are also predicted to suffer from ageing, and the fact that by 2100, the average age in Turkey and Iran will be above 40, while it will be strongly above 50 in Europe. The next chart shows the average age in Iran, Turkey, Israel and Europe.
Iranian and Turkish politicians have already discovered the danger „If the current tendencies go on like this, there will be a catastrophe by 2038” – announced Recep Tajip Erdogan, Prime Minister of Turkey in the May of 2010. (Although we don't know why does Erdogan predict 2038 as the "critical year", Turkey's population is predicted to decline so much that it will be very difficult to reverse the population decline.). Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of Iran warned his fellow Iranians again: the complete death of the Iranian nation is predicted, if the Iranian people are unsuccessful at reversing the demographic change any time soon.
Off course, some predictions are much more optimistic, which say that, we Hungarians will have a population around 8 million in 2100, and that the extinction of Europe won't be as fast as most people predict. However, it is scary to even think about what will Europe - and Hungary - look like in the next 200 years, even if we believe in the more optimistic predictions.
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