The most exciting moments of the first round of the presidential election were to be had in the battle for the second run-off spot between the Greens' candidate Pekka Haavisto and Paavo Väyrynen of the opposition Centre Party.

On the advance voting, released as the polls closed at 20:00 on Sunday, and into the early stages of the election day count, Väyrynen enjoyed a clear lead.

As the count progressed and results came in from the large population centres of the south, Haavisto nevertheless powered past to win handily at the line.

Sauli Niinistö of the moderate conservative National Coalition Party was admittedly the overwhelming winner, but not so overwhelming that he could secure his selection on the first round of voting.

This was only to be anticipated, at least if one looked at the opinion poll readings of the last week of the campaign.

The latest poll figures also knew to prepare us for the head-to-head race between Haavisto and Väyrynen for the runner-up place. In the case of both candidates, the rising numbers in the closing stages sparked a self-reinforcing spiral, as prospective voters recognised that these two had the best chance of progressing.

Väyrynen probably captured votes from the Finns Party's Timo Soini, while Haavisto is likely to have further eroded support for the SDP's Paavo Lipponen.

Haavisto's support was also possibly fuelled by an urge amongst liberal voters to deliver a "counter-jytky" - a ballot-box backlash to the seismic shift in the political landscape that occurred in last spring's Parliamentary elections, when the populist and anti-immigration Finns Party quadrupled their vote and secured 39 of the 200 seats in the chamber.

Presidential elections are always historic in their way, but history was certainly made in these elections in the first round of voting in at least two respects: the Social Democrat hopeful fell by the wayside, and the candidate of the hitherto bantamweight-division Greens made it through to the run-off.

As it turned out, this election did not become a referendum on Finland's membership in the eurozone or a vote on municipal reforms, both of which which have exercised MPs and party leaders in recent weeks.

Or then only one in four Finnish voters actively opposes euro membership.

The two candidates who progressed both represent a Finland that is tolerant and open to Europe and the outside world. Between them they collected nearly 56% of the votes cast.

Even if Paavo Väyrynen ultimately had to be content with third place, the Centre Party leadership owe him a big debt of gratitude.

Väyrynen managed to bring "back into the fold" those conservative Centrists in the provinces who take a critical view of the euro.

The disappointment of defeat notwithstanding, Väyrynen delivered a good result and his share of the vote was greater than that secured by the Centre Party in the election defeat in April 2011.

Conversely, Timo Soini was given a reminder of political mortality.

Nevertheless, the outcome of the presidential vote cannot yet be interpreted as heralding the return of the Finns Party to their earlier diminutive size: Soini's main target since last April has always been the municipal elections of October 2012.

Sunday's vote was also historic in that it did not shape up into a battle between left and right as in all previous direct-election presidential campaigns.

Until now, the second round of voting has always seen voters choosing between a candidate of the Social Democrats or a common champion of the left on the one hand and a representative of the non-socialist camp on the other, and it has always ended in the victory of the SDP candidate.

An unbroken 30-year span in which the Social Democrats have been the party of the president - Mauno Koivisto, Martti Ahtisaari, and Tarja Halonen - is now at an end.

The combined support of the candidates of the left reached a paltry 12.2%.

Paavo Lipponen's insipid showing, putting him in fifth place with 6.7% of the votes, is a humiliation for the former Prime Minister.

Within the SDP, those in the dock after the defeat are likely to include at least the party secretary Mikael Jungner, who may have to make good on his promise to resign, even if the very worst opinion poll predictions did not come to pass.

And what of the way forward from here? Niinistö's dominance looks clear enough, but it is unlikely that he will enjoy such a crushing majority in a second round as the polls have thus far indicated.

A wide variety of factors can influence the outcome of the run-off: some of Niinistö's supporters may stay at home in the belief that the result is already in the bag.

Haavisto, meanwhile, may pick up some sympathy votes because he is the obvious underdog.

With nothing better on offer for them, Haavisto may also become the candidate of the left, even though he is not among the left-wingers within his own party.

Haavisto is likely to pick up the majority of those votes given to the Left Alliance's Paavo Arhinmäki, along with some of those won by Lipponen and by the Swedish People's Party's Eva Biaudet.

Niinistö is likely in the same way to collect votes cast for Lipponen and Biaudet, and some of those on behalf of Väyrynen, Soini, and the Christian Democrats' Sari Essayah.

A conspicuous number of the Väyrynen and Soini voters may elect to stay at home for the second round, considering that there is no suitable EU-sceptic candidate left for them to support.

From the perspective of us voters, the best thing about the election on Sunday is that it gives us a chance to vote again in a couple of weeks.

It is worth exercising that opportunity.

The modest first round turnout of 72.7% probably indicates that many felt - wrongly - that the election was already a done deal.


Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 23.1.2012
http://www.hs.fi/english/article/EDI.../1135270247610