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Thread: What-if scenario : hard austerity crisis

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    Default What-if scenario : hard austerity crisis

    (I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this kind of hypothetical scenario. If there is a better place for it, please tell me so.)

    Here is a scenario which I fear is not that impossible, and I really would like to read what you think will happen in Europe, especially the "welfare state" Europe, that is urbanized at 75%.

    The premise is a drastic financial and monetary crisis, which trigger following measures and effects :
    - The current value of money and savings is cut by half.
    - This is coupled by high inflation, meaning you can't set money aside, and the value of savings is eroding fast.
    - Unemployment checks and pensions drop to an absolute survival level. You receive just enough to buy WW2-level rationing in foodstuff, clothing, soap, and water.
    - Prices for fuel for transportation and heating skyrocket. Electricity is rationned at 10 hours per day for individuals, from 8PM to 6AM. Brownouts are not seldom.
    - Civil servants are to work part-time, and receive part-time wages of course.
    - Due to a severe drop in demand, many "McJobs" and tertiary jobs (seller, driver etc.) are permanently lost.

    On top of that, the transition period between our current situation and the situation depicted above is very short, about one month.

    How do you think this transition will look in terms of :
    - civil unrest ?
    - criminality ?
    - ethnic segregation / regrouping ?
    - geographical changes (european suburbia, high-rise ghettos etc.)
    - general view on life and social values ?
    - spiritual life and lack of (suicide, drugs etc.)
    and any other aspect you deem relevant.

    Looking forward to read your ideas ! up

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    For starters, I believe that in such a situation the occupancy of flats and house would change : more people would live together.

    This would lead to the formation or groups larger than families, but not yet tribes, groups that would function as an economic entity : diverse source of revenues, redistributed by dominant individuals within the structure. Ethnicity would be a major element by which people would come together.

    Isolated individuals living in immediate proximity of these groups would be integrated in a second-tier economic role : sharing the surveillance of kids, grouping purchases, sharing waiting line time at the stores etc. Those who would not integrate themselves would suffer from diverse forms of exclusions and harassment.

    I would also expect more "nuclear families" to explode, due to the stresses of the situation (permanent unemployment, drastic changes in the lifestyle and perceived social worth), but also to dysfunctionality (having married someone for their looks, having adopted values striaght out TV that are not functional), lack of loyalty.

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    use less magic. something led to those conclusions, work thru the cause and effect and that may turn into a worthwhile discussion.

    Forexample it is highly unlikely to see both a internal devaluation and part time working civil servants. The latter being really impossible. However, massive inflation may still happen. (to allow for a nullification of the debt),

    What would be side-effect be of that? Would the trade collapse (as one component is made here and another there and suddenly the computer processors from taiwan can no longer be afforded.). That could actually lead to higher employment.. but also troubled exports as the foreign customers cannot sell.. and thus cannot buy... and yet the exports would be cheaper.
    All of which leads to massive reorganisations in the economy, old companies go under and are replaced by startups, people fired but finding wholly new jobs.

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