Labour and UKIP neck and neck, according to poll

[Treffie]

Labour below 20 and Tories below 30 in Euro-poll

James Forsyth 10:37pm

Labour has fallen to its lowest ever opinion poll rating in a YouGov poll for The Sun. On the general election question, the Tories were at 41 down two from the last YouGov poll, Labour on 22 down five and the Lib Dems up one on 19. The Sun calculates that this would deliver the Tories a majority of 152. However, the poll contains numbers that should worry the Tories and show just how badly the main parties have been hurt by the expenses scandal. In the last week support for them at European elections has dropped nine points to 28. Labour is down on 19 tied with UKIP who have surged 12 points in the last week. Encouragingly, it seems to be UKIP not the BNP, whose rating is unchanged, who is benefiting from the public’s anger over expenses.

This poll and the events of the past fortnight are making me think that Labour might get rid of Brown after all. The option of drafting in Alan Johnson much as the Tories brought in Michael Howard in November 2003 must look more appealing by the day to Labour backbenchers. Indeed, the consequences of carrying on as things are, are now so dire for Labour that one suspects their preparedness to go through bloody process of removing Brown from Downing Street is increasing.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehou...europoll.thtml

[Catuvellaunian]

I've heard UKIP are pro-immigration, they certainly seem have muslim and non-white members, but better them than liebour anyday.

[Freomæg]

This is a lie. It serves 2 purposes:

1) Attempts to create a self-fulfilling prophecy whereby if people think the BNP will do poorly and UKIP will do well, then that's what will happen.

2) If the inevitable vote-fiddling happens and the BNP are awarded a low percentage of the vote, the Establishment can point to this opinion poll and say "look, they were predicted to do poorly anyway. Nothing to see here - move along!".

[Sigurd]

Many people also are "closet BNP voters" who would never admit so in an official poll, with the stigma attached. Stuff like this can lead to quite adverse results.

This is less evident in Austria, where it is more "socially acceptable" to vote for the FPÖ or even the BZÖ (though I fail to see where the BZÖ are really that "right-wing" TBH) ---- but it was still evident. Opinion polls predicted up to 14% for the FPÖ and up to 8% for the BZÖ, essentially they came out with 17,7% and 11,8% (I think) respectively, in last year's GE.

[Susi]

It's because of Nigel Farrage's awesome hand gestures. And his EU-tractors speech.