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The former FM of Greek Cyprus, Nicos Rolandis says that Cyprus is a tiny country with next to none importance in world economy but they always acted without thinking for the future and stepped into trouble in the end. He basically says that Greek Cypriot state failed in most of the things and if they dont change their natural gas policy in the mediterranean, they will face their doom in the next 30 years because Turkey would most likely punish them again for that, just like it happened in 1974. He also blames the coalition of Greece and Greek Cypriot nationalists for organizing a coup d`etat in the island in favor of the inclusion of Cyprus to Greek mainland state.
Presidents of Europe, beggars and oilmen
IN MAY 2004 Cyprus acceded to the European Union, together with nine other countries: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland, Hungary and Malta. At that time we were the jewel in the crown of these new members. We were the financially strong and affluent.
Eight years on, those nine countries are managing to survive albeit with some difficulties, but without memoranda. Unfortunately we, the strong ones of the past, have been running around, from Moscow to Beijing, unsuccessfully asking for money before ending up on the inhospitable path of the troika.
President Demetris Christofias’ notion of a “society of justice” has failed to come to fruition. Of course the president ought to have known that this world of ours is not and has never been the land of Canaan, the “Promised Land”, and the smiling old friend Demetris of 2008, who believed that his five-year term would go well and his second term even better, has been transformed into a “crying president” at the end of 2012.
So we are on the move, running in the streets and avenues of Europe, with the crown of the European president on our head, clad in the Arab jellaba of the oilman yet at the same time begging for money. Our appearance is a paradox, which is very rare, even in this peculiar world of ours.
We are a very small country. The size of our economy (€17 billion or US$22 billion) is a little larger than one per thousand of the EU economy ($20 trillion) and tantamount to three per ten thousand of the world economy ($60 trillion). Consequently, our contribution to the world economy affairs is almost non-existent.
However, despite our small size we have run into trouble again.
I remember, back in 1974, when our lives were turned upside down and our properties lost through events of extreme violence. At that time though, we faced the coup d’état and the Turkish invasion.
Today, who are the invaders? Unfortunately it appears that we ourselves and some of our leaders are the culprits. We have managed to cut our own throats.
It is not the first time that the Greek Cypriots and Hellenism have made wrong assessments and paid the bitter price:
We paid dearly in 1963, when we attempted to amend the constitution and instead planted the seeds of partition.
We paid dearly in 1974, when we wrongly assessed the thinking of the strong ones in the international community and the ruthlessness of Turkey. We opened the gates, through the Greek Cypriot and Greek coup d’état, for a Turkish invasion which we had considered unfeasible.
We paid dearly when we repeatedly rejected through the years the various initiatives for the solution of the Cyprus problem, which while certainly intractable has now become almost unsolvable.
We paid dearly in 1983 when we rejected the plan of the UN secretary general, despite the warnings from various quarters about the Turkish unilateral declaration of independence. (That is when I resigned from the post of foreign minister). That declared “state” is unfortunately currently upgraded by various countries.
We paid dearly in 1998, when all parties (with the exception of the Liberal Party) pursued the purchase and arrival of the S300 missiles. We thus dumped US$270 million on the mountains of Crete.
We paid dearly in 2000/2001 with the stock market.
And we have paid dearly in 2012 with the troika, whose mechanisms will demolish our lives and our economy to a great extent, even though in the present state of affairs without the troika there would be neither life nor an economy to demolish.
What causes a lot of concern today, if I judge by our negative track record is the prospect of oil and gas. So, I would like to underscore once more two basic fears of mine:
Firstly, I am certain that we are addressing the issue of hydrocarbons wrongly. We refrain from utilising them as a catalyst for the solution of the Cyprus problem and of the wider Cyprus-Greece-Turkey issues. Oil and gas will be down there in the offshore basin surrounding Cyprus for the next 30-50 years, until the reserves are pumped to the shore. They constitute large wealth for a long period of time, for a small country. But unfortunately we live next to a ruthless, mighty and dangerous predator, Turkey. I fear that, unless we correct our course of action, we shall pay just as dearly at a fatal moment in the next 30 years, as we did in all the cases I referred to above. Unfortunately for us, Turkey will find a number of pretexts to justify her possible action, as she did in the past.
Secondly, natural gas, the efforts for the extraction of which I first started back in 1998 cannot secure any financing and is not bankable at present, because we are at the very preliminary stages. This is the truth and we should have no illusions which may lead us to disastrous results.
To render natural gas commercially exploitable we must go through several vital stages.
We need one to two more drillings in block 12 to have the quantity confirmed. We need investors and financiers for the undersea pipeline and the liquefaction terminal (cost, US$1.5 billion for the pipeline and US$10-$12 billion for the terminal). In order to secure these enormous amounts we must have the quantity of the gas confirmed for the next 20-25 years, marketing and price projections for 20 to 25 years. Furthermore, an appraisal of the political and military hazards in Cyprus and in the region is also needed. The pumping of the gas must commence.
There is an old Cypriot saying, that it is “better to lose an eye rather than lose your good name”. We have unfortunately lost both. We were blinded and failed to realise our problem in time and lost our credibility.
The darkness around us may be dissolved in the medium term by the hope of financial growth, if we can secure the necessary funds. If we are prudent in its handling, I hope that we can achieve progress through natural gas after the year 2020.
Nicos Rolandis is a former foreign minister and commerce minister, MP and leader of the Liberal Party
http://www.cyprus-mail.com/opinions/...ilmen/20121223
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