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Thread: Economic News from Russia

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    Default Economic News from Russia

    http://en.rian.ru/business/20130517/...mps-to-16.html



    MOSCOW, May 17 (RIA Novosti) - Russias GDP grew just 1.6 percent in the first quarter of this year, its fifth consecutive quarterly fall, the Federal Statistics Service said on Friday.
    That is more optimistic, however, than Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach's earlier estimate of growth slowing to 1.1 percent.
    In April, the ministry reduced its annual GDP forecast from 3.6 percent to 2.4 percent.
    Russia's GDP growth slowed throughout 2012, falling from 4.8 percent in the first quarter to 4.3 percent in the second, 3 percent in the third and 2.1 percent in the fourth.
    In late April, Russian President Vladimir Putin urged the government to work out measures to boost growth and stimulate Russias faltering economy.

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    this is good explanation from RT


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    Very good. I suppose high demand for resources accounts for much of this.

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    High rate of inflation in Russia is a temporary phenomenon - expert

    Rising inflation and slowing economic growth have been on the agenda of politicians and economists in Russia lately. The latest Macro Monitor report by Ren-Cap-NES however paints a brighter picture for the months to come suggesting that growth has accelerated in Q2 to reach 2.2%, up from the 1.5% projected earlier, while inflation is set to stabilize over the second half of the year. The Voice of Russia had a chance to discuss recent economic trends and projections for the year with Konstantin Styrin, Ph.D., Renaissance Capital Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics at New Economic School in Moscow.
    The report states that YoY GDP growth in the second quarter has surpassed earlier estimates. What is your projection for the year as a whole?
    Since the beginning of the year we have expected economic growth level for the whole year to reach around 3.4-3.5%. Since then there have been a number of downward revisions of the initial forecast. Currently our estimates suggest that GDP growth will hover at the level of 2-3%. The question remains though whether the figure will be closer to the upper boundary or to the lower one. Personally, I share a more pessimistic view on the situation, since there are no clear indicators suggesting that something may spur growth considerably. Energy prices have been declining recently, meaning that Russian budget will receive less revenue from oil and gas exports.
    The authorities are now discussing measures to stimulate aggregate demand via monetary policy measures such as weakening the ruble or cutting interest rates. In my view if such measures are implemented they will have only a short-lived effect, because the economy is close to its potential level of growth.
    Could you elaborate a bit on the situation with the ruble. How serious is it for the country’s economy?
    The ruble is very close to its equilibrium level. The Central Bank has undertaken foreign exchange market interventions, which represents that the regulator is more concerned about rate of inflation that the exchange rate of the ruble.
    There are currently two factors driving the exchange rate, firstly it is energy prices on the market and secondly investor appetite for Russian assets, which is quite low at the moment. Over the past few months we have seen an outflow of funds from the Russian market.
    What is your view on inflation in Russia? What shall we expect in the coming months?
    I would say that the current relatively high level of inflation is a temporary phenomenon. Hence, I would not expect a spike in consumer price growth. The Central Bank prioritizes inflation fight in my view even in excess of what is actually required. Also this year’s harvest should be better than last year’s one again taking pressure of consumer price growth. All in all, the financial regulator should be able to keep inflation under control this year.
    Read more: http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_06_28/Hi...n-expert-3440/

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    Russia’s H2 GDP may grow 2–4% on global revival, grain harvest


    By Tatyana Labutina

    MOSCOW, Jul 8 (PRIME) -- Russia’s economy may speed up to 2.1–4.0% in July–December following an expected revival of the global economy and a good grain harvest, analysts said on Monday.

    “We have a low base effect of the same period last year. There are also chances of the domestic grain harvest being better. The world’s economy is expected to revive, and the situation with exports may improve by consequence,” Otkritie Bank chief analyst Vladimir Tikhomirov said.

    The slowdown of Russia’s economy, whose growth fell to 3.0% and 2.1% in last two quarters of 2012, and moved down further to 1.6% in January–March, has forced President Vladimir Putin, whose approval ratings have slid during the first year of his third term, to call on the government and the central bank to take measures to reverse the downward trend again and again.

    The International Monetary Fund has cut its 2013 forecast for Russia to 2.5% from 3.7%, while the Fitch rating agency has decreased its forecast to 2.2% from 3.2%.

    The Economic Development Ministry expects the GDP to speed up to 2.1% in April–June, 2.5% in July–September, and 3.4% in October–December, while the total growth for 2013 will be at 2.4% compared to 3.4% in 2012. Analysts expect the GDP to grow 2.1–3.0% in 2013.

    Some analysts also believe that the central bank, which some officials think keep its monetary policy too tight, may ease it by September, when the consumer price inflation slows down to help stimulate the economy.

    “There are chances that the monetary policy will be eased by autumn, as the consumer price inflation may subside by this time. The consumer price inflation depends on food prices, and the grain harvest is expected to be good,” Alexei Devyatov, an analyst at Uralsib Capital, said.

    The Agriculture Ministry expects Russia to harvest a bumper crop of 95.0 million tonnes of grain this agricultural year year after 70.9 million tonnes it had last year.

    The government and analysts blame stagnant investments, lower energy exports, which accounts for a significant share of Russia’s GDP, and a weaker consumer demand, on the economic slowdown.

    “The domestic consumer demand has slowed down. Investments have been stagnating since mid-2012, with the level of real investments being close to zero. Gas exports have been falling in Europe and Ukraine, showing no signals of any improvement yet,” Rosbank analyst Vladimir Tsibanov said.

    Demand for energy resources in Europe have been falling, hit by a recession in the region and partially by a mild winter weather, while the slowdown of consumer demand followed lower household incomes, analysts said.

    Capital investments into Russia’s economy decreased 0.4% in January–May, compared to a 14.0% increase in the same period of last year, and may grow only 4.6% in 2013 compared to 6.7% in 2012.

    GROWTH PROSPECTS

    Analysts agreed that any further growth of Russia’s economy strictly depends on the country’s investment climate, the improvement of which has been a long-declared goal of the authorities.

    Tikhomirov said that the economic growth in July–December will not be fundamental, as the government has no more resources to intensify it.

    “The best way out is the implementation of structural reforms and the reduction of government’s participation in the economy and state-run companies,” he said.

    The investment climate could be improved if structural reforms, which mainly envisage the transition to a non-resource economy and the development of manufacturing industries, are implemented. The upgrade requires significant long-term investment, fighting corruption, political democratization, the elimination of the administrative barriers, the reform of the legal system, and the upgrade of economic management.

    Being closely tied to energy exports, the economy will be weak in the long-term as a commodity cycle, which included higher commodity prices, is ending, unless the reforms are fulfilled, Andrei Kuznetsov from Sberbank CIB said.

    MONETARY POLICY OF NEW CHAIRPERSON

    Despite political pressure, Central Bank Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina, who took up the post in June, may follow the monetary policy established by her predecessor Sergei Ignatyev, keeping its focus on inflation, and is unlikely to take serious measures to stimulate the economic growth, analysts said.

    Nabiullina has recently said that the central bank’s instruments will not help solve Russia’s economic growth problems as they result from the absence of structural reforms and a poor investment climate. She believes in reining in inflation, which is mostly linked to non-monetary factors, to help the economy grow.

    “She will not take measures to seriously stimulate the economic growth. She will continue to target inflation,” Tsibanov said.

    Nabiullina said in mid-June that the bank may cut the rates in July–September, if the annual inflation, which peaked at 7.4% in May, exceeding the 2013 target range of 5.0–6.0%, goes down and the combination of other factors permits the bank to expect its further decrease.

    Analysts expect the annual inflation to fall to at least 6% by August in annual terms mainly due to a high base effect. Last year, a low grain harvest and the growth of the world’s grain prices pushed food prices up and inflation rose to 0.9% in June and 1.2% in July from 0.5% in May.

    This year, inflation is expected to slow down to 0.3–0.4% in June from 0.7% in May, the highest monthly level since 2008, prompted by the growth of food prices and railroad tariffs. The annual inflation is expected to slow down to 6.8% in June from 7.4% in May.

    If the price rise slows down, the central bank may cut its key rates by 0.25 percentage points in August and then take a pause until September–October, some analysts said.

    “Nabiullina is likely to reduce the bank’s key rates by 0.25% in August, as the annual consumer price inflation will fall to at least 6%,” Tsibanov said.

    Analysts believe that the possibility of changing the bank’s monetary policy in July is low, as the month-on-month inflation will still be quite high due to the latest increase of natural monopolies prices.

    “Pressure exerted by Putin is unlikely to reach such a level where Nabiullina will have to cut rates as early as July,” Devyatov said.

    The central bank has kept the refinancing rate unchanged at 8.25% since September 2012.

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    The grain harvests in Russia and America have a very noticeable affect on world food prices since these are two of the largest producers. If Russia became more efficient at farming it could potentially boost yields greatly, currently it is one of the top producers due to the large area dedicated to wheat.




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    Good news. About 20 more of these mis speculations and maybe Russia can reach western standards .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Albion View Post
    The grain harvests in Russia and America have a very noticeable affect on world food prices since these are two of the largest producers. If Russia became more efficient at farming it could potentially boost yields greatly, currently it is one of the top producers due to the large area dedicated to wheat.



    if russia reaches full potential of agriculture it can print money as much as it can not worrying about inflation.

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