Latvia: Left bloc wins huge vote amid austerity

[Pure ja]

As I said they didn't had a parent Bank to bail them out.

As I said, if those were still independent banks, not Scandinavian bought, then those independent banks would have had ample reserves to draw from - so no trouble. The reserves that Scandinavian banks used during the crisis were smaller than the reserves accrued from the Baltics before the crisis. Shoud I repeat it again?

Can you explain what you mean by those taxes and holes? Which taxes are those and how does this mechanism works exactly. Also, assuming this is correct which it isn't, what is the benefit of being some Scandinavian colony if that means having your money pumped out and leaving you poor? Thats not really independence, sounds worse that soviet days. The real reason why we have such a Scandinavian domination is that we lack capital and they don't.

Read above. We had capital. We sold it to Scandinavian banks cheaply.
But if we transfer all our money from the now Scandinavian banks to our own banks, then we will have capital again. But we will not have integration with the Nordics, thus very little foreign interest to stand against Russia.

I dont fallow, what do you mean by 1990's companies?

Many of the privatized companies in the Baltics were privatized by KGB money. You should know. In fact, I believe that you know, but refuse to show it.

You do understand that under this "Russian money" there are thousands of depositors and businesses, its not one guy, its thousands of individuals each with its own head on shoulders and own property which this person does not want to loose. Are you suggesting that FSB/GRU individually contacted all those people and forced them to take out money? That is tinfoil hat 101.

Based on power law distributions (Pareto 80:20, Benford, etc.), one only needs to influence the top wealthy 10-20%.
And KGB/FSB is not tinfoil hat 101. Estonians know, because the Russian imperial (counter)intelligence was started by Karl Ernst von Baer.
All that is needed is a friendly reminder / suggestion from the Russian Tax Office, maybe they will even mention Khodorkovsky.

How are you aligned with German business cycle when Germany has almost 0 growth now but you have highest growth in EU like Latvia? Seems more aligned with us. Gimme more on this Latvia aligned with Russia info, maybe some credible source, sounds really silly so far.

That is just one quarter. When you look at more quarters, then you can see the alignment. This new growth (not old growth, as you assumed) might be temporary.

A lot of Russian money is in Scandinavian branches of banks in Latvia as well, we still have 50% of deposits in banks from none residents, mainly CIS countries. Your impression is just wrong.

The money numbers are looking right into your eyes and yet you continue to refuse to accept the reality.
My impression is irrelevant. That more than 50% of deposits in Latvia is relevant.

[Pure ja]

We are not as divided as Eesti, Latvians are not Estonians,...?

You are just as divided as Estonia, in fact even more so.

Wait what?

If you are actively working against the majority of ethnic latvians and for Russian interests, then you could effectively be for genocide of ethnic latvians.

Left means socialist policies, more subsidies, more gov. intervention, more taxes for the rich.

Just the 1st and last. The middle ones are generic.
And even the 1st and the last are just token interests.

Right means more free market less benefits to boost emplyment and productivity.

In practice, right often means less free market. The benefits are debatable.

Center means not leaning to any of those extremes and taking whats good from both sides.

Center means fu**ing all sides of people equally (taking from both sides). All except the very rich, including themselves.

Where do you got this info from, because thats just wrong.

Restructuring means changing the loan deal and reducing the debt payed back, basically forcing losses on the lender. Gov. takes all kinds of debt every year they run a budget with deficit. Some of them are 10 year bonds some less, like 1 year bonds. The total gov. debt as % of GDP you see is a cummulative debt of all those debts taken during many years, they have different maturity. But I can assure you Greece has paid several of them during crisis of the last 6 years because most of them are 10 year bonds and Greece has been borrowing for many decades. Because its economy is falling and it cant borrow in markets EU and IMF lends Greece money to pay those debts and additional budget expenses in doing so the total debt actually increases.

Loans consist of the actual loans + accrued interest.
If Greece had paid anything back, at least one component would have had to diminish (in absolute numbers) without a haircut. That hasn't happened. It has only marginally happened via haircuts.

You mean higher because if you invest money as deposit or gov. bond you want a higher yield from it not lower, at least if youre not insane.

No, I mean lower, because otherwise the would be no point for the government to take a loan (give a bond) with a higher interest.
I was looking from the government side.

[Citizen]

As I said, if those were still independent banks, not Scandinavian bought, then those independent banks would have had ample reserves to draw from - so no trouble. The reserves that Scandinavian banks used during the crisis were smaller than the reserves accrued from the Baltics before the crisis. Shoud I repeat it again?

That is your opinion based on wel, nothing it is also actually quit irrelevant to the discussion.

Read above. We had capital. We sold it to Scandinavian banks cheaply.
But if we transfer all our money from the now Scandinavian banks to our own banks, then we will have capital again. But we will not have integration with the Nordics, thus very little foreign interest to stand against Russia.

No we didn't, Baltics are poor so we have no capital, by capital I mean money not just banks can lend but also money people and businesses have. But please explain me all the crap about tax holes you mentioned earlier and how they work, Im dying to know Also what is the point of being a Scandinavian slave instead of Russian?

Many of the privatized companies in the Baltics were privatized by KGB money. You should know. In fact, I believe that you know, but refuse to show it.

No, I don't. Name a single company that was privatized by KGB in Latvia.

Based on power law distributions (Pareto 80:20, Benford, etc.), one only needs to influence the top wealthy 10-20%.
And KGB/FSB is not tinfoil hat 101. Estonians know, because the Russian imperial (counter)intelligence was started by Karl Ernst von Baer.
All that is needed is a friendly reminder / suggestion from the Russian Tax Office, maybe they will even mention Khodorkovsky.

So they did that with thousands of people and nobody secretly leaked to media? Really? Have you got any idea how many people that would involve? This sounds just as crazy as the 911 truthers...

That is just one quarter. When you look at more quarters, then you can see the alignment. This new growth (not old growth, as you assumed) might be temporary.

Please show me with some graphs how we align with Russia otherwise its all BS.

The money numbers are looking right into your eyes and yet you continue to refuse to accept the reality.
My impression is irrelevant. That more than 50% of deposits in Latvia is relevant.

They are depositors, they earn money here, actually a lot of them place it here for the Russian gov. not to get to them not because it is in the interests of Russian gov. Jesus...

You are just as divided as Estonia, in fact even more so.

No, we are not, come and see for yourself.

If you are actively working against the majority of ethnic latvians and for Russian interests, then you could effectively be for genocide of ethnic latvians.

Im ethnic Latvian not Russian...

Loans consist of the actual loans + accrued interest.
If Greece had paid anything back, at least one component would have had to diminish (in absolute numbers) without a haircut. That hasn't happened. It has only marginally happened via haircuts.

You make no sense.

No, I mean lower, because otherwise the would be no point for the government to take a loan (give a bond) with a higher interest.
I was looking from the government side.

Nobody will buy gov. bonds like we have, with 0.3% rate a year.

[Citizen]

Estonia has paid nothing from the state budget (from the tax money, so to speak), so far.
The amount that was "paid" was at first taken as a new loan and then given to Brussels.

The only real money that Estonia has "paid" so far to the EU is the currency reserves used to cover the 110% of M0 money of Estonian kroons. And I am not even quite sure if that was paid or if it still sits in the chambers of the Bank of Estonia. So what Estonia has actually paid, was 100% related to Estonia joining the Eurozone, and 0% related to any "payments" to any money lending fund, be it ESFS or ESM or whatever.

Let me try to make the point again in the most simple terms.

Estonia is willing to borrow money for Greece, on behalf of Greece - that will possibly raise Estonian foreign debt from 10% up to 100% in the future.

You have already paid in both EFSF and ESM, of course you took a loan to finance it because otherwise you would have to cut salaries and raise taxes for Estonians to pay into them. When you paid in EFSF in 2011 your debt almost doubled, thats real money you will have to pay back, or how do you imagine it?
http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/estonia-economy.nlc
You have also paid into ESM, ESM is composed of paid in capital (you pay now not guarantee) and a guarantee if the already paid in capital is not sufficient. Estonia has already paid in capital 148.8 million euros and will guarantee 1.3 billion. For Latvia it will be 200 million and 1.4 billion if we enter. 148.8 is something you have already borrowed money for to pay in.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europea...lity_Mechanism
There is a nice table there with the numbers and don't say its wikipedia because it has links to the same numbers in EU official sites.

So now that we are clear that you have borrowed real money to pay into ESM and EFSF how do you imagine you will not pay it? You think you can weasel out of the deal when the bond holders will come to you and ask the money. Will you say - "well we borrowed that money for ESM and EFSF that lent it to Greece sh you go ask them?" Thats not gonna cut it, you will have to pay that money back when the bonds mature. And even if Greece pays back its loans from EFSF and ESM they will not go back to you but to those funds. Buf if Greece is a failed state as you say, then it will not be able to do so and the money will be lost.

But Estonia is NOT willing to actually pay real money for Greece, nor to actually pay on behalf of Greece - such abovementioned new loans will only be paid by Greece, if at all.

The end result is that Estonia is only losing its money loaning ability and financial reputation, not any actual money. And it will make more sure that when Greece fails, the rest of the EU (and Estonia) will fail as well.

First of all, real nice deal, join eurozone and then go down with Greece for no reason. Second you have signed a treaty that compels you to make a 1.3 billion loan if needed, if you fail to do so your country is gone, does that sound like a good deal to you, really?

[Pure ja]

You have already paid in both EFSF and ESM, of course you took a loan to finance it because otherwise you would have to cut salaries and raise taxes for Estonians to pay into them. When you paid in EFSF in 2011 your debt almost doubled, thats real money you will have to pay back, or how do you imagine it?
http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/estonia-economy.nlc
You have also paid into ESM, ESM is composed of paid in capital (you pay now not guarantee) and a guarantee if the already paid in capital is not sufficient. Estonia has already paid in capital 148.8 million euros and will guarantee 1.3 billion. For Latvia it will be 200 million and 1.4 billion if we enter. 148.8 is something you have already borrowed money for to pay in.

Precisely. We have paid with borrowed money. Borrowed money is NOT real money, it is BORROWED. Future will tell whether Estonia will pay back the loan. I say that Estonia will pay the loan back only if Greece will pay back the loan they got from Estonia via ESFS and ESM.

Immediate payments to ESFS and to ESM were done using BORROWED money (a new loan), not with real money.
Loan guarantees are essentially a risk of a new future loan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europea...lity_Mechanism
There is a nice table there with the numbers and don't say its wikipedia because it has links to the same numbers in EU official sites.

So now that we are clear that you have borrowed real money to pay into ESM and EFSF how do you imagine you will not pay it? You think you can weasel out of the deal when the bond holders will come to you and ask the money. Will you say - "well we borrowed that money for ESM and EFSF that lent it to Greece sh you go ask them?" Thats not gonna cut it, you will have to pay that money back when the bonds mature. And even if Greece pays back its loans from EFSF and ESM they will not go back to you but to those funds. Buf if Greece is a failed state as you say, then it will not be able to do so and the money will be lost.

If Greece won't pay then we will either take new loans to restructure the old loans, or if that is not possible any more, then Estonia will declare itself insolvent and simply not pay, just as Greece. The loan sharks can go f*** themselves (we will make sure not to loan from Russia). The Estonian state will be intact.

First of all, real nice deal, join eurozone and then go down with Greece for no reason.

That is the European motto - all for one, one for one

Second you have signed a treaty that compels you to make a 1.3 billion loan if needed, if you fail to do so your country is gone, does that sound like a good deal to you, really?

The country will not be gone, it will be insolvent, ie. unable to get additional loans - and that is actually good, since then politicians cannot possibly take new foreign loans any more.

[Pure ja]

That is your opinion based on wel, nothing it is also actually quit irrelevant to the discussion.

The numbers are not my opinion, those are facts.
Also, I suspect that perhaps the Latvian central bank had set a lower mandatory reserves limit. Estonian Bank required 15% of mandatory reserves from each bank. If our own banks would not have been sold, then Estonian Bank would have required even higher mandatory reserves, thus preventing both the bubble and making any bankruptcy less likely.

No we didn't, Baltics are poor so we have no capital, by capital I mean money not just banks can lend but also money people and businesses have. But please explain me all the crap about tax holes you mentioned earlier and how they work, Im dying to know Also what is the point of being a Scandinavian slave instead of Russian?

BS. Baltics are rich enough to keep up their own banking, if necessary.

As to the tax holes, I am not using those, so I would have to look it up. I won't do that at the moment. But it has been written in newspapers that at least Swedbank is using those schemes in the Baltics to move money to Sweden. So if you are dying, you have to work for it
Maybe even learn estonian language
I have already given you a tip.

No, I don't. Name a single company that was privatized by KGB in Latvia.

I won't name any companies.
The fact that you even ask that speaks a lot about you.
If it would be proven 100%, then it would have been prevented.

So they did that with thousands of people and nobody secretly leaked to media? Really?

You completely missed the point of power law distributions. Only the very top matters. And they had actually their own interests not to leak, at least not before they had got their own money out. And eventually it did leak, that is how it became public knowledge. It is not like it was a request, just a suggestion or a tip. And it was probably not asked to move money to Russia. It didn't have to be a power vertical at all, it could have worked as a network. You do know what mafia means, right?

As to what happens within Russia, it IS KNOWN that thousands have been influenced by Kremlin henchmen. In general, not specifically regarding any episode of the crisis.

Have you got any idea how many people that would involve? This sounds just as crazy as the 911 truthers...

It is you who desparately try to make it seem crazy.

Please show me with some graphs how we align with Russia otherwise its all BS.

I won't. So let it be BS for you.
You can check for yourself the curvatures before and during the 2008 crisis.
But you would likely not be convinced by curvatures either, and demand statistical models with significance tests. I won't do that either.

Im ethnic Latvian not Russian...

That does not change the possibility. Just circumstances.
Jaak Allik is estonian as well.

You make no sense.

Then it is likely useless to try any more.
If I come up with a better explanation, I will.

[Citizen]

Precisely. We have paid with borrowed money. Borrowed money is NOT real money, it is BORROWED. Future will tell whether Estonia will pay back the loan. I say that Estonia will pay the loan back only if Greece will pay back the loan they got from Estonia via ESFS and ESM.

Immediate payments to ESFS and to ESM were done using BORROWED money (a new loan), not with real money.
Loan guarantees are essentially a risk of a new future loan.

So you think its a real possibility for a country to just not pay its debt back, do you even know an example of a country that did that without some kind of a haircut deal (where the lender who holds the bonds agrees with it). Wouldn't it make sense to borrow money and invest it into education, so you have a new generation of individuals who can create succesful businesses with innovative products and high added value, that would benefit your economy, ESM, EFSF do not benefit Estonia. And don't say your education system is perfect, its nowhere near Finland or Sweden and you teachers don't get 4000 euros a month like finnish ones do.

If Greece won't pay then we will either take new loans to restructure the old loans, or if that is not possible any more, then Estonia will declare itself insolvent and simply not pay, just as Greece. The loan sharks can go f*** themselves (we will make sure not to loan from Russia). The Estonian state will be intact.

Every country has paid its debts if no deal is reached with lenders, Argentina did it too in the end. Why don't the Greece just say "fuck you!" to the German banks who hold their debt? Why not? Because it would be fucked for 100 years then. And if Estonia declared itself insolvent it would still have to pay the debt back when it gets solvent again. We became insolvent for a moment during the crisis, it cost us -25% GDP and 50 reduction of salaries, 20% unemployment and so on. Greece is insolvent now, and if Estonia becomes insolvent then its definitely becomes a failed state and has what Greece has now.

That is the European motto - all for one, one for one

I'd say to hell with them instead.

The country will not be gone, it will be insolvent, ie. unable to get additional loans - and that is actually good, since then politicians cannot possibly take new foreign loans any more.

Well you will be another Greece or Cyprus, nobody will invest in an insolvent country, in fact investors will pull out, local educated population will leave, unemployment will soar and for a 1.4 million nation its death.

I will not replay to the other post you have, its dragged too far. I can say even the local ultranationals here are not blaming Russians for the crisis. They are blaming Peoples Party and PM then Aigars Kalvītis with his 2006 stimulus when economy was already overheated and to that point they are right, but what they are offering as cure to the economy is actually poision. Wit the recent spy scandal, you can see that no secret is 100% safe, you really think that Russians are better than Americans in this? I doubt it, but even the best failed. Ruskies aren't that good...

[Pure ja]

So you think its a real possibility for a country to just not pay its debt back, do you even know an example of a country that did that without some kind of a haircut deal (where the lender who holds the bonds agrees with it).

Yes, I actually do, and I already mentioned that state - Iceland.

Wouldn't it make sense to borrow money and invest it into education, so you have a new generation of individuals who can create succesful businesses with innovative products and high added value, that would benefit your economy, ESM, EFSF do not benefit Estonia.

Sure. BUT, you can't go on forever with a budget deficit. IF you decide to run an annual budget deficit of 6% of GDP for fancy education, you better make sure that this extra 6% of deficit will annually generate an extra 6% of economic growth. If the economy isn't growing as fast, then you eventually have to cut back and as you yourself have described so many times, cutting back is very painful. So a much better approach would be to run your budget in balance, so that you won't ever have to considerably cut back your budget.

If you plan to run a budget deficit of 6%, then you also have to plan to run a budget surplus of at least 6% in the near future to pay back the loans. And you shouldn't really count on a perpetual global economic growth either.

But spending extra on extra education is not enough. For Estonia much of the problem is that our people are quite competitive outside of Estonia, so the education is sort of good enough already. It is the other areas of life that make them leave.

And don't say your education system is perfect, its nowhere near Finland or Sweden and you teachers don't get 4000 euros a month like finnish ones do.

It is not perfect, but based on international educational tests at secondary school level, only Finland is higher among the Nordics.
Our people perform generally on a good level, but their attitude sucks ("math is hard", "physics is hard", etc.) and that will eventually derail many.

Every country has paid its debts if no deal is reached with lenders, Argentina did it too in the end.

I think you should investigate more.
Greece has gone bankrupt many times before and never have they fully paid back their loans.

Why don't the Greece just say "fuck you!" to the German banks who hold their debt? Why not? Because it would be fucked for 100 years then.

But why should Greece refuse continuous flow of additional money into Greece? They will quit after the flow stops, not a moment before.

And if Estonia declared itself insolvent it would still have to pay the debt back when it gets solvent again.

Nope.

We became insolvent for a moment during the crisis, it cost us -25% GDP and 50 reduction of salaries, 20% unemployment and so on.

The unemployment level was largely unavoidable, but the duration could be shorter.

Greece is insolvent now, and if Estonia becomes insolvent then its definitely becomes a failed state and has what Greece has now.

Nope.
You again fail to realize a key difference between Greece and Estonia.
Greece became insolvent for continuously running annual budget deficits - Greece lived beyond its means.
Estonia would become insolvent for giving aid to Greece, while getting along by itself with otherwise balanced budget - there would be no need for Estonia to haircut its budget, thus no junky need for new loans, and that means no failed state.

I'd say to hell with them instead.

I'd also rather see Greece taking the hard and fast route, instead of endless pain.

Well you will be another Greece or Cyprus, nobody will invest in an insolvent country, in fact investors will pull out, local educated population will leave, unemployment will soar and for a 1.4 million nation its death.

Insolvency is only a problem if you need new foreign loans.
The state would not be insolvent to its citizens. The state would continue to operate with a balanced budget, so there is no reason for your fearmongering.

If Germany would default right now because of the accumulated debt, that wouldn't be the end of the world for Germany. They would be still good by themselves. But Greece would have a rough adjustment.

I will not replay to the other post you have, its dragged too far. I can say even the local ultranationals here are not blaming Russians for the crisis. They are blaming Peoples Party and PM then Aigars Kalvītis with his 2006 stimulus when economy was already overheated and to that point they are right, but what they are offering as cure to the economy is actually poision. Wit the recent spy scandal, you can see that no secret is 100% safe, you really think that Russians are better than Americans in this? I doubt it, but even the best failed. Ruskies aren't that good...

You are again trying to make it more consipratorial than necessary.
All I am trying to say is that the share and influence of Russian money was enough to make the difference between Estonia and Latvia. That's it.

[Citizen]

Yes, I actually do, and I already mentioned that state - Iceland.

No, that was not the case. Iceland had banks that offered deposits for UK and Netherlands citizens. When those banks went bust the gov. fund that guarantees minimum €20,000 compensation was drained by Iceland's citizens and Iceland didn't bail out UK and NL residents so their respective gov. had to do it, so they asked Iceland to compensate, which it refused and there was an international court ruling just recently that was in favor of Iceland so it was legal. Im talking about illegal refusal, its like suggesting that a normal person (not some bum that owns nothing) could try to not pay back a credit to bank, try that and see what happens

http://www.euractiv.com/enlargement/...ch-news-517411

If you plan to run a budget deficit of 6%, then you also have to plan to run a budget surplus of at least 6% in the near future to pay back the loans. And you shouldn't really count on a perpetual global economic growth either.

No you just have to grow more than 6% and that covers the previous years debt completely.

But spending extra on extra education is not enough. For Estonia much of the problem is that our people are quite competitive outside of Estonia, so the education is sort of good enough already. It is the other areas of life that make them leave.

If Estonians are as educated as Swedes and are not lazy they should earn the same in Estonia as in Sweden. Because they should be just as competative, that is not the case.

I think you should investigate more.
Greece has gone bankrupt many times before and never have they fully paid back their loans.

Im talking about modern days, with globalization and modern finance.

But why should Greece refuse continuous flow of additional money into Greece? They will quit after the flow stops, not a moment before.

Yes, it works so great for it, of 27.4% unemployment, salaries and pensions reduced every year for 6 years now, people leaving and commiting suicides, yeal great.

Nope.

Russia paid Soviet debts and Iraq paid debts during Saddam but you will not pay your debts

The unemployment level was largely unavoidable, but the duration could be shorter.

Please explain.

Nope.
You again fail to realize a key difference between Greece and Estonia.
Greece became insolvent for continuously running annual budget deficits - Greece lived beyond its means.
Estonia would become insolvent for giving aid to Greece, while getting along by itself with otherwise balanced budget - there would be no need for Estonia to haircut its budget, thus no junky need for new loans, and that means no failed state.

You do realize that when a country becomes unable to pay that means both to its citizens and debts, that happens because businesses go bankrupt, investors are pulling out, depositors are pulling out, people are leaving? When Latvia became insolvent it had the same debt as Estonia now - around 10%. During the crisis our debt rose to over 40%. We didn't had a big debt when the crisis started budget had a small deficit, if that was the only problem, we would just cut back on some luxary a bit and live on but when the country becomes insolvent it has much larger impact on whole economy.

I'd also rather see Greece taking the hard and fast route, instead of endless pain.

That would be Grexit and return to drachma and devaluation.

Insolvency is only a problem if you need new foreign loans.
The state would not be insolvent to its citizens. The state would continue to operate with a balanced budget, so there is no reason for your fearmongering.

How would you maintain a balanced budget if your economy collapses? If that was the case Greece could just balance the budget now and crisis over? Say they have a budget deficit of 5% cut expenses by 5% and thing done, right? No, because when they cut the 5% they deepen the recession, more businesses fail, more people lose jobs and pay less taxes, so next year you have the same balanced budget but the revenues are much less now so you have to cut more or run a deficit. You can imagine it like this, so you have a job and you get a cut in salary and you can no longer afford your house, you move into a smaller house next month that has is loud and you cant sleep, you cant work and next month you get another cut in your salary and are forced to move to an even worse house and so on it goes, that's a vicious circle Greece is in it and you don't need a big debt for that. Latvia had just 10% of GDP overall debt and a budget deficit of 1 digit, pretty much like you have lately in Estonia. Second thing you forget is that Estonia is not selfsuficient, most of the stuff you need you need to import, can you really survive without gasoline, natural gas, electricity, chemicals you cant produce locally, equipment you can't produce locally (pretty much all high tech stuff), medicine (don't produce all drugs in Estonia, not even close), if you refuse to pay your debts you would be kicked out of eurozone because other eurozone countries hold your debt, this is what would happen if Greece would leave eurozone, first hit would be the sick, people who have cancer, diabetes and so on, who need to use certain drugs daily. Business would basically stop because nobody would trade with you as you don't respect the law so there is no guarantee you would pay for the stuff you import. There is one state which tried to be self selfsuficient and called it Juche, it was North Korea and it resulted in mass starvation in 90's.

If Germany would default right now because of the accumulated debt, that wouldn't be the end of the world for Germany. They would be still good by themselves. But Greece would have a rough adjustment.

Why, they both have budgets with deficit and high debt?

You are again trying to make it more consipratorial than necessary.
All I am trying to say is that the share and influence of Russian money was enough to make the difference between Estonia and Latvia. That's it.

Switzerland and Luxemburg also has a lot of Russian money, do they also get influenced by Russia?

[Pure ja]

No, that was not the case. Iceland had banks that offered deposits for UK and Netherlands citizens. When those banks went bust the gov. fund that guarantees minimum €20,000 compensation was drained by Iceland's citizens and Iceland didn't bail out UK and NL residents so their respective gov. had to do it, so they asked Iceland to compensate, which it refused and there was an international court ruling just recently that was in favor of Iceland so it was legal. Im talking about illegal refusal, its like suggesting that a normal person (not some bum that owns nothing) could try to not pay back a credit to bank, try that and see what happens

http://www.euractiv.com/enlargement/...ch-news-517411

We shall certainly see. But Estonia will not be the first nor the only one to see that.
If Greece or any PIIGS fails, then most of the EU countries will become insolvent in order to bail out of the Greece loans.

As to "illegal refusal", that is all "legal", you just loose your credibility.
It happens all the time with individual persons.

You only need to pay back if you need the credibility.

No you just have to grow more than 6% and that covers the previous years debt completely.

No, you need an extra 6% on top of the usual growth / decline. And you need to sustain that extra growth annually in order to sustain the continuous annual budget deficit. If you can't sustain it, then there will be painful cutbacks.

If Estonians are as educated as Swedes and are not lazy they should earn the same in Estonia as in Sweden. Because they should be just as competative, that is not the case.

For some fields, they are. For most fields, they earn the same as soon as they leave Estonia to Sweden.

Im talking about modern days, with globalization and modern finance.

No difference.

Yes, it works so great for it, of 27.4% unemployment, salaries and pensions reduced every year for 6 years now, people leaving and commiting suicides, yeal great.

Somebody is getting more money in Greece, and that somebody is keeping Greece on its current course.
And even those ordinary people who would like to leave Eurozone do not understand that Greece's economic level would have to decline around 50%.

Russia paid Soviet debts and Iraq paid debts during Saddam but you will not pay your debts

Estonia would only pay their own debts, not the ones that were given to Greece or to PIIGS on behalf of Estonia.

And Russia didn't pay all Soviet debts, you should know. A large share of Estonian SSR money was illegally upheld in Moscow. Likely a lot of Latvian SSR's money as well. Not to speak of the soviet occupation costs. Not to speak of the liabilites that Soviet Russia took during the Peace Treaty of Tartu in 1920.

Please explain.

Fast restructuring inevitably brings about temporary unemployment.
The key here is "temporary".

You do realize that when a country becomes unable to pay that means both to its citizens and debts, that happens because businesses go bankrupt, investors are pulling out, depositors are pulling out, people are leaving?

You have it wrong, again.
Estonia would not become unable to pay for its citizens or its foreign partners, since Estonia's internal budget would be in balance.
Estonia would only refuse to pay loans related to Greece and PIIGS.

No Estonian businesses need to go bankrupt, no investors pulling out, no people leaving. Why? Because then the countries in trouble would be those without internal budget balance. And those countries with a balanced budget would have an advantage. That is a simplification, of course.

When Latvia became insolvent it had the same debt as Estonia now - around 10%. During the crisis our debt rose to over 40%. We didn't had a big debt when the crisis started budget had a small deficit, if that was the only problem, we would just cut back on some luxary a bit and live on but when the country becomes insolvent it has much larger impact on whole economy.

You have it wrong again. Estonia at the start of the crisis had reserves that completely covered its foreign debt. Completely. That is not the case any more, but back then Estonia had reserves that gave more manouverability - something that Latvia lacked. And Latvia had a larger bubble and was behind the economic cycle, so when the crisis eventually hit full force, it was harder for Latvia.

That would be Grexit and return to drachma and devaluation.

Yes.

How would you maintain a balanced budget if your economy collapses?

As we have done before. In 1990-91, in 2008. Just like that.

If that was the case Greece could just balance the budget now and crisis over?

Yes. More or less.
They would also have to continue to have a balanced budget and that is a feat that I am afraid that Greece hasn't mastered since the start of the Troyan War.

Say they have a budget deficit of 5% cut expenses by 5% and thing done, right? No, because when they cut the 5% they deepen the recession, more businesses fail, more people lose jobs and pay less taxes, so next year you have the same balanced budget but the revenues are much less now so you have to cut more or run a deficit.

That is the Achilles and the turtle example. Do you really believe that you can get me with that line? Really???
Do you really think that the turtle is faster than Achilles and that Achilles will never surpass the turtle?

And that comes from a latvian who should know what an adjustment looks like, as it was in 1990-92.
Greece will have to go through that either in 1-2 years, or in 10-20 years. Or continue to suffer.

Second thing you forget is that Estonia is not selfsuficient, most of the stuff you need you need to import, can you really survive without gasoline, natural gas, electricity, chemicals you cant produce locally, equipment you can't produce locally (pretty much all high tech stuff), medicine (don't produce all drugs in Estonia, not even close), if you refuse to pay your debts you would be kicked out of eurozone because other eurozone countries hold your debt, this is what would happen if Greece would leave eurozone, first hit would be the sick, people who have cancer, diabetes and so on, who need to use certain drugs daily. Business would basically stop because nobody would trade with you as you don't respect the law so there is no guarantee you would pay for the stuff you import. There is one state which tried to be self selfsuficient and called it Juche, it was North Korea and it resulted in mass starvation in 90's.

All that will not be a problem for Estonia with an internally balanced budget, since we already almost have it.
It will be painful for Greece, but any adjustment is hard. It is either eternal horror or a horrible end.

Would you have chosen the Belarus or the Russian route out of the 1990s crisis, instead of the Baltic route?

Why, they both have budgets with deficit and high debt?

If you can't even discern any difference between Germany and Greece, then why bother?

Switzerland and Luxemburg also has a lot of Russian money, do they also get influenced by Russia?

Switzerland actually has something resembling a democracy, so they are not as influenced as others.
AND, influence comes from a share of money, not from absolute sum of money. I doubt that Russia's position in those two countries is as large as it is in Latvia.