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| Received: 52,620/1,011 Given: 43,526/788 |
Here are more realistic models for Serbs/Slovenians with modern proxies (and yes, I won't artifically reduce the fit by overfitting)
Target: Serb
Distance: 2.6352% / 2.63517890
51.4 Belarusian_Minsk
48.6 Italian_Abruzzo
Target: Slovenian
Distance: 2.6332% / 2.63320865
56.8 Belarusian_Minsk
43.2 Italian_Veneto
Target: Montenegrin
Distance: 1.9240% / 1.92395683
42.3 Belarusian_Minsk
32.5 Italian_Marche
25.2 Italian_Molise


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Illyrians (in Croatia at least) were north Italian like, Thracians (in Bulgaria) more central-south Italian like. Than they got woggified by East Med input in Roman times. But it could not pull them that much south.
Btw, ethnogenesis of Serbs according to them happened in Illyrian territory which is on level of central Italy, so modeling their pre-Slavic part with something very southern only to increase Slavic percentage is incorrect.
New paper on Balkan DNA modeled Serbs and southern Croats as just simply Slavic + Iron Age Balkan, and said Roman genetics did not leave much impact.
Croat samples from Dalmatia were little over half Slavic, Serb samples from Belgrade were little below half Slavic.


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with ancient samples on G25, where I only used pure examples (heavily northeastern individual Krakauer Berg + AV2 for Slavs etc)
No need to model with Romans at all just like upcoming paper states. These are more realistic percentages (keep in mind those are academic averages from capital cities, so mish mash of lot of stuff
-Slovene average includes some other south slav admixed people, Belgrade average includes people with roots from Montenegro etc)
Target: Slovenian
Distance: 0.6909% / 0.00690864
59.6 (Balto-)Slavic
35.8 Balkan
4.6 Celto-Germanic
Target: Serbian
Distance: 1.2317% / 0.01231690
50.8 Balkan
49.2 (Balto-)Slavic
Target: Montenegrin
Distance: 1.1779% / 0.01177904
53.0 Balkan
47.0 (Balto-)Slavic


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If talking only about entire ethnicities, then Macedonians.
If also including the regional level, then the far northern Russians. For example, Pskov Russians are identical to Latvians, and Archangelsk Russians are like Finns with a bit more Siberian shift.
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