Who, genetically, are the least Slavic of the Slavs?

[vbnetkhio]

--

[vbnetkhio]

Distance to:	Balkan_LateRoman
3.98361645	Italian_Basilicata
4.12654819	Italian_Abruzzo
4.12710552	Italian_Molise
4.17538022	Italian_Apulia
4.29025640	Italian_Sicily

This seems correct, the simplest model I could do to model the pre-Slavic ancestry of Serbs.

Target: Serbian (27.32% Baltic)
Distance: 0.9723% / 0.97229454 | R2P
52.2 Polish_WarmiaMasuria (44.26% Baltic)
47.8 Italian_Abruzzo (8.67% Baltic)

I based it on the PCA from the Danube Limes study:

[JosephK]

Czech bastards.

[vbnetkhio]

They are probably not. But BA samples from east Slavonia and Dalmatian hinterland were homogenous, and that tells something.
More samples are needed. Maybe southern Illyrians in MNE/ALB were more Thracian like, or maybe they weren't. None knows. But they couldn't have been like Greek Islanders.



Yes. And northern Illyrians had large contacts and influences from Celts and Veneti. Some even say Liburnians weren't even Illyrians but Venetic tribes.
Very little is known about them.

What I think tho, is that these models heavily exegerate Roman genetic influence.

We will see when paper comes out. I heard they have Serbian (Moesian) IA samples, Croatian (Illyrian) and Slovenian (Illyrian-Keltic) IA as well.

Slovenia IA is already available in G25:

Slovenia_EIA:I5689,0.132035,0.142174,0.050911,0.018411,0.046162,0.007809,0.00329,0.005077,0.00634,0.006925,0.001786,0.001649,-0.00892,-0.002752,0.002172,0.004641,-0.002868,0.00038,-0.000754,0.003126,0.00025,0.002102,-0.000616,-0.008796,-0.000958
Slovenia_EIA:I5690,0.127482,0.135065,0.058454,0.026809,0.044624,0.006414,0.007285,0.013846,0.001432,0.006378,0.002436,0.006744,-0.01219,-0.009221,0.007057,0.004906,-0.003651,0.003167,0.001634,-0.000375,-0.002995,0.006059,0.000123,0.007832,-0.003712
Slovenia_EIA:I5691,0.129758,0.146236,0.043369,0.006783,0.044008,-0.000837,-0.002585,-0.000231,0.012885,0.028429,0.002761,0.008243,-0.016501,-0.011423,0.002443,-0.001989,0.004433,0.00228,-0.002137,0.002001,0.000374,0.006925,-0.000616,0.001687,0.000239
Slovenia_EIA:I5692,0.125205,0.15436,0.033187,0,0.035083,-0.008646,-0.00188,0.001385,0.014521,0.030798,-0.004547,0.005245,-0.018583,-0.008808,-0.005972,-0.00305,0.002086,0.000887,0.00352,-0.007003,-0.001996,0.000989,-0.001602,-0.004699,-0.00479
Slovenia_EIA:I5693,0.129758,0.151314,0.049403,-0.000969,0.047393,-0.001673,0.002115,-0.001615,0.009408,0.033714,-0.00341,0.002997,-0.020069,0.001789,-0.000136,-0.00305,-0.014342,0.005321,0.004777,-0.00075,0.00549,0.01694,-0.002218,-0.002169,0.003473
Slovenia_EIA:I5696,0.12862,0.147252,0.039975,-0.008721,0.049855,-0.018686,-0.001175,-0.003,0.024134,0.041914,0.001786,0.014387,-0.026164,-0.011147,-0.0038,0.009944,0.007953,0.000253,0.007919,-0.008879,-0.000374,0.003339,-0.011339,-0.008073,0.003712
Slovenia_EIA:I5697,0.126344,0.139128,0.047517,0.025194,0.041546,0.004741,0.00094,0.002538,0.001432,0.010205,-0.003897,0.007194,-0.014866,-0.012799,0.006786,0.012066,0.014342,-0.003547,0.002765,-0.005002,0.003868,0.002226,0.00419,-0.003253,-0.008023
Slovenia_EIA:I5698,0.12862,0.147252,0.052797,0.005814,0.051086,-0.006136,-0.000705,0.004846,0.020248,0.027153,0.00341,0.002847,-0.004162,-0.016102,-0.004343,0.011668,0.021774,-0.00076,0.011187,0.003502,0.000499,0.007048,-0.001109,-0.010363,-0.002275

[Dušan]

I took Imperial Roman average that vbnetkhio provided, Iron Age Bulgaria and Croatia, and several ancient Slavic samples.

Imperial_Roman,12.79,3.50,21.15,18.80,34.25,6.65,0 .68,0.41,0.09,0.23,0.48,0.77,0.20
I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp,24.62,3.48 ,30.00,9.21,28.33,4.36,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0. 00,0.00
I3313_Croatia_Early_IA_2733_ybp,34.15 ,12.62,23.19,10.39,15.71,3.56,0.00,0.00,0.38,0.00, 0.00,0.00,0.00

Slavic:Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2a_I2a_,25. 54,45.76,13.11,4.08,6.15,0.53,0.00,0.00,2.60,1.08, 0.58,0.53,0.00
Slavic:AV2_Hungary_Szolad_540_640_AD_540_640_AD_,3 0.33,47.37,11.04,4.58,2.63,0.68,0.49,0.00,1.56,0.8 9,0.00,0.42,0.00
Slavic:Viking_Denmark_Langeland_VK287,27.47,45.26, 8.62,7.09,7.54,0,1.5,0.79,1.13,0.21,0.21,0.16,0
Slavic:Viking_Poland_Cedynia_VK212,29.69,48.84,9.5 3,5.54,1.59,0,1.3,0,1.34,0,0.13,1.42,0.62
Slavic:Viking_Russia_Pskov_VK159,28.62,50.38,7.63, 3.49,4.19,0,2.08,0,0,1.86,0.48,1.27,0
Slavic:Viking_Sweden_Gotland_VK454,25.59,45.53,14. 97,2.7,4.74,0.3,0.73,2.49,0,0.34,1.21,1.4,0
Slavic:Viking_Russia_Gnezdovo_VK272,27.1,42.86,8.3 7,4.01,8.44,3.37,1.6,0,1.68,2.01,0,0,0.56
Slavic:Viking_Denmark_Jutland_VK340,28.29,43.29,9. 89,5.02,8.09,0,3.75,0,0.44,0.1,0,1.12,0
Slavic:KRA011_S-Anhalt_1100_AD,29.56,50.68,8.38,2.39,2.54,1.03,1.3 ,0.14,0,1.4,1.27,1.1,0.21
Slavic:KRA001_S-Anhalt_1100_AD,25.47,47.56,12.36,7.54,1.32,0,2.43, 0.52,0.01,1.2,0.71,0.61,0.27
Slavic:VK494_Poland_Sandomierz,32.56,47.37,12.86,2 .56,0,0,0.82,2.53,0.31,0.22,0,0.77,0

This is Serbian average

 Serb,24.72,29.47,17.13,9.20,15.42,1.55,0.55,0.27,0.72,0.53,0.30,0.08,0.05

Target: Serb
Distance: 0.8704% / 0.87035441
60.7 Slavic
26.8 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
11.5 Imperial_Roman
1.0 I3313_Croatia_Early_IA_2733_ybp



Me

Target: Dušan
Distance: 2.5924% / 2.59241188
69.4 Slavic
15.5 Imperial_Roman
15.1 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp




I do not get any trace of Croatia Iron Age, and Serb average got only 1%.

[Dušan]

You too didnt get Croatia Iron Age

Target: vbn
Distance: 2.9217% / 2.92167846
65.6 Slavic
21.5 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
12.9 Imperial_Roman

[Jana]

Slovenia IA is already available in G25:

Slovenia_EIA:I5689,0.132035,0.142174,0.050911,0.018411,0.046162,0.007809,0.00329,0.005077,0.00634,0.006925,0.001786,0.001649,-0.00892,-0.002752,0.002172,0.004641,-0.002868,0.00038,-0.000754,0.003126,0.00025,0.002102,-0.000616,-0.008796,-0.000958
Slovenia_EIA:I5690,0.127482,0.135065,0.058454,0.026809,0.044624,0.006414,0.007285,0.013846,0.001432,0.006378,0.002436,0.006744,-0.01219,-0.009221,0.007057,0.004906,-0.003651,0.003167,0.001634,-0.000375,-0.002995,0.006059,0.000123,0.007832,-0.003712
Slovenia_EIA:I5691,0.129758,0.146236,0.043369,0.006783,0.044008,-0.000837,-0.002585,-0.000231,0.012885,0.028429,0.002761,0.008243,-0.016501,-0.011423,0.002443,-0.001989,0.004433,0.00228,-0.002137,0.002001,0.000374,0.006925,-0.000616,0.001687,0.000239
Slovenia_EIA:I5692,0.125205,0.15436,0.033187,0,0.035083,-0.008646,-0.00188,0.001385,0.014521,0.030798,-0.004547,0.005245,-0.018583,-0.008808,-0.005972,-0.00305,0.002086,0.000887,0.00352,-0.007003,-0.001996,0.000989,-0.001602,-0.004699,-0.00479
Slovenia_EIA:I5693,0.129758,0.151314,0.049403,-0.000969,0.047393,-0.001673,0.002115,-0.001615,0.009408,0.033714,-0.00341,0.002997,-0.020069,0.001789,-0.000136,-0.00305,-0.014342,0.005321,0.004777,-0.00075,0.00549,0.01694,-0.002218,-0.002169,0.003473
Slovenia_EIA:I5696,0.12862,0.147252,0.039975,-0.008721,0.049855,-0.018686,-0.001175,-0.003,0.024134,0.041914,0.001786,0.014387,-0.026164,-0.011147,-0.0038,0.009944,0.007953,0.000253,0.007919,-0.008879,-0.000374,0.003339,-0.011339,-0.008073,0.003712
Slovenia_EIA:I5697,0.126344,0.139128,0.047517,0.025194,0.041546,0.004741,0.00094,0.002538,0.001432,0.010205,-0.003897,0.007194,-0.014866,-0.012799,0.006786,0.012066,0.014342,-0.003547,0.002765,-0.005002,0.003868,0.002226,0.00419,-0.003253,-0.008023
Slovenia_EIA:I5698,0.12862,0.147252,0.052797,0.005814,0.051086,-0.006136,-0.000705,0.004846,0.020248,0.027153,0.00341,0.002847,-0.004162,-0.016102,-0.004343,0.011668,0.021774,-0.00076,0.011187,0.003502,0.000499,0.007048,-0.001109,-0.010363,-0.002275

Distance to: Slovenia_EIA:I5698

0.03620033 Spanish_Catalunya_Central
0.03712043 Spanish_La_Rioja
0.03751409 Spanish_Camp_de_Tarragona
0.03781650 Spanish_Girona
0.03816913 Spanish_Castello
0.03825951 Spanish_Soria
0.03887258 Spanish_Peri-Barcelona
0.03901771 Swiss_French
0.03910108 French_Auvergne
0.03928640 Spanish_Penedes
0.03990152 Spanish_Lleida
0.04014872 Spanish_Baleares
0.04082932 Italian_Aosta_Valley
0.04093109 Spanish_Pirineu
0.04120532 Spanish_Mallorca
0.04244801 Spanish_Cataluna
0.04281684 Spanish_Barcelones
0.04302469 French_Occitanie
0.04375045 French_Provence
0.04401022 Italian_Trentino-Alto-Adige
0.04403877 Spanish_Valencia
0.04411215 Spanish_Terres_de_l'Ebre
0.04467171 Spanish_Cantabria
0.04475480 French_South
0.04536694 Spanish_Menorca

Distance to: Slovenia_EIA:I5697

0.02833961 Swiss_French
0.02840135 Swiss_German
0.02998099 French_Pas-de-Calais
0.03006671 French_Alsace
0.03013543 French_Nord
0.03080317 French_Paris
0.03088586 Belgian
0.03264885 French_Auvergne
0.03323105 French_Occitanie
0.03455815 Italian_Aosta_Valley
0.03487486 French_Seine-Maritime
0.03519744 French_Provence
0.03630435 Austrian
0.03778455 German
0.03943445 French_Brittany
0.04013198 Afrikaner
0.04054248 Spanish_Penedes
0.04066832 Italian_Northeast
0.04132484 Spanish_Girona
0.04251770 Spanish_Catalunya_Central
0.04327343 Spanish_Mallorca
0.04351814 Spanish_Camp_de_Tarragona
0.04352584 Welsh
0.04376197 Montenegrin
0.04397301 Spanish_Soria

Distance to: Slovenia_EIA:I5696

0.03234288 Spanish_La_Rioja
0.03538392 Spanish_Castello
0.03740585 Spanish_Cantabria
0.03766556 Spanish_Pirineu
0.03821191 Spanish_Terres_de_l'Ebre
0.03851309 Spanish_Lleida
0.03857278 Spanish_Baleares
0.03883943 Spanish_Catalunya_Central
0.03890931 Spanish_Peri-Barcelona
0.03924372 Spanish_Castilla_La_Mancha
0.03986602 Spanish_Valencia
0.04011423 Spanish_Alacant
0.04022496 Spanish_Girona
0.04025876 Spanish_Menorca
0.04050127 Spanish_Mallorca
0.04051845 Spanish_Camp_de_Tarragona
0.04081729 Spanish_Navarra
0.04087657 Spanish_Aragon
0.04116086 Spanish_Eivissa
0.04128794 Spanish_Cataluna
0.04144940 Spanish_Penedes
0.04156245 French_Corsica
0.04182449 Italian_Bergamo
0.04207991 Spanish_Murcia
0.04220601 French_South

Distance to: Slovenia_EIA:I5693

0.03188540 Spanish_Barcelones
0.03230291 Spanish_Terres_de_l'Ebre
0.03357251 Italian_Trentino-Alto-Adige
0.03376342 Spanish_Catalunya_Central
0.03463421 French_Auvergne
0.03469857 Spanish_Peri-Barcelona
0.03492877 Spanish_Lleida
0.03555980 Spanish_Mallorca
0.03563694 Spanish_Camp_de_Tarragona
0.03583428 Spanish_Menorca
0.03602994 French_Occitanie
0.03680081 Spanish_Castilla_La_Mancha
0.03704783 Spanish_Eivissa
0.03713198 Spanish_Valencia
0.03737874 Spanish_Pirineu
0.03741414 Spanish_Aragon
0.03744834 Spanish_Penedes
0.03799166 Italian_Bergamo
0.03811738 Spanish_Baleares
0.03829694 Spanish_Girona
0.03836378 Spanish_Cantabria
0.03837645 Italian_Lombardy
0.03840294 French_South
0.03844732 Spanish_Castello
0.03878653 Italian_Veneto

Distance to: Slovenia_EIA:I5692

0.01884852 Italian_Trentino-Alto-Adige
0.02032235 Italian_Bergamo
0.02074098 Italian_Veneto
0.02269970 Spanish_Baleares
0.02307947 Spanish_Mallorca
0.02442493 Spanish_Menorca
0.02458126 Italian_Lombardy
0.02594380 Spanish_Terres_de_l'Ebre
0.02658628 Spanish_Eivissa
0.02681418 Spanish_Peri-Barcelona
0.02693113 Spanish_Girona
0.02768907 Spanish_Penedes
0.02861246 Spanish_Catalunya_Central
0.02862688 Italian_Piedmont
0.02868125 Spanish_Lleida
0.02886524 Spanish_Camp_de_Tarragona
0.02917939 French_Provence
0.02920826 Italian_Aosta_Valley
0.02953563 Spanish_Castilla_La_Mancha
0.02959726 French_Corsica
0.02961253 Italian_Northeast
0.02981728 Spanish_Pirineu
0.03015110 Spanish_Alacant
0.03073624 Spanish_Castello
0.03086872 Spanish_Barcelones

Distance to: Slovenia_EIA:I5691

0.01772366 Spanish_Penedes
0.01780894 French_Auvergne
0.01865424 Spanish_Catalunya_Central
0.01870648 Swiss_French
0.01902269 Spanish_Peri-Barcelona
0.01937575 Spanish_Camp_de_Tarragona
0.01970217 Spanish_Girona
0.02025144 Spanish_Lleida
0.02033068 Spanish_Mallorca
0.02108185 Italian_Aosta_Valley
0.02141721 French_Provence
0.02209646 French_Occitanie
0.02331665 Spanish_Terres_de_l'Ebre
0.02348462 Spanish_Pirineu
0.02348778 Spanish_Baleares
0.02407408 Italian_Trentino-Alto-Adige
0.02413374 Spanish_Castello
0.02490645 Spanish_Barcelones
0.02595530 Spanish_Cantabria
0.02638997 Spanish_Aragon
0.02648827 Spanish_Valencia
0.02672735 Spanish_Cataluna
0.02676597 Spanish_Eivissa
0.02762874 Spanish_Menorca
0.02770778 Italian_Veneto

Distance to: Slovenia_EIA:I5690

0.02135795 French_Alsace
0.02185423 French_Nord
0.02224166 Belgian
0.02292636 Swiss_German
0.02456111 German
0.02599531 French_Paris
0.02797027 Austrian
0.02822305 Afrikaner
0.02828635 French_Brittany
0.02846568 French_Pas-de-Calais
0.02970049 Welsh
0.03044665 French_Seine-Maritime
0.03120623 Dutch
0.03130009 English_Cornwall
0.03164843 English
0.03284064 French_Occitanie
0.03443270 French_Auvergne
0.03453790 Scottish
0.03641945 Orcadian
0.03680063 Hungarian
0.03713867 Swiss_French
0.03773100 Danish
0.03795500 Shetlandic
0.03933315 Irish
0.04043052 French_Provence

Distance to: Slovenia_EIA:I5689

0.02229676 French_Alsace
0.02471939 Swiss_German
0.02499476 French_Nord
0.02778487 French_Auvergne
0.02795823 French_Occitanie
0.02827933 Austrian
0.02920741 French_Pas-de-Calais
0.02972861 Belgian
0.02993030 French_Seine-Maritime
0.02996418 Swiss_French
0.03194496 French_Paris
0.03223456 German
0.03452591 Italian_Northeast
0.03466911 French_Provence
0.03671695 Croatian
0.03673354 Italian_Aosta_Valley
0.03687480 Montenegrin
0.03771890 Hungarian
0.03837524 Spanish_Camp_de_Tarragona
0.03839178 Spanish_Catalunya_Central
0.03850238 Slovenian
0.03854034 Serbian
0.03862743 Spanish_Barcelones
0.03863748 Spanish_Penedes
0.03875259 French_Brittany

[Jana]

Some of these Slovenian samples look "Illyrian" while those clustering with north French look Celtic IMHO. Some come from Croatian border area as far as I know.
Would be interesting to properly identify material culture each sample is identified with, so we could more easily distinguish Illyrians from Celts (and maybe some are a mix of them?)

[Jana]

I took Imperial Roman average that vbnetkhio provided, Iron Age Bulgaria and Croatia, and several ancient Slavic samples.

Imperial_Roman,12.79,3.50,21.15,18.80,34.25,6.65,0 .68,0.41,0.09,0.23,0.48,0.77,0.20
I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp,24.62,3.48 ,30.00,9.21,28.33,4.36,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0. 00,0.00
I3313_Croatia_Early_IA_2733_ybp,34.15 ,12.62,23.19,10.39,15.71,3.56,0.00,0.00,0.38,0.00, 0.00,0.00,0.00

Slavic:Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2a_I2a_,25. 54,45.76,13.11,4.08,6.15,0.53,0.00,0.00,2.60,1.08, 0.58,0.53,0.00
Slavic:AV2_Hungary_Szolad_540_640_AD_540_640_AD_,3 0.33,47.37,11.04,4.58,2.63,0.68,0.49,0.00,1.56,0.8 9,0.00,0.42,0.00
Slavic:Viking_Denmark_Langeland_VK287,27.47,45.26, 8.62,7.09,7.54,0,1.5,0.79,1.13,0.21,0.21,0.16,0
Slavic:Viking_Poland_Cedynia_VK212,29.69,48.84,9.5 3,5.54,1.59,0,1.3,0,1.34,0,0.13,1.42,0.62
Slavic:Viking_Russia_Pskov_VK159,28.62,50.38,7.63, 3.49,4.19,0,2.08,0,0,1.86,0.48,1.27,0
Slavic:Viking_Sweden_Gotland_VK454,25.59,45.53,14. 97,2.7,4.74,0.3,0.73,2.49,0,0.34,1.21,1.4,0
Slavic:Viking_Russia_Gnezdovo_VK272,27.1,42.86,8.3 7,4.01,8.44,3.37,1.6,0,1.68,2.01,0,0,0.56
Slavic:Viking_Denmark_Jutland_VK340,28.29,43.29,9. 89,5.02,8.09,0,3.75,0,0.44,0.1,0,1.12,0
Slavic:KRA011_S-Anhalt_1100_AD,29.56,50.68,8.38,2.39,2.54,1.03,1.3 ,0.14,0,1.4,1.27,1.1,0.21
Slavic:KRA001_S-Anhalt_1100_AD,25.47,47.56,12.36,7.54,1.32,0,2.43, 0.52,0.01,1.2,0.71,0.61,0.27
Slavic:VK494_Poland_Sandomierz,32.56,47.37,12.86,2 .56,0,0,0.82,2.53,0.31,0.22,0,0.77,0

This is Serbian average

 Serb,24.72,29.47,17.13,9.20,15.42,1.55,0.55,0.27,0.72,0.53,0.30,0.08,0.05

Target: Serb
Distance: 0.8704% / 0.87035441
60.7 Slavic
26.8 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
11.5 Imperial_Roman
1.0 I3313_Croatia_Early_IA_2733_ybp



Me

Target: Dušan
Distance: 2.5924% / 2.59241188
69.4 Slavic
15.5 Imperial_Roman
15.1 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp




I do not get any trace of Croatia Iron Age, and Serb average got only 1%.

Thracian sample already plot with more southern shifted central Italians, and Imperial Romans plot like borderline MENAs. Such a score like from your model would make Serb pre-Slavic part supper woggy deep south Italian like.
Not realistic at all especially considering prečani originate from Illyrian regions.

Neither should one get fit below 1 for ancient model, that's not realistic at all.

[Jana]

This seems correct, the simplest model I could do to model the pre-Slavic ancestry of Serbs.

Target: Serbian (27.32% Baltic)
Distance: 0.9723% / 0.97229454 | R2P
52.2 Polish_WarmiaMasuria (44.26% Baltic)
47.8 Italian_Abruzzo (8.67% Baltic)

Yeah this looks much more realistic.