BTW, even if the Teutonic Order stayed in Burzenland, the Livonian Crusade would have still taken place, because it started earlier:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livonian_Crusade
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livoni...s_of_the_Sword
Thus probably a large amount of Germans who went to Prussia OTL, would have went to Livonia (Estonia and Latvia) in this ATL.
OTL = our (real) history timeline
ATL = alternate history timeline
What you can expect in this ATL is a Germanization of Estonians and Latvians (which happened to Old Prussians in our timeline).
Thousands of German settlers who in OTL went to Prussia and Pomerelia, would in ATL go mainly to Latvia and Estonia (Livonia).
Old Prussians, Kleinlitauen & Masuria had a much higher population density than wilderness areas near the Black Sea at that time.
These areas were controlled mainly by the Cumans in the early 1200s (see the map below), I don't think Germans would assimilate them - other Europeans, such as Russians and Ukrainians, also did not assimilate nomadic populations (Tatars etc.) after they conquered the Pontic Steppe, AFAIK.
As for the Prussian Crusade:
Between 1/3 and 1/2 of Old Prussians perished or fled/were expelled during the crusade (years 1218-1283).
In the Black Sea crusade we can assume that losses of the Cumans & other locals would have been higher.
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