Migration Period G25 calculator - beta version

[Rafael Passoni]

Target: me_scaled
Distance: 2.0326% / 0.02032608
46.4	Greece
13.4	Italia_North
12.8	Gallia_Armorica
9.2	Balto_Slavs
8.4	Sardinia
4.0	Romano_Britons
3.0	Vandals
2.4	Thracians_Getae
0.4	Noricum

Distance to:	me_scaled
0.03376117	Illyrians_West_Dalmatia
0.03679927	Illyrians_East_Dalmatia
0.03699779	Italia_North
0.03867093	Free_Dacians
0.04467451	Thracians_Getae
0.04935422	Romano_Britons
0.05096622	Noricum
0.05211297	Raetia
0.05219037	Roman_Italia
0.06447911	Hispania_south
0.06550231	Greece
0.06851272	Gallia_Narbonensis
0.07443966	Aquitania
0.08071354	Hispania_north
0.08588292	Gallia_Belgica
0.08679470	Gallia_Celtica
0.08912507	Bosporus_Greeks
0.09447905	Gallia_Armorica
0.10270506	Cappadocia_Greeks
0.10535296	Saxons
0.10655339	Angles_Jutes
0.10846653	Britannia
0.10872095	Hibernia
0.11002081	Germania_Magna
0.11344369	Caledonia

[R1b-L51]

Improves the fit by 0.2

Target: UpsilanderScaled
Distance: 1.7773% / 0.01777323 | R5P
31.2 Gallia_Armorica
22.6 Aquitania
18.6 Balto_Slavs
17.9 Goths_Gepids
9.7 Illyrians_West_Dalmatia


My closest match from Flashball's collection of results is a northern French from Picardy with a bit of Belgian:


Target: French:KatPère(85%Picardie+10%Flemish+5%Anjou)
Distance: 0.7401% / 0.00740145 | R5P
30.2 Frisians
26.0 Gallia_Belgica
17.2 Balto_Slavs
14.8 Greece
11.8 Vandals


Here is a another one from the extreme south:

Target: French:SouthEasternFrance(94%04BassesAlpes6%Gard)
Distance: 0.4675% / 0.00467524 | R5P
36.0 Aquitania
25.6 Italia_North
20.2 Goths_Gepids
11.6 Balto_Slavs
6.6 Greece


It is factually wrong to say people who score significant Balto Slavs must have recent eastern Euro. These people have none and they have much better distance than me on this calculator (not sim). I should probably even score a little more due to my 25% German + 25% Belgian but G25 is not anywhere close to be that precise or reliable from one admix dataset to another. I am no more Breton and Aquitanian than anything else, nor these people are part Frisian or Greeks (i was getting Frisian and Thracian too before adding Armorica). Admixes can get very random unless we are talking about specific non Euro ancestry. Single distances are more important, always.


This is my best matches on Flashball collection (better single distances):

Target: UpsilanderScaled
Distance: 1.6253% / 0.01625273
43.4 IronAgeFrance
27.0 Gaul(Bohemia)
15.2 Frisian_Germany
13.0 WesternBretagneFinistère
1.4 GaulishHungaryPannonian_Basin)


Distance to: UpsilanderScaled
0.02322357 German
0.02378962 French:KatPère(85%Picardie+10%Flemish+5%Anjou)
0.02432957 Dutch_Zeeland
0.02445950 German_North_Rhine-Westphalia
0.02520916 Dutch_Central+South

I have also thought the same as you, that unique distances are more important and even then they are unrealistic (for example, if you mix a Mediterranean with a Dinarid and an Alpine enough, the program will probably classify you as northern Italy, even if you don't actually come from that region).
The G25 conjectures are so crazy that after adding the Alans, I am now much more Thracian and Illyrian than before...
I think that this tool should be greatly improved, or at least add ALL THE MIGRATION GROUPS OF HUMANITY, to increase the database with which to compare the samples. Although it is true, I find the work commendable.

[Upsilander]

I have also thought the same as you, that unique distances are more important and even then they are unrealistic (for example, if you mix a Mediterranean with a Dinarid and an Alpine enough, the program will probably classify you as northern Italy, even if you don't actually come from that region).
The G25 conjectures are so crazy that after adding the Alans, I am now much more Thracian and Illyrian than before...
I think that this tool should be greatly improved, or at least add ALL THE MIGRATION GROUPS OF HUMANITY, to increase the database with which to compare the samples. Although it is true, I find the work commendable.

This is all derived from nMonte, an algo designed for Casinos, hence the name "n Monte-Carlo". You can't conclude too much based on it, just a general pattern. People who try to read too much into it clearly have no business tampering with calculators. False premises lead to false conclusions. The most reliable conclusion is the single pop distances. Even then a particular dataset can skew perceptions if you are closer to a specific region that isn't sampled, thus showing your best match in another country.

As you have just witnessed yourself, adding ONE SINGLE sample you can change the populations that show up in the admix, since the algo might have to rebalance everything even using completely different populations just to get the absolute best fit he can trading more often than not distance for realism (that's the main culprit of the algo). Contrary to what people think, a great distance is rarely a good sign. Similar thing happens when using ADC, population mixes can change entirely.

[R1b-L51]

Completely agree with you.
Or as they say, the dream of reasoning produces monsters.
Sometimes it is necessary to use common sense, an AI will never be able to discern the particularities of each sample... that is why there are still some Basques who believe they are Georgians... although all Europeans are Georgians to a certain extent, that does not make us unfailingly Georgian.

[gixajo]

Target: gixajo_scaled
Distance: 1.5462% / 0.01546195 | ADC: 0.25x RC
37.6 Aquitania
18.6 Hispania_south
14.8 Gallia_Narbonensis
11.8 Gallia_Celtica
8.8 Gallia_Armorica
5.8 Noricum
2.6 Arabian_Peninsula_Peoples

Target: gixajo_scaled
Distance: 1.5339% / 0.01533926 | R5P
49.0 Aquitania
19.6 Gallia_Celtica
14.2 Gallia_Armorica
12.8 Greece
4.4 Maghreb


Distance to: gixajo_scaled
0.02890760 Gallia_Narbonensis
0.03184198 Noricum
0.03311629 Raetia
0.03360985 Aquitania
0.03802556 Italia_North
0.03978436 Hispania_north
0.04637337 Gallia_Belgica
0.04854099 Romano_Britons
0.04859695 Illyrians_West_Dalmatia
0.04907134 Gallia_Celtica
0.06385614 Gallia_Armorica
0.06521916 Free_Dacians
0.07039434 Hispania_south
0.07432320 Saxons
0.07530548 Britannia
0.07535631 Hibernia
0.07612883 Germania_Magna
0.07650141 Angles_Jutes
0.07674809 Illyrians_East_Dalmatia
0.07917519 Caledonia
0.08549088 Langobards
0.08604683 Thracians_Getae
0.08756034 Frisians
0.08851472 Roman_Italia
0.09153684 Goths_Gepids

[Mopi The Dire Wolf]

Target: OldMopiCat_scaled
Distance: 0.8262% / 0.00826166
30.2 Gallia_Narbonensis
26.2 Britannia
12.6 Hibernia
11.2 Greece
10.6 Illyrians_West_Dalmatia
3.0 Gallia_Armorica
2.4 Aquitania
1.0 Central_African_Foragers_Biaka
1.0 Maghreb
0.8 North_Uralic_Peoples
0.4 North_Kipchak_Turks
0.4 South_Siberian_Turks
0.2 Sardinia


Distance to: OldMopiCat_scaled
0.03032705 Gallia_Narbonensis
0.03131087 Gallia_Belgica
0.03267294 Gallia_Celtica
0.03364188 Noricum
0.03908687 Italia_North
0.04395527 Gallia_Armorica
0.04503021 Raetia
0.04626678 Romano_Britons
0.04817294 Illyrians_West_Dalmatia
0.04894579 Saxons
0.04969400 Hibernia
0.05023877 Britannia
0.05228827 Aquitania
0.05264690 Angles_Jutes
0.05343439 Germania_Magna
0.05500325 Caledonia
0.05600455 Hispania_north
0.06170241 Langobards
0.06456550 Free_Dacians
0.06676319 Frisians
0.06857645 Warini
0.07032706 Goths_Gepids
0.07098650 Nordic_Scandinavians
0.07445154 Suebians
0.07665526 Vandals


once again a come out primarily as a Frenchie

[PT Tagus]

Target: Endovelicus_scaled
Distance: 1.3630% / 0.01363046 | R5P
47.4 Aquitania
20.2 Frisians
18.4 Greece
9.0 Arabian_Peninsula_Peoples
5.0 Nok_Civilization

[Lemurian]

Target: Lemurian_scaled
Distance: 1.5899% / 0.01589884
34.0 Balto_Slavs
27.2 Greece
14.2 Thracians_Getae
9.2 Free_Dacians
7.0 Sarmatians
5.8 Arsacid_Armenia
2.6 Illyrians_West_Dalmatia

Target: Lemurian_scaled
Distance: 1.7221% / 0.01722052 | ADC: 0.25x RC
31.2 Balto_Slavs
30.4 Free_Dacians
20.4 Thracians_Getae
10.2 Arsacid_Armenia
5.6 Illyrians_West_Dalmatia
2.2 Alans

Target: Lemurian_scaled
Distance: 2.0201% / 0.02020093 | ADC: 0.5x RC
58.0 Free_Dacians
23.0 Balto_Slavs
10.4 Illyrians_West_Dalmatia
8.6 Alans

[RyoHazuki]

Target: G25K13SimRyoHazuki
Distance: 0.8075% / 0.00807541 | ADC: 0.25x RC
37.8 Frisians
18.6 Noricum
13.0 Saxons
10.2 Hispania_north
9.2 Gallia_Armorica
6.4 Gallia_Belgica
2.8 Angles_Jutes
2.0 Gallia_Celtica

Target: Ryo_scaled
Distance: 2.5450% / 0.02544953 | ADC: 0.25x RC
41.8 Nordic_Scandinavians
22.4 Frisians
11.4 Aquitania
10.2 Caledonia
7.6 Noricum
5.8 Samaritans
0.8 Khoisan_Peoples

[Fabricius]

Target: Fabricius_simulated_g25_scaled
Distance: 1.1851% / 0.01185139 | R4P
72.2 Noricum
12.6 Maghreb
9.0 Balto_Slavs
6.2 Niger_Congo_Peoples

Target: Fabricius_simulated_g25_scaled
Distance: 0.7421% / 0.00742061 | R5P
43.0 Gallia_Belgica
23.0 Greece
16.2 Balto_Slavs
11.8 Maghreb
6.0 Niger_Congo_Peoples

Target: Fabricius_simulated_g25_scaled
Distance: 0.6248% / 0.00624793 | ADC: 0.25x RC
21.0 Noricum
19.8 Gallia_Belgica
18.6 Free_Dacians
11.2 Balto_Slavs
10.2 Maghreb
7.8 Italia_North
5.4 Hispania_south
3.8 Niger_Congo_Peoples
2.2 Ghana_Empire

Target: Fabricius_simulated_g25_scaled
Distance: 0.3214% / 0.00321436
20.6 Aquitania
17.2 Balto_Slavs
13.0 Warini
11.4 Greece
9.6 Maghreb
6.2 Niger_Congo_Peoples
5.6 Illyrians_West_Dalmatia
4.2 Bosporus_Greeks
4.0 Sardinia
3.6 Free_Dacians
2.0 Illyrians_East_Dalmatia
1.2 Sassanid_Empire
0.4 Brazil_Savanna_Tribes
0.4 Gallia_Armorica
0.4 Roman_Italia
0.2 Gallia_Narbonensis



Distance to: Fabricius_simulated_g25_scaled
0.06148349 Hispania_south
0.06170347 Italia_North
0.06968095 Romano_Britons
0.07202253 Noricum
0.07306868 Illyrians_West_Dalmatia
0.07568996 Free_Dacians
0.07781470 Raetia
0.07843655 Gallia_Narbonensis
0.08197023 Gallia_Celtica
0.08254720 Gallia_Belgica
0.08717609 Saxons
0.08722052 Illyrians_East_Dalmatia
0.08895182 Hispania_north
0.09007316 Aquitania
0.09127793 Roman_Italia
0.09275730 Angles_Jutes
0.09295228 Gallia_Armorica
0.09402994 Germania_Magna
0.09485884 Hibernia
0.09748240 Britannia
0.10013248 Caledonia
0.10164963 Warini
0.10242961 Bosporus_Greeks
0.10371027 Langobards
0.10407827 Thracians_Getae