Fluctuations Predict Collapse, from Ecosystems to the Stock Market

[Eldritch]

Early Warning Signal for Ecosystem Collapse: Fluctuations Before the Fall

Researchers eavesdropping on complex signals emanating from a remote Wisconsin lake have detected what they say is an unmistakable warning -- a death knell -- of the impending collapse of the lake's aquatic ecosystem.

Researchers have found that models used to assess catastrophic changes in economic and medical systems can also predict environmental collapse. Stock market crashes, epileptic seizures, and ecological breakdowns are all preceded by a measurable increase in variance—be it fluctuations in brain waves, the Dow Jones index, or, in the case of the Wisconsin lake, chlorophyll.


A tale of two lakes: Paul (reference lake) is smaller lake; Peter (manipulated lake) in background. (Credit: Steve Carpenter)

The finding, reported April 29 in the journal Science by a team of researchers led by Stephen Carpenter, a limnologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, is the first experimental evidence that radical change in an ecosystem can be detected in advance, possibly in time to prevent ecological catastrophe.

Full story here.

[Eldritch]

I was especially interested in the point mentioned in passing in the article, about how similar fluctuations seem to spell disaster in all kind of systems. I'll see if I can dig up anything else on that. If someone else can pitch in, I'd be most obliged.