Serbs Will Die Out in 500 Years

[Laudanum]

It seems you've got more people leaving the country than migrating into it... That was the case with 2003-2007, however in 2008:

http://statline.cbs.nl/StatWeb/publi...DR=T&STB=G5,G1

You got 142 000 people in, and only 116 000 out. I wonder how often those who emmigrate are ethnic Dutch...

Wow, I didn't know that yet. But like I said, for me it wouldn't be a reason to leave.

[The Lawspeaker]

Wow, I didn't know that yet. But like I said, for me it wouldn't be a reason to leave.

Well I knew this but it hasn't really changed the existing situation much.. or at all.

[Crvena zvezda]

I did a qucik search of this claim. Some other forum came up with the following response someone made to this article:

This topic has come up more then enoguh times already. The reponses given before will easily refute the claims made by alarmist [ often intentionally lying ].

The onyl thing good about this article is that it isn't a repeat of the bulls**t claims the trolls Tito has posted.


Quote:In Serbia during 2008, 30 thousand less children were born that is needed to maintain the natural reproduction exchange of the population. Serbia currently has the lowest birth rate in Europe, reports the Monday issue of Belgrade’s daily “Vecernje Novosti”, stating data from the Ministry of Social Politics.



Our death rate is 11.6 according to the UN [According to the CIA world factbook it is 13.86]. The UN lists our population as 7.5 million, the CIA as 7.35 million [ both are incorrect, I'll mention it later why].

The discrepancy is because the UN only counts citizens, while the CIA also counts popul;ation groups not counted by the UN stats <-- foreign citizens permanently in Serbia, refugees and repatriations.

Now using the UN figures over total number of deaths would come to around 84,000. Using the CIA figures it comes to around 102,000.

The number of births, for citizens ( posted by me around new years, link: http://www.pressonline.rs/page/stori...54806§ionId=33 ) in Serbia in 2008 was 75,000 and an increase of close to 10% on the previous years.

It's a question how they get this 30,000 lack of births figures, since according to UN figures this means there are 9,000 deficit, but 27,000 using CIA figures [ remember these births ignore children born to Montenegrin citizens permanently in Serbia, refugees and repatriations ].

The birth rate argument is also absurd. Our fertility rate is 1.79 according to the UN. The following European states have fertility rates below ours. Netherlands at 1.72, Luxembourg at 1.66, Belium at 1.65, Cyprus at 1.61, Estonia at 1.49, Portugal at 1.46, FYROM at 1.43, Switzerland at 1.42, Spain at 1.41, Georgia at 1.41, Molodva at 1.4, Armenia at 1.39, Italy at 1.38, Malata at 1.37, Germany at 1.36, Croatia at 1.34, Greece at 1.33, Bulgaria at 1.31, Romania at 1.3, Latvia at 1.29, Hungary at 1.28, Lithuania at 1.26, Slovakia at 1.25, Czech Republic at 1.24, Bosnia at 1.23, Poland at 1.23, Ukraine at 1.22, Belarus at 1.2.

Amazingly it seems the vast majority of European states has a birth rate below ours.


Quote:They stress that the number of children per couple has fallen from 4.1 to 0.81 and that the darkest predictions by experts show that, if this continues, Serbs will biologically die out in 500 years time.



4.1, the last time Serbia had a birthrate like that was post-WWII. I think the people giving these results should mention what years their talking about.

For the .81 figure to be true our birth rate would have to be about 20% below that of spain. Spain has 0.95 rate but a birth rate of 1.41 ( compared to Serbia's 1.79 ).


Quote:The Belgrade paper states the evaluation by the birth rate expert professor Biljana Spasic, according to which the number of marriages during the last two decades has fallen by one quarter, and that one third of marriages do not have descendants. Currently around 800 thousand citizens are seeking medical assistance in order to become parents. At the same time, data shows that around 200 thousand abortions occur per year in Serbia.



These claims here seems to be the only ones in the article based on facts.


Quote:“In the year 2100, central Serbia will have only 2.1 million citizens, and Vojvodina will have 800 thousand citizens, and in Kosovo the number, according to current trends, should be 4.4 million. So we will be a national minority in our own country” says Spasic.



Emigration to Vojvodina is low. They can't explain how Vojvodina's population drops by only 60%, but the rest of Serbia by 72%.

What even more goes against this vision is the fact that the rest of Serbia has a larger birth rate then Vojvodina. Has had one since WWII, and while the rest of Serbia [ignoring Kosovo] went to a sub-2.1 birth rate around the late 80s / early 90s, it happenned in Vojvodina in the 70s.

Also. Comparing Central Serbia ( ignoring Kosovo ), and Vojvodina the abortion rate in Vojvodina is twice as high.

Furthermore. your talking about something in a hundred years ago. In that time population dynamuics can change.

If I'm not mistaken pro-natalists just three years ago were claiming that by 2050 Kosovo would have 6.5 million people <-- an argument the Soros funded Forum for Ethnic Relations used as propaganda to get people to support Kosovo seperation.


Quoteuring the last 17 years, Serbia has lost half a million citizens without Kosovo, according to ‘Vecernje Novosti’ who report data from the experts from the state statistics institute. The statistics say that in 1991 there were slightly more than 7.8 million citizens in the country, And today there are slightly more than 7.3 million.



This argument is absurd. I wonder if this person is aware that the methodology used in the census has changed since 1991.

In 1991 citizens who were sojourners [ spent a significant time aborad each year ] were counted as being permanently risdent in Serbia. In 2002 this was changed. By not countign these our population fell from 7.8 million to 7.5 million <-- it's more accurate level.

Here is the specific information regarding sojourners.
http://sr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%...A4%D0%A0%D0%88

http://sr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%...B8%D1%98%D0%B8

In 1991, counting sojourners we had 7,822,795 citizens counted in the census. Without sojourners this number is 7,576,837.

In 2002, coutning sojourners we had 7,893,125 citizens counted in the cnesus. Without sojoruners this nubmer is the 7,498,001 often cited.

Now the fall to 7.3 million, in actuallity to 7.35 million, can likely also be linked to sojoruners and immigration.

Again I must add that all these claims amde in this article ignore four important groups not counted:
* Montenegrin citizens in Serbia. Number some 300,000. They have a birth rate slightly above the 2.1 rate.
* Refugees from Bosnia and Hercegovina. Number over 500,000+. From my experience they seem to have a birthrate 50% higher then that of citizens.
* Internally displaced people from Kosovo. Number some 200,000+. Like rfugees tend to have a birthrate 50% higher then that of citizens.
* Repatriations. They number some 50,000. From 2007 - 2011 <-- the next census, their will be 150,000. [ There return was a requirement ot get visa free status.]

^^^ The discrepancy of UN figures and CIA figures seem to involve these groups. CIA counts all deaths, UN only counts those of people with definitive status.


Quote:They added that it is concerning that the number of Serbian citizens is falling so fast, and that in order to have a positive birth rate, every family should have at least four children.



Also. Emigration is never dealth by natalists The drop in piopulation can easily be attributed to immigration. I haven't heard definitive figures on this. And will not post about them.

The positive birth rate argument is crap hear. A positive birthrate is 2.1. Pro-natalists claim their should be 3 children born per women, I guess this year they diecided to up the figure to claim that the situation is more dire when it isn't. [Ironcially made the year after a 10% jumps in births was recorded].

[Crvena zvezda]

And what is the birthrate in Estonia? Bear in mind that during 20th century more than 1/3 of Serbs (all population) has been killed (during 1st Balkan, 2nd Balkan war, WWI, WWII, and recent wars at the end of 20th century)... If that was not the case, there would be now more than 40.000.000 of Serbs all over the world, instead of 15.000.000 :|...

Don't be jealous....

Add communism.

The communists promoted 2 children as a sign of progress after 1953 and discouraged the republics from pursuing pro-natalist policies [Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia had the most liberal abortion policies in Europe (Serbia still doe, the other two I'm not sure)].

Slovenia's gave money for mothers with more births but it wasn't successful [their poopulation wanted up only some 20% in the 20th century]. In Kosovo they allowed the Albanians to give 4 times the amount in grants then Slovenia did <-- encouraging the Albanians to waste funds from other republics and have more births, under the gorunds that it would cuase problems if these funds were not allowed like in the other rpeublic.

FYROM never ahd any natalist policies.

[Amarantine]

uh I'm avoiding even to think about that...what to say about Montenegrins? I don't want to know! But there is a hope of course since Belgrade is the major Montenegrin city

[Brynhild]

Perhaps a breeding program by some of you nice young people? How hard can it be?

[Guapo]

uh I'm avoiding even to think about that...what to say about Montenegrins? I don't want to know! But there is a hope of course since Belgrade is the major Montenegrin city

Yipee...We are saved

[Guapo]

Perhaps a breeding program by some of you nice young people? How hard can it be?

I don't know about the others but I already have a program going

[Amarantine]

I don't know about the others but I already have a program going

I fulfilled it, but there is always a chance to added one more "project"

[Jarl]

Perhaps a breeding program by some of you nice young people? How hard can it be?

Yeah! Im in!