Pre-Slavic population in Croatia was closest to Italians from Marche and Molise

[Jana]

I ran extensive tests with modern south Euro populations and in all models Croatian regions would chose Marche (the most) for pre-Slavic part, followed by Molise and very minor Sardinian.

So to model pre-Slavic in Croats it's enough to use just these 3 pops

-Marche
-Molise
-Sardinia

For Slavic part they all prefer Belarusian Minsk and Ukrainian Belgorod (and north Croats minor Polish, but only them) rather than just Ukrainian which means proto Slavs could have been more northern than Ukrainian average.For Germanic input they always prefer Norwegians.

I tested other SE Euros too, east and south Balkanites will require adding of Crete and Lazio for pre-Slavic part and often for Slavic input they will prefer SW Russians (along with Minsk and Belgorod).
Seems no one prefer Ukrainian proper average.

Bosniaks can be modeled like Croats while Serbs and Montenegrins as well but they get minor Crete/Lazio in pre-Slavic part as well in modeling.

[Jana]

This is model for Croats, just few populations and fantastic fit:


Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:IT_Marche,25.48,9.49,23.15,11.52,25.53,3.8, 0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.18
Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:IT_Molise,20.11,8.57,21.61,14.07,29.62,4.58 ,0.02,0.47,0,0.38,0.25,0.16,0.16
Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:Sardinia,23.14,1.64,49.58,0.38,22.02,2.41,0 ,0.13,0.03,0,0.31,0.26,0.1
Early_Slavic:Belarusian_Minsk,27.19,49.58,9.18,4.6 3,4.58,0.53,1.26,0.24,1.21,0.72,0.43,0.21,0.22
Early_Slavic:Ukrainian_Belgorod,25.78,47.29,7.85,8 .78,5.54,0.58,1.10,0.71,1.02,0.59,0.25,0.16,0.34
Germanic:Norwegian,51.14,28.61,9.91,5.60,1.73,0.43 ,0.42,0.36,0.64,0.91,0.15,0.01,0.10

Target: Croat
Distance: 0.5536% / 0.55363717

56.1 Early_Slavic
33.0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman
10.9 Germanic

Target: Croat_West
Distance: 0.8234% / 0.82339580

50.9 Early_Slavic
40.8 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman
8.3 Germanic

Target: Croat_North
Distance: 0.4263% / 0.42633262

56.2 Early_Slavic
26.6 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman
17.2 Germanic

Target: Croat_East
Distance: 0.9310% / 0.93096020

61.7 Early_Slavic
32.2 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman
6.1 Germanic

Target: Croat_South
Distance: 0.6561% / 0.65613666

56.1 Early_Slavic
38.3 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman
5.6 Germanic

Notice how south and north Croats score same amount of Slavic, but difference is in amount of south and nw euro admix.

[17571imre]

me and my mom with your model:
Croat West is both in our top 5 closest distance.

my result:

Target: Imre
Distance: 1.2003% / 1.20026571
45.8 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman
34.6 Early_Slavic
19.6 Germanic

mother
Target: cb
Distance: 3.9447% / 3.94471428
43.6 Early_Slavic
38.3 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman
18.1 Germanic

[Ajeje Brazorf]

It may indeed be that there was such a genetic profile in the Balkans towards the end of the 6th century AD.

Global25:


Target: Croatian
Distance: 0.0040% / 0.00402055 | R3P
65.1 Ukrainian
22.5 Italian_Bergamo
12.4 Italian_Marche

Target: Serbian
Distance: 0.0083% / 0.00829175 | R3P
41.0 Lithuanian_RA
31.6 Italian_Lombardy
27.4 Greek_Crete

[NSXD60]

Damned invaders, the paisans gotta reclaim and rename their mama's sacred land to Wogatia.

[Gaditanian]

Distance: 7.4742% / 7.47423528
60.9 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman
39.1 Germanic

[MandM]

Target: Milenko
Distance: 343.0577% / 3.43057687
54.4 Early_Slavic
45.6 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman

[Ibericus]

But the croat iron age samples we have are like north italians,

[Jana]

But the croat iron age samples we have are like north italians,

And? That was before the Roman conquest. Croats can't be modeled well with north Italians, their pre-Slavic part is more southern.

[Token]

Your observations are congruent with what i've observed when looking at Balkanites with qpAdm. Croatians need admixture from an East Mediterranean source - Myceanaean or Imperial Roman-like - besides Croatian_IA to model their pre-Slavic ancestry.

[Jana]

Your observations are congruent with what i've observed when looking at Balkanites with qpAdm. Croatians need admixture from an East Mediterranean source - Myceanaean or Imperial Roman-like - besides Croatian_IA to model their pre-Slavic ancestry.

Yep :) when you mix illyrian samples with some east med, result come close to marche/molise with minor sardinian :)