Iberia: Fall of the roman empire model

[Damião de Góis]

Disclaimer: I don't know how to make models. I don't know if i chose the right proxies for each population, so if your results suck you know why.

I tried to think of every population that had some sort of connection to the Iberian Peninsula during this period, and since i don't know the ancient samples too well, i went for modern, which isn't the most correct.



Iberian:Basque_Araba,0.1275854,0.1485442,0.0590365 ,0.0157976,0.0537723,0.0043864,-0.0024142,0.0040906,0.0254166,0.0380211,-0.0069532,0.0096325,-0.0220693,-0.0149507,0.0158915,-0.0007835,-0.007337,6.91e-05,0.0003998,-0.004036,0.0089726,0.0019447,-0.0048067,-0.006244,-0.0004463
Berber:Berber_Tunisia_Chen,-0.0279499,0.1390711,-0.0080871,-0.0764792,0.0277316,-0.0352023,-0.0313867,0.0052818,0.0684246,0.0297957,0.0040057,-0.0043877,0.0196314,-0.0161248,0.0140923,-0.0169052,0.0001521,-0.0232896,-0.0467247,0.0078579,-0.0168314,-0.0404275,0.0281347,-0.0044517,0.0063666
Pheonician:Lebanese_Druze,0.0841153,0.1404478,-0.0496667,-0.070091,-0.0156642,-0.0251838,-0.0024205,-0.0053304,-0.0023112,0.0075992,0.0051477,-0.0030274,0.009083,0.0020232,-0.0068675,0.0061655,-0.0020861,0.0008361,0.0024761,-0.000913,-0.0013225,0.0019414,0.0002465,0.0025182,-0.0005866
Greek:Greek_Dodecanese,0.1059692,0.1461347,-0.0244374,-0.0567511,0.0021851,-0.0183789,0.0038071,-0.0042228,-0.0028019,0.0166563,0.0048066,0.0020682,-0.0044895,-0.0005644,-0.0123505,-0.0012728,0.0032987,0.0050168,0.0058701,-0.0047523,-0.0043049,-0.0009647,0.000345,-0.0008676,-0.0034127
Continental_Celt:Swiss_French,0.1273395,0.1448398, 0.0414364,0.0102149,0.0411615,0.0064842,0.0008224, 0.0028845,0.0118111,0.0194308,-0.000751,0.0065942,-0.0159622,-0.0125238,0.0083468,0.0021712,0.0057533,-0.0016154,0.003661,-0.0003439,0.0047886,0.0036478,0.0016638,0.0025756,-0.0004791
Germanic:Dutch,0.1274407,0.1341783,0.0602712,0.044 0759,0.0408435,0.0163974,0.0054023,0.0072633,0.004 2087,0.0019245,-0.0056347,0.0044274,-0.0098456,-0.0086761,0.01783,0.0056231,-0.0065161,0.0017477,0.0039087,0.0028161,0.00448,0. 0033848,-5.1e-06,0.0138921,-0.0006557
Roman:Italian_Lazio,0.1131402,0.1527356,0.0067882,-0.0343026,0.021173,-0.0109324,0.003243,-0.000277,0.0064218,0.0242372,0.0005196,0.0025478,-0.0095738,-0.0052296,-0.0067316,0.0029434,0.0010432,0.000456,0.0026898,-0.004227,-0.0019214,0.0042288,0.000567,0.0007232,-0.0005748
Sephardic:Sephardic_Jew,0.0907738,0.145094,-0.0233814,-0.0609662,0.0057318,-0.0219276,-0.0054344,-0.002596,0.0116579,0.0199775,0.004202,0.0001688,5. 56e-05,-0.0005678,-0.00436,-0.0065301,-0.0081814,-0.000475,-0.0013355,-0.0065658,-0.0048508,-0.0059044,0.001217,0.0025606,0.0024399
Alan:Armenian_Gesaria,0.106709,0.1350652,-0.0527968,-0.0601588,-0.0259278,-0.0151298,0.0045238,-0.0047305,-0.0279178,-0.0018678,0.0040598,0.0022855,-0.003568,0.0025805,-0.0050215,-0.0042098,-3.25e-05,0.0003483,0.0017912,-0.0043145,0.0009985,0.005286,-0.0024648,-0.0015965,0.0012872




Target: Portuguese
Distance: 0.6270% / 0.00626977
47.8 Iberian
28.0 Continental_Celt
12.4 Berber
6.2 Greek
2.4 Sephardic
1.8 Pheonician
1.4 Germanic

Target: Gil_Vicente
Distance: 2.0558% / 0.02055774
52.4 Iberian
20.4 Germanic
11.2 Berber
9.4 Sephardic
6.6 Alan

I'm not sure if Armenian is right for Alans, but they held a huge chunk of the peninsula at some point and even left a dog breed here, and they are usually left out of iberian models.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a5/Hispania_418_AD.PNG/1024px-Hispania_418_AD.PNG

[vader]

Target: Algarvio_scaled
Distance: 1.3595% / 0.01359489
41.4 Continental_Celt
38.2 Iberian
14.8 Berber
5.6 Greek

Target: dad_scaled
Distance: 1.4319% / 0.01431922
46.8 Iberian
34.6 Continental_Celt
15.2 Berber
3.4 Sephardic

Target: mom_scaled
Distance: 2.5699% / 0.02569945
50.8 Iberian
18.6 Germanic
15.4 Sephardic
13.8 Berber
1.4 Greek

[gixajo]

Target: gixajo_scaled
Distance: 1.8306% / 0.01830604
73.6 Iberian
11.0 Roman
6.4 Greek
4.6 Germanic
4.4 Berber

https://i.imgur.com/XRUuHY9.png

[Upsilander]

Target: UpsilanderScaled
Distance: 2.9309% / 0.02930874
84.0 Germanic
15.8 Iberian
0.2 Continental_Celt


Distance to: UpsilanderScaled
0.03097316 Germanic:Dutch
0.05257001 Continental_Celt:Swiss_French
0.06020085 Iberian:Basque_Araba
0.11205244 Roman:Italian_Lazio
0.15374563 Greek:Greek_Dodecanese
0.16032111 Sephardic:Sephardic_Jew
0.18412577 Alan:Armenian_Gesaria
0.19040309 Pheonician:Lebanese_Druze
0.25628744 Berber:Berber_Tunisia_Chen

[Athalafuns]

Target: RNB27
Distance: 1.6127% / 0.01612722
44.2 Iberian
18.8 Continental_Celt
17.0 Germanic
10.0 Berber
10.0 Greek


Distance to: RNB27
0.03128694 Continental_Celt:Swiss_French
0.04155103 Iberian:Basque_Araba
0.06569706 Germanic:Dutch
0.06581845 Roman:Italian_Lazio
0.10886255 Sephardic:Sephardic_Jew
0.10888815 Greek:Greek_Dodecanese
0.14368158 Pheonician:Lebanese_Druze
0.14816175 Alan:Armenian_Gesaria
0.19811201 Berber:Berber_Tunisia_Chen

[Beowulf]

Why now that I don't have acces to my PC and my coordinates is when people posts new G25 calls??!? :sad:

[Mopi The Dire Wolf]

Target: Mposter_scaled
Distance: 1.6064% / 0.01606354
41.4 Germanic
21.4 Iberian
19.4 Continental_Celt
14.2 Roman
3.6 Berber

Distance to: Mopster_scaled
0.02286960 Continental_Celt:Swiss_French
0.04100760 Iberian:Basque_Araba
0.04450590 Germanic:Dutch
0.07611840 Roman:Italian_Lazio
0.11940273 Greek:Greek_Dodecanese
0.12261400 Sephardic:Sephardic_Jew
0.15441377 Alan:Armenian_Gesaria
0.15525908 Pheonician:Lebanese_Druze
0.21767798 Berber:Berber_Tunisia_Chen

[Damião de Góis]

Why now that I don't have acces to my PC and my coordinates is when people posts new G25 calls??!? :sad:

What happened to your PC?

[Beowulf]

What happened to your PC?

I'm not in Mallorca currently of course I cannot bring it here to Tarragona by disgrace :sad:

[Mopi The Dire Wolf]

I'm not in Mallorca currently of course I cannot bring it here to Tarragona by disgrace :sad:

You will be surrounded by FC Farzalona fans there :(

I hope you stay safe from them until you return to Mallorca :p

[EasternLusitanian]

Target: MV_scaled
Distance: 0.0192% / 0.01921617
41.6 Iberian
25.3 Continental_Celt
15.1 Berber
10.9 Roman
7.1 Pheonician

Distance to: MV_scaled
0.04907694 Continental_Celt:Swiss_French
0.05502192 Roman:Italian_Lazio
0.05978938 Iberian:Basque_Araba
0.08835117 Germanic:Dutch
0.09135591 Sephardic:Sephardic_Jew
0.09570777 Greek:Greek_Dodecanese
0.12793411 Pheonician:Lebanese_Druze
0.13757367 Alan:Armenian_Gesaria
0.17877315 Berber:Berber_Tunisia_Chen

[Kenshiro]

Target: Kenshiro_scaled
Distance: 2.4508% / 0.02450771
46.8 Continental_Celt
42.8 Greek
10.2 Alan
0.2 Berber

[Dušan]

Target: Dušan_scaled
Distance: 5.5512% / 0.05551168
73.4 Germanic:Dutch
26.6 Greek:Greek_Dodecanese


Added Ukrainian immigrants


Target: Dušan_scaled
Distance: 2.4970% / 0.02497040
63.8 Slavic:Ukrainian_Sumy
18.2 Greek:Greek_Dodecanese
10.8 Roman:Italian_Lazio
7.2 Iberian:Basque_Araba

[vader]

@Damiao

I think there is too much overfitting going on with the model. Especially between Continental Celt, Iberian and Germanic. Depending on the fit it'll adjust with any of those three.

[Jingle Bell]

Target: JingleBell_scaled
Distance: 1.8556% / 0.01855590
44.6 Sub_Saharan_African
33.6 Iberian
12.0 Pheonician
7.0 Berber
2.8 Amerindian

Target: JingleBell_Dad_scaled
Distance: 1.0199% / 0.01019897
36.0 Sub_Saharan_African
25.4 Iberian
16.2 Roman
8.2 Pheonician
6.2 Amerindian
5.0 Continental_Celt
3.0 Berber

[Gallop]

Target: Gallop_scaled
Distance: 1.8294% / 0.01829350
68.0 Iberian
12.0 Continental_Celt
11.0 Berber
6.2 Alan
2.8 Germanic

Target: Father_scaled
Distance: 2.4634% / 0.02463426
59.0 Iberian
16.4 Roman
13.0 Berber
11.6 Germanic

Target: brother_scaled
Distance: 1.9981% / 0.01998147
73.8 Iberian
12.8 Berber
12.8 Greek
0.6 Continental_Celt

[celticdragongod]

Distance to: CDG_scaled
0.01968107 Germanic:Dutch
0.06015047 Continental_Celt:Swiss_French
0.06873613 Iberian:Basque_Araba
0.11912382 Roman:Italian_Lazio
0.15861031 Greek:Greek_Dodecanese
0.16289975 Sephardic:Sephardic_Jew
0.18600796 Alan:Armenian_Gesaria
0.19175987 Pheonician:Lebanese_Druze
0.25362784 Berber:Berber_Tunisia_Chen


Target: CDG_scaled
Distance: 1.9681% / 0.01968107
100.0 Germanic:Dutch

[cass]

Distance to: CDG_scaled
0.01968107 Germanic:Dutch
0.06015047 Continental_Celt:Swiss_French
0.06873613 Iberian:Basque_Araba
0.11912382 Roman:Italian_Lazio
0.15861031 Greek:Greek_Dodecanese
0.16289975 Sephardic:Sephardic_Jew
0.18600796 Alan:Armenian_Gesaria
0.19175987 Pheonician:Lebanese_Druze
0.25362784 Berber:Berber_Tunisia_Chen


Target: CDG_scaled
Distance: 1.9681% / 0.01968107
100.0 Germanic:Dutch

Target: cass
Distance: 4.2851% / 0.04285105
100.0 Germanic:Dutch

Distance to: cass
0.04285105 Germanic:Dutch
0.07534404 Continental_Celt:Swiss_French
0.08849451 Iberian:Basque_Araba
0.12610562 Roman:Italian_Lazio
0.16229152 Greek:Greek_Dodecanese
0.16847679 Sephardic:Sephardic_Jew
0.18824203 Alan:Armenian_Gesaria
0.19401081 Pheonician:Lebanese_Druze
0.25853412 Berber:Berber_Tunisia_Chen


everything too distant ...

[Damião de Góis]

@Damiao

I think there is too much overfitting going on with the model. Especially between Continental Celt, Iberian and Germanic. Depending on the fit it'll adjust with any of those three.


That could well be the case, which is why i wrote the disclaimer.

[vader]

That could well be the case, which is why i wrote the disclaimer.

It’s a good calculator though all things considered. It’s difficult to separate some of these groups, many are cousins one way or another

[Beowulf]

Target: Beowulf_Merged_Scaled
Distance: 0.0094% / 0.00944104
34.1 Iberian
30.5 Continental_Celt
19.8 Germanic
7.7 Greek
4.4 Berber
3.5 Alan