White American State Averages K15

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03-06-2026, 08:08 PM
Highwayman

oneeye_exploreyourdna_simulated_scaled
0.01554567 Washington(n=25)
0.01555848 Virginia(n=49)
0.01562149 Missouri(n=25)
0.01572080 South_Carolina(n=52)
0.01573451 Arizona(n=5)
0.01597512 Kentucky(n=65)
0.01599329 California(n=60)
0.01599354 West_Wirginia(n=43)
0.01626083 Oklahoma(n=27)
0.01629685 Tennessee(n=47)
0.01640585 Texas(n=37)
0.01646588 Mississippi(n=22)
0.01649354 Georgia(n=50)
0.01652228 Alabama(n=73)
0.01654800 Kansas(n=20)
0.01658747 North_Carolina(n=74)
0.01728156 Iowa(n=34)
0.01732312 Montana(n=5)
0.01742906 Wyoming(n=5)
0.01743847 Idaho(n=12)
0.01754646 Maine(n=30)
0.01755396 Florida(n=28)
0.01755489 Delaware(n=9)
0.01756099 Ohio(n=51)
0.01768881 Colorado(n=5)
03-06-2026, 08:10 PM
Defcon2

I'm not white but:

Target: Defcon2
Distance: 1985.3307% / 19.85330703
100.0 Louisiana_White(n=97)

Distance to: Defcon2
19.85330703 Louisiana_White(n=97)
22.01196039 New_Jersey_White(n=30)
22.66494871 New_York_White(n=175)
23.19152863 Massachusetts_White(n=82)
23.51722985 Rhode_Island_White(n=14)
23.71170386 New_Mexico_White(n=2)
23.89657716 California_White(n=60)
23.94659892 Florida_White(n=28)
24.08023671 Connecticut_White(n=29)
24.40056967 Montana_White(n=5)
24.78498134 Vermont_White(n=5)
24.99598568 Pennsylvania_White(n=179)
25.24495197 Ohio_White(n=100)
25.25004356 Kansas_White(n=20)
25.39266430 Wyoming_White(n=5)
25.40858910 West_Wirginia_White(n=43)
25.43432523 Missouri_White(n=59)
25.62894653 Maine_White(n=30)
25.72166402 Texas_White(n=97)
25.74654734 Virginia_White(n=87)
25.75876356 North_Carolina_White(n=102)
25.91249120 South_Carolina_White(n=52)
25.91742271 Alabama_White(n=73)
26.03014406 Oklahoma_White(n=27)
26.09611082 New_Hampshire_White(n=14)
03-06-2026, 08:13 PM
Highwayman

Quote:

Originally Posted by J. Ketch

It's curious that Utahns are significantly more Insular Celt-shifted than Southerners, despite the South having much more of that ancestry on paper.

They’re probably very Puritan descended in particular.
03-06-2026, 08:16 PM
Peterski

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marena

G25 simulated from K13 and K15 are grotesquely inaccurate.

Only K36 produces simulations that are relatively close to real coordinates.

I remember someone checked this and coordinates simulated from K15 were not that much less accurate than K36.
03-06-2026, 08:20 PM
Highwayman

Oops, with Peterski’s latest update?

oneeye_exploreyourdna_simulated_scaled
0.01549289 Virginia(n=87)
0.01554567 Washington(n=25)
0.01562149 Missouri(n=25)
0.01572080 South_Carolina(n=52)
0.01573451 Arizona(n=5)
0.01597512 Kentucky(n=65)
0.01599329 California(n=60)
0.01599354 West_Wirginia(n=43)
0.01626083 Oklahoma(n=27)
0.01629685 Tennessee(n=47)
0.01640585 Texas(n=37)
0.01646588 Mississippi(n=22)
0.01649354 Georgia(n=50)
0.01652228 Alabama(n=73)
0.01654800 Kansas(n=20)
0.01658747 North_Carolina(n=74)
0.01728156 Iowa(n=34)
0.01732312 Montana(n=5)
0.01742906 Wyoming(n=5)
0.01743847 Idaho(n=12)
0.01754646 Maine(n=30)
0.01755396 Florida(n=28)
0.01755489 Delaware(n=9)
0.01756099 Ohio(n=51)
0.01768881 Colorado(n=5)
03-06-2026, 08:22 PM
Marena

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peterski

I remember someone checked this and coordinates simulated from K15 were not that much less accurate than K36.

I remember very vividly from all the way back in 2022 when simulation tools were created the experiments had shown that K36 sims deviate the least on average.
03-06-2026, 08:24 PM
Peterski

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marena

I remember very vividly from all the way back in 2022 when simulation tools were created the experiments had shown that K36 sims deviate the least on average.

Yes but I think the difference in accuracy was something like 96% for K36 and 92% for K15.

Not such a dramatic difference.
03-06-2026, 08:27 PM
Marena

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peterski

Yes but I think the difference in accuracy was something like 96% for K36 and 92% for K15.

Not such a dramatic difference.

4% and 8% margin error is twice the difference.
03-06-2026, 08:42 PM
Peterski

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marena

4% and 8% margin error is twice the difference.

Yeah but still K15 sims are mostly accurate.
03-07-2026, 01:47 AM
Gannicus

3 Attachment(s)

Gedmatch from what I can tell doesn't have just Eurogenes K15. Hopefully this works.

Eurogenes EUtest V2 K15:

Attachment 147205
Attachment 147206
Attachment 147207

K15

Distance to: Gannicus_MergedFile_K15
5.51473481 Arizona_White(n=5)
5.73248637 Wyoming_White(n=5)
5.79169233 North_Carolina_White(n=102)
5.80354202 Mississippi_White(n=54)
5.96969011 West_Wirginia_White(n=43)
6.04797487 Kentucky_White(n=130)
6.16860600 Delaware_White(n=9)
6.16991896 Maine_White(n=30)
6.19348852 Virginia_White(n=87)
6.22038584 Georgia_White(n=96)
6.22679693 Alabama_White(n=73)
6.33043442 Utah_White_with_CEU_1KGP(n=90)
6.38856791 Oklahoma_White(n=27)
6.40997660 South_Carolina_White(n=52)
6.46250725 Utah_White(n=29)
6.56278142 Tennessee_White(n=95)
6.58088900 Colorado_White(n=5)
6.65641044 Texas_White(n=97)
6.66095339 Missouri_White(n=59)
6.78427594 Arkansas_White(n=40)
7.06198980 Indiana_White(n=57)
7.30594279 Florida_White(n=28)
7.49013351 Vermont_White(n=5)
7.50049998 Oregon_White(n=18)
7.67157090 Iowa_White(n=34)

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_K15
Distance: 5.3725% / 5.37253852
56.4 Arizona_White(n=5)
18.3 Utah_White_with_CEU_1KGP(n=90)
13.7 Delaware_White(n=9)
11.6 Louisiana_White(n=97)

G25:

Distance to: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
0.02562453 Arizona(n=5)
0.02679191 Wyoming(n=5)
0.02712036 Mississippi(n=22)
0.02729624 Missouri(n=25)
0.02731458 West_Wirginia(n=43)
0.02747378 Kentucky(n=65)
0.02750250 Virginia(n=87)
0.02759561 Delaware(n=9)
0.02775098 North_Carolina(n=74)
0.02789118 California(n=60)
0.02799442 South_Carolina(n=52)
0.02823704 Oklahoma(n=27)
0.02825572 Tennessee(n=47)
0.02836015 Florida(n=28)
0.02836046 Maine(n=30)
0.02842817 Georgia(n=50)
0.02849008 Alabama(n=73)
0.02889684 Utah(n=52)
0.02892171 Washington(n=25)
0.02892297 Louisiana(n=97)
0.02902930 Texas(n=37)
0.02938902 Kansas(n=20)
0.02952763 Colorado(n=5)
0.02955807 Montana(n=5)
0.02958689 Rhode_Island(n=14)

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0248% / 0.02480016
71.5 Arizona(n=5)
23.0 Louisiana(n=97)
5.5 New_Mexico(n=2)

Compare to top ten G25 modern averages:

Distance to: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
0.02110388 French_Brittany
0.02232377 Welsh
0.02363992 English_Cornwall
0.02388696 English
0.02540987 Dutch
0.02573046 Scottish
0.02574029 French_Pas-de-Calais
0.02580481 BelgianB
0.02636155 Irish
0.02720936 Orcadian
03-07-2026, 09:03 AM
gixajo

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marena

G25 simulated from K13 and K15 are grotesquely inaccurate.

Only K36 produces simulations that are relatively close to real coordinates.

Maybe, but the difference among them is not that much.
03-07-2026, 09:07 AM
gixajo

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marena

I remember very vividly from all the way back in 2022 when simulation tools were created the experiments had shown that K36 sims deviate the least on average.

I made simulated G25 coordinates based on K13, K15 etc. well before those online tools appeared.;)
03-07-2026, 09:36 AM
Defcon2

Quote:

Originally Posted by gixajo

Maybe, but the difference among them is not that much.

I created simulated coordinates, what do you think? There is quite a difference, but they also have similarities.

https://i.imgur.com/K6s9Kgt.png

Distances:

Spoiler!

Distance to: Defcon2_K13
0.01595682 Spanish_Andalucia
0.01790920 Portuguese
0.01817493 Spanish_Galicia
0.01865689 Spanish_Murcia
0.01929948 Spanish_Cantabria
0.01939998 Spanish_Extremadura
0.01940017 Spanish_Valencia
0.01943729 Spanish_Alacant
0.01957887 Spanish_Castilla_Y_Leon
0.01967661 Spanish_Castilla_La_Mancha
0.01996360 Spanish_Aragon
0.02110085 Spanish_Cataluna
0.02271800 Spanish_Pirineu
0.02300525 Spanish_Eivissa
0.02362746 Spanish_Castello
0.02371670 Spanish_La_Rioja
0.02472787 Spanish_Navarra
0.02487453 Spanish_Terres_de_l'Ebre
0.02501877 Spanish_Baleares
0.02508181 Spanish_Menorca
0.02509542 Spanish_Peri-Barcelona
0.02623736 Spanish_Mallorca
0.02629121 Spanish_Camp_de_Tarragona
0.02654748 Spanish_Lleida
0.02666369 Spanish_Barcelones

Distance to: Defcon2_K15
0.01656676 Spanish_Andalucia
0.01702815 Portuguese
0.01782313 Spanish_Galicia
0.01877776 Spanish_Extremadura
0.01922112 Spanish_Castilla_Y_Leon
0.02103485 Spanish_Alacant
0.02124310 Spanish_Castilla_La_Mancha
0.02147433 Spanish_Cantabria
0.02199022 Spanish_Murcia
0.02227086 Spanish_Aragon
0.02232916 Spanish_Valencia
0.02391216 Spanish_Cataluna
0.02509893 Spanish_Eivissa
0.02558878 Spanish_Pirineu
0.02566532 Spanish_Navarra
0.02618703 Spanish_La_Rioja
0.02672417 Spanish_Castello
0.02699668 Spanish_Baleares
0.02707103 Spanish_Camp_de_Tarragona
0.02759460 Spanish_Peri-Barcelona
0.02767162 Spanish_Terres_de_l'Ebre
0.02809616 Spanish_Menorca
0.02869992 Spanish_Girona
0.02874676 Spanish_Lleida
0.02882849 Spanish_Mallorca

Distance to: Defcon2_K36
0.02425524 Spanish_Andalucia
0.02569265 Spanish_Castilla_La_Mancha
0.02598840 Portuguese
0.02604315 Spanish_Cantabria
0.02642722 Spanish_Aragon
0.02679567 Spanish_Extremadura
0.02696571 Spanish_Galicia
0.02712189 Spanish_La_Rioja
0.02719879 Spanish_Alacant
0.02732842 Spanish_Murcia
0.02778054 Spanish_Valencia
0.02828539 Spanish_Castilla_Y_Leon
0.02832505 Spanish_Pirineu
0.02992777 Spanish_Castello
0.03025174 Spanish_Cataluna
0.03038169 Spanish_Navarra
0.03040653 Spanish_Menorca
0.03058851 Spanish_Eivissa
0.03083713 Spanish_Baleares
0.03095674 Spanish_Terres_de_l'Ebre
0.03233282 Spanish_Peri-Barcelona
0.03240760 Spanish_Burgos
0.03328990 Spanish_Lleida
0.03380831 Spanish_Girona
0.03393750 Spanish_Camp_de_Tarragona

Distance to: Defcon2_scaled
0.02910482 Spanish_Castilla_Y_Leon
0.03060709 Spanish_Andalucia
0.03207127 Spanish_Murcia
0.03254575 Portuguese
0.03321373 Spanish_Extremadura
0.03357220 Spanish_Galicia
0.03396093 Spanish_Asturias
0.03519859 Spanish_Castilla_La_Mancha
0.03564592 Spanish_Valencia
0.03572437 Spanish_Aragon
0.03575522 Spanish_Alacant
0.03579735 Spanish_Menorca
0.03637562 Spanish_Cantabria
0.03689185 Spanish_Eivissa
0.03726846 Spanish_Baleares
0.03763305 Spanish_Cataluna
0.03918692 Spanish_Terres_de_l'Ebre
0.03940781 Spanish_Pirineu
0.04021333 Spanish_Barcelones
0.04023845 Spanish_Mallorca
0.04029475 Spanish_Canarias
0.04040939 Spanish_Peri-Barcelona
0.04043416 Spanish_Lleida
0.04043550 Spanish_Navarra
0.04049903 Spanish_Camp_de_Tarragona
03-07-2026, 10:08 AM
Marena

Quote:

Originally Posted by Defcon2

I created simulated coordinates, what do you think? There is quite a difference, but they also have similarities.

It looks like in your case K36 is less accurate, defying the general trend.

For the cleanest experiment you need to put real coordinates in "TARGET", put all simulations in "SOURCE" and then simply run "DISTANCE".
03-07-2026, 11:27 AM
celticdragongod

Distance to: CDG
4.12811095 New_Hampshire_White(n=14)
4.27693816 Oregon_White(n=18)
5.15911814 Alabama_White(n=73)
5.30883226 Utah_White_with_CEU_1KGP(n=90)
5.32390834 North_Carolina_White(n=102)
5.32787012 Kansas_White(n=20)
5.49937269 Idaho_White(n=12)
5.52865264 Mississippi_White(n=54)
5.64098396 Georgia_White(n=96)
5.65653604 Indiana_White(n=57)
5.79798241 Virginia_White(n=87)
5.80597106 Texas_White(n=97)
5.83108052 South_Carolina_White(n=52)
5.83234087 Tennessee_White(n=95)
5.84011130 Iowa_White(n=34)
5.84516039 Utah_White(n=29)
6.11210275 Missouri_White(n=59)
6.14290648 Kentucky_White(n=130)
6.26037539 Arkansas_White(n=40)
6.26842085 West_Virginia_White(n=43)
6.28088370 Oklahoma_White(n=27)
6.28571396 Maine_White(n=30)
6.33817797 South_Dakota_White(n=6)
6.41802929 Ohio_White(n=100)
6.45420793 Nebraska_White(n=24)

Target: CDG
Distance: 335.5781% / 3.35578144
64.0 Utah_White_with_CEU_1KGP(n=90)
20.4 North_Dakota_White(n=10)
15.6 New_Hampshire_White(n=14)
03-07-2026, 12:08 PM
Defcon2

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marena

It looks like in your case K36 is less accurate, defying the general trend.

For the cleanest experiment you need to put real coordinates in "TARGET", put all simulations in "SOURCE" and then simply run "DISTANCE".

Distance to: Defcon2_scaled
0.02712876 Defcon2_K15
0.02756935 Defcon2_K13
0.03218141 Defcon2_K36
03-07-2026, 12:28 PM
Fistora

I noticed in several cases that the simulated k13 and k15 samples from Slavic-origin countries are northwest drifted compared to their g25. However, for people from Western Europe, this is not clear-cut - often k13 or k15 match well with G25.
03-07-2026, 12:39 PM
gixajo

Quote:

Originally Posted by Defcon2

I created simulated coordinates, what do you think? There is quite a difference, but they also have similarities.

[/spoiler]

Take the average of all of them, except for the actual coordinates of G25, and that's it. They all have the same value in reality.;)
03-07-2026, 12:43 PM
gixajo

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marena

It looks like in your case K36 is less accurate, defying the general trend.

For the cleanest experiment you need to put real coordinates in "TARGET", put all simulations in "SOURCE" and then simply run "DISTANCE".

We'd also need to see how they plot on a PCA, and the distance list for each one.

That is, if we consider accuracy as "more similar to G25 official coordinates" and not as better representing our reality, although that's another debate.
03-07-2026, 07:05 PM
rothaer

Distance to: rothaer
6.34376071 North_Dakota_White(n=10)
8.24706008 Wisconsin_White(n=65)
8.99057840 Michigan_White(n=72)
9.97088261 Minnesota_White(n=27)
11.19770066 Illinois_White(n=107)
12.57333687 Maryland_White(n=37)
12.85830471 Connecticut_White(n=29)
13.38817762 Pennsylvania_White(n=179)
14.06932834 South_Dakota_White(n=6)
14.69721402 Nebraska_White(n=24)
14.83357678 Ohio_White(n=100)
15.25494018 Massachusetts_White(n=82)
15.29827441 New_Hampshire_White(n=14)
15.34464728 Idaho_White(n=12)
15.43820262 Washington_White(n=25)
15.56547140 New_Mexico_White(n=2)
15.73163691 Iowa_White(n=34)
15.74285235 Montana_White(n=5)
15.74392581 California_White(n=60)
15.79685095 Indiana_White(n=57)
15.90328582 Kansas_White(n=20)
15.91179751 Oregon_White(n=18)
16.02346717 New_York_White(n=175)
16.04506778 Florida_White(n=28)
16.40679128 Texas_White(n=97)
16.54101267 Colorado_White(n=5)
16.54215524 Missouri_White(n=59)
16.62416915 South_Carolina_White(n=52)
16.82739730 Tennessee_White(n=95)
16.87766572 New_Jersey_White(n=30)
16.88270713 West_Virginia_White(n=43)
16.88795429 Oklahoma_White(n=27)
16.89659433 Virginia_White(n=87)
16.91953309 Alabama_White(n=73)
16.98880808 Arkansas_White(n=40)
17.14558544 Maine_White(n=30)
17.17490902 Rhode_Island_White(n=14)
17.25072462 Vermont_White(n=5)
17.28406781 Kentucky_White(n=130)
17.30595851 Georgia_White(n=96)
17.42123130 Mississippi_White(n=54)
17.45326044 North_Carolina_White(n=102)
17.50407952 Utah_White(n=29)
18.10617022 Wyoming_White(n=5)
18.19513122 Louisiana_White(n=97)
18.20031044 Delaware_White(n=9)
18.45014092 Arizona_White(n=5)
18.86448515 Utah_White_with_CEU_1KGP(n=90)
03-07-2026, 09:39 PM
Peterski

I added Native American compatibility to the datasheet.
03-07-2026, 10:40 PM
bc76

Target: bc76
Distance: 324.0597% / 3.24059685
80.4 Utah_White_with_CEU_1KGP(n=90)
12.0 Minnesota_White(n=27)
6.6 North_Dakota_White(n=10)
1.0 Wisconsin_White(n=65)

Distance to: bc76
3.84007812 Oregon_White(n=18)
3.99097732 Utah_White_with_CEU_1KGP(n=90)
4.29595158 Mississippi_White(n=54)
4.35369958 Alabama_White(n=73)
4.36567291 Georgia_White(n=96)
4.36986270 Utah_White(n=29)
4.42818247 North_Carolina_White(n=102)
4.55733475 Arkansas_White(n=40)
4.65030107 New_Hampshire_White(n=14)
4.74298429 Kentucky_White(n=130)
4.76288778 Idaho_White(n=12)
4.82008299 Indiana_White(n=57)
4.85004124 South_Carolina_White(n=52)
4.85056698 Tennessee_White(n=95)
4.97099588 Maine_White(n=30)
5.02595265 Virginia_White(n=87)
5.04227131 Texas_White(n=97)
5.06174871 Iowa_White(n=34)
5.13027290 Oklahoma_White(n=27)
5.19640260 Colorado_White(n=5)
5.21094041 West_Virginia_White(n=43)
5.45270575 Missouri_White(n=59)
5.62138773 Delaware_White(n=9)
5.73600907 Arizona_White(n=5)
5.80292168 Wyoming_White(n=5)
5.80324047 Nebraska_White(n=24)
5.81477429 Kansas_White(n=20)
6.37687227 Florida_White(n=28)
6.40682449 Washington_White(n=25)
6.71842988 Ohio_White(n=100)
6.92883107 South_Dakota_White(n=6)
6.94771905 Vermont_White(n=5)
7.23435553 California_White(n=60)
7.37229272 Maryland_White(n=37)
7.38918805 Montana_White(n=5)
8.20413310 Minnesota_White(n=27)
8.24361571 Illinois_White(n=107)
8.29684277 Rhode_Island_White(n=14)
8.43828182 Pennsylvania_White(n=179)
8.53986534 Massachusetts_White(n=82)
9.84796933 Wisconsin_White(n=65)
10.34515829 Louisiana_White(n=97)
10.43009108 Michigan_White(n=72)
12.25413808 Connecticut_White(n=29)
12.63513356 New_York_White(n=175)
14.34930312 New_Jersey_White(n=30)
15.07986074 North_Dakota_White(n=10)
16.90182239 New_Mexico_White(n=2)
75.81562306 Inuit(n=6)
78.31547165 Ottawa(n=2)
79.39689855 Chippewa(n=4)
82.09220060 Ojibwe(n=2)
82.82218724 Cree(n=2)
82.83613523 Chipewyan(n=9)
82.97931549 Yellowknives(n=2)
83.80909139 Gwitchin(n=1)
84.32665059 Saulteaux(n=1)
84.56514116 Ponca(n=1)
84.95365030 Shawnee(n=1)
87.20753637 Tulalip(n=1)
87.96461789 Creek(n=2)
88.17415494 Sioux(n=21)
88.24065390 Anishinaabe(n=2)
88.77144811 MHA_Nation(n=6)
89.30573554 Aleut(n=3)
89.43195178 Dene(n=10)
89.70397929 Inupiat(n=4)
89.73094338 Assiniboine(n=1)
90.67463758 Paiute_Shoshone(n=1)
90.98314294 Navajo(n=17)
91.82406221 Hopi(n=6)
91.90448574 Crow(n=1)
93.71841068 Choctaw(n=9)
03-08-2026, 05:38 PM
Peterski

Quote:

Originally Posted by rothaer

Distance to: rothaer
6.34376071 North_Dakota_White(n=10)
8.24706008 Wisconsin_White(n=65)
8.99057840 Michigan_White(n=72)
9.97088261 Minnesota_White(n=27)
11.19770066 Illinois_White(n=107)
12.57333687 Maryland_White(n=37)
12.85830471 Connecticut_White(n=29)
13.38817762 Pennsylvania_White(n=179)
14.06932834 South_Dakota_White(n=6)
14.69721402 Nebraska_White(n=24)
14.83357678 Ohio_White(n=100)
15.25494018 Massachusetts_White(n=82)
15.29827441 New_Hampshire_White(n=14)
15.34464728 Idaho_White(n=12)
15.43820262 Washington_White(n=25)
15.56547140 New_Mexico_White(n=2)
15.73163691 Iowa_White(n=34)
15.74285235 Montana_White(n=5)
15.74392581 California_White(n=60)
15.79685095 Indiana_White(n=57)
15.90328582 Kansas_White(n=20)
15.91179751 Oregon_White(n=18)
16.02346717 New_York_White(n=175)
16.04506778 Florida_White(n=28)
16.40679128 Texas_White(n=97)
16.54101267 Colorado_White(n=5)
16.54215524 Missouri_White(n=59)
16.62416915 South_Carolina_White(n=52)
16.82739730 Tennessee_White(n=95)
16.87766572 New_Jersey_White(n=30)
16.88270713 West_Virginia_White(n=43)
16.88795429 Oklahoma_White(n=27)
16.89659433 Virginia_White(n=87)
16.91953309 Alabama_White(n=73)
16.98880808 Arkansas_White(n=40)
17.14558544 Maine_White(n=30)
17.17490902 Rhode_Island_White(n=14)
17.25072462 Vermont_White(n=5)
17.28406781 Kentucky_White(n=130)
17.30595851 Georgia_White(n=96)
17.42123130 Mississippi_White(n=54)
17.45326044 North_Carolina_White(n=102)
17.50407952 Utah_White(n=29)
18.10617022 Wyoming_White(n=5)
18.19513122 Louisiana_White(n=97)
18.20031044 Delaware_White(n=9)
18.45014092 Arizona_White(n=5)
18.86448515 Utah_White_with_CEU_1KGP(n=90)

All the ones with Slavic admixture on top! :)

I wonder how much of it is from Slavic immigration, and how much from East German immigration?
03-08-2026, 06:23 PM
Highwayman

From ChatGPT:

1. The Core Genetic Profile of the Southern / Appalachian States

Look at states that were closest to you:
• Virginia
• Kentucky
• Tennessee
• West Virginia
• South Carolina
• Missouri

Now look at their closest European groups:

State - Closest ancestry

Virginia - Southwest English
Kentucky - Southwest English
Tennessee - Southwest English
West Virginia - Southwest English
South Carolina - Southwest English
Missouri - Southwest English

Second place in almost every one:
• Southeast English

Third:
• Irish
• West Scottish

This is extremely consistent.

What that means

These states genetically resemble populations from:
• Southwest England
• Southeast England
• with smaller Irish / Scottish influence

That combination is exactly the colonial English + Ulster Scots mix that populated the American frontier.

2. Why Southwest English Shows Up So Strongly

Many Americans assume Appalachian ancestry = Scottish.

But genetically the biggest contributor was actually:

Southwest England

Especially from:

• Devon
• Cornwall
• Somerset
• Dorset

These regions supplied huge numbers of early settlers to:
• Virginia
• Maryland
• North Carolina
• the Chesapeake

Later their descendants moved inland into:
• Kentucky
• Tennessee
• Missouri

Which is precisely the migration corridor your genealogy follows.

3. The Dutch Signal

You’ll notice something interesting in many states:

North_Dutch
South_Dutch

appear frequently in the top 5.

This reflects two historical groups:

1️⃣ New York Dutch colonists

(New Netherland settlers)

2️⃣ German immigrants

who genetically overlap with Dutch populations

This is why Dutch shows up in:
• Pennsylvania
• Ohio
• Midwest states
• California
03-08-2026, 06:25 PM
Highwayman

7. The Most Interesting Outlier: Utah

This one stands out:

Utah
1.62 Irish
1.83 Southeast English
2.00 West Scottish

Utah reflects Mormon pioneer ancestry, which came largely from:
• England
• Scotland
• Ireland

So genetically it resembles British Isles populations directly.
03-08-2026, 08:26 PM
Peterski

I made a map of distance to English (for Utah I used the average without CEU 1KGP samples):

https://i.postimg.cc/2CpgDLNg/Distance-to-English.png

https://i.postimg.cc/2CpgDLNg/Distance-to-English.png
03-08-2026, 09:12 PM
Peterski

^^^
For comparison self-reported English ancestry in the 1980 census:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...and_Canada.png
03-10-2026, 11:16 PM
J. Ketch

Quote:

Originally Posted by Highwayman

They’re probably very Puritan descended in particular.

IMHO it's because Southerners are more German/French/other mixed, and less Irish/Scottish than they proclaim. Utah is also heavily Northern/North Midlands English (plus some Welsh), who have more Insular Celtic blood than the Southern English ancestry that dominates elsewhere in the US.
03-11-2026, 12:01 AM
codex

Target: codex_scaled
Distance: 3.2757% / 0.03275713
48.8 Utah(n=52)
27.8 Georgia(n=50)
22.6 South_Dakota(n=7)
0.8 Arizona(n=5)

Distance to: codex_scaled
0.03416089 Oklahoma(n=27)
0.03444408 Utah(n=52)
0.03478651 Kentucky(n=65)
0.03492214 Georgia(n=50)
0.03508152 South_Carolina(n=52)
0.03519125 Virginia(n=87)
0.03531910 Tennessee(n=47)
0.03532430 Delaware(n=9)
0.03542806 Alabama(n=73)
0.03556299 Colorado(n=5)
0.03558140 North_Carolina(n=74)
0.03559838 Idaho(n=12)
0.03561059 Iowa(n=34)
0.03565765 Arizona(n=5)
0.03579606 West_Wirginia(n=43)
0.03591617 Mississippi(n=22)
0.03598216 Arkansas(n=39)
0.03633632 Washington(n=25)
0.03640180 Missouri(n=25)
0.03641218 Oregon(n=18)
0.03651365 Maine(n=30)
0.03681835 Texas(n=37)
0.03686440 Nebraska(n=24)
0.03710877 Kansas(n=20)
0.03714912 Indiana(n=57)
03-11-2026, 12:02 AM
Peterski

^^^
Codex, you are using old averages. Check the latest version (I added more kits to some averages).
03-11-2026, 01:19 AM
celticdragongod

Quote:

Originally Posted by J. Ketch

IMHO it's because Southerners are more German/French/other mixed, and less Irish/Scottish than they proclaim. Utah is also heavily Northern/North Midlands English (plus some Welsh), who have more Insular Celtic blood than the Southern English ancestry that dominates elsewhere in the US.

Aren't US Southerners largely descended from Lowland Scots who tend to be more closely related to the Northern English than to the Highland Scots?
03-11-2026, 02:58 PM
Highwayman

Quote:

Originally Posted by J. Ketch

IMHO it's because Southerners are more German/French/other mixed, and less Irish/Scottish than they proclaim. Utah is also heavily Northern/North Midlands English (plus some Welsh), who have more Insular Celtic blood than the Southern English ancestry that dominates elsewhere in the US.

For those unfamiliar with the history of Utah: It is 60% Mormon, and was settled by Mormons specifically to be away from the government and everyone else. They only married into their religion, and genealogy for them is not only a passion: they have a history of holding baptisms for their dead ancestors. They’re absolutely a distinct genetic group, without the drift of others such as the Amish.

Their website, Familysearch, is a goldmine of compiled family trees with an impressive number of uploaded documents.
03-11-2026, 07:26 PM
J. Ketch

Quote:

Originally Posted by celticdragongod

Aren't US Southerners largely descended from Lowland Scots who tend to be more closely related to the Northern English than to the Highland Scots?

Well, by reputation they are largely descended from Lowland/Ulster Scots, and by the census they are largely Irish, but when I collected 500+ White Southern gedmatch kits I was surprised by how relatively uncommon genetically Irish/Scottish-like individual results were. Peterski might have noticed the same.
03-11-2026, 08:42 PM
Highwayman

Quote:

Originally Posted by celticdragongod

Aren't US Southerners largely descended from Lowland Scots who tend to be more closely related to the Northern English than to the Highland Scots?

I have a hunch that your common redneck leans much more southern English while hillbillies may have somewhat more northern or Scots-Irish ancestors in their make up.

The most famous hillbillies? Hatfields and McCoys. Hatfield is English.
03-11-2026, 11:13 PM
Birchy

With the simulated G25 cords
Distance to: Birchy
0.02010839 Utah(n=52)
0.02102083 Oklahoma(n=27)
0.02127470 Delaware(n=9)
0.02160490 Arizona(n=5)
0.02165798 Kentucky(n=65)
0.02168503 Colorado(n=5)
0.02214803 Mississippi(n=22)
0.02215954 Arkansas(n=39)
0.02224242 Maine(n=30)
0.02280899 West_Wirginia(n=43)
0.02306406 Iowa(n=34)
0.02307796 Oregon(n=18)
0.02309602 North_Carolina(n=74)
0.02329764 Alabama(n=73)
0.02343921 Virginia(n=49)
0.02348913 South_Carolina(n=52)
0.02355091 Wyoming(n=5)
0.02367086 New_Hampshire(n=14)
0.02369145 Idaho(n=12)
0.02381237 Indiana(n=57)
0.02389586 Tennessee(n=47)
0.02393882 Georgia(n=50)
0.02483483 Nebraska(n=24)
0.02496772 Texas(n=37)
0.02524873 Washington(n=25)
Target: Birchy
Distance: 1.9192% / 0.01919219
67.2 Utah(n=52)
19.8 Arizona(n=5)
13.0 South_Dakota(n=7)
03-11-2026, 11:17 PM
Peterski

Quote:

Originally Posted by Birchy

With the simulated G25 cords
Distance to: Birchy
0.02010839 Utah(n=52)
0.02102083 Oklahoma(n=27)
0.02127470 Delaware(n=9)
0.02160490 Arizona(n=5)
0.02165798 Kentucky(n=65)
0.02168503 Colorado(n=5)
0.02214803 Mississippi(n=22)
0.02215954 Arkansas(n=39)
0.02224242 Maine(n=30)
0.02280899 West_Wirginia(n=43)
0.02306406 Iowa(n=34)
0.02307796 Oregon(n=18)
0.02309602 North_Carolina(n=74)
0.02329764 Alabama(n=73)
0.02343921 Virginia(n=49)
0.02348913 South_Carolina(n=52)
0.02355091 Wyoming(n=5)
0.02367086 New_Hampshire(n=14)
0.02369145 Idaho(n=12)
0.02381237 Indiana(n=57)
0.02389586 Tennessee(n=47)
0.02393882 Georgia(n=50)
0.02483483 Nebraska(n=24)
0.02496772 Texas(n=37)
0.02524873 Washington(n=25)
Target: Birchy
Distance: 1.9192% / 0.01919219
67.2 Utah(n=52)
19.8 Arizona(n=5)
13.0 South_Dakota(n=7)

^^^
Why is everyone using old averages? Updated averages are in the link in the opening post.
03-11-2026, 11:24 PM
Kestrel

G25

Distance to: Kestrel_scaled
0.02438109 Louisiana(n=97)
0.02505491 New_Jersey(n=30)
0.02590542 New_York(n=84)
0.03079882 Massachusetts(n=32)
0.03112976 Rhode_Island(n=14)
0.03158799 Connecticut(n=29)
0.03404184 Pennsylvania(n=82)
0.03405839 California(n=60)
0.03408784 Montana(n=5)
0.03449613 Florida(n=28)
0.03582599 Missouri(n=25)
0.03789708 Vermont(n=5)
0.03799991 Texas(n=37)
0.03810648 Kansas(n=20)
0.03813627 Wyoming(n=5)
0.03872669 Washington(n=25)
0.03916393 Ohio(n=51)
0.03949306 Mississippi(n=22)
0.03949554 Virginia(n=87)
0.03955945 West_Wirginia(n=43)
0.03975415 South_Carolina(n=52)
0.03979743 Maine(n=30)
0.03990121 Tennessee(n=47)
0.04008752 North_Carolina(n=74)
0.04048970 Georgia(n=50)

Target: Kestrel_scaled
Distance: 2.3259% / 0.02325949
56.0 Louisiana(n=97)
44.0 New_Jersey(n=30)

lol I figured i'd get Louisiana.
03-11-2026, 11:55 PM
celticdragongod

Quote:

Originally Posted by Highwayman

I have a hunch that your common redneck leans much more southern English while hillbillies may have somewhat more northern or Scots-Irish ancestors in their make up.

The most famous hillbillies? Hatfields and McCoys. Hatfield is English.

True. The so-called "Scots-Irish" are mostly descended from Lowland Scots so they would be closely related to Northern English people. But are the "rednecks" more closely related to the southeastern English - who are mostly Anglo-Saxon - or the southwestern English who are largely Insular Celtic?
03-11-2026, 11:59 PM
celticdragongod

Quote:

Originally Posted by J. Ketch

Well, by reputation they are largely descended from Lowland/Ulster Scots, and by the census they are largely Irish, but when I collected 500+ White Southern gedmatch kits I was surprised by how relatively uncommon genetically Irish/Scottish-like individual results were. Peterski might have noticed the same.

Technically, to be Irish, you just have to be born in Ireland or descended from someone who was born in Ireland. It doesn't necessarily mean that they are Gaelic or Insular Celtic. It is the Highland Scots who are the Gaelic/Insular Celtic ones, not the Lowlanders who would be more Germanic.
03-12-2026, 12:07 AM
Birchy

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peterski

^^^
Why is everyone using old averages? Updated averages are in the link in the opening post.

Distance to: Birchy
4.43478297 Oregon_White(n=18)
4.47543294 North_Carolina_White(n=103)
4.48457356 Alabama_White(n=74)
4.65656526 New_Hampshire_White(n=14)
4.78174654 Kansas_White(n=20)
4.86755585 Mississippi_White(n=54)
4.98936870 Utah_White_with_CEU_1KGP(n=90)
5.03064608 Georgia_White(n=96)
5.07767663 Texas_White(n=97)
5.10718122 Maine_White(n=30)
5.17727728 Montana_White(n=5)
5.19627751 Virginia_White(n=87)
5.26258492 Florida_White(n=28)
5.28533821 South_Carolina_White(n=52)
5.31527045 Missouri_White(n=59)
5.39958332 Tennessee_White(n=95)
5.43637747 Wyoming_White(n=5)
5.47774589 Indiana_White(n=57)
5.48621910 Oklahoma_White(n=27)
5.51205951 Idaho_White(n=12)
5.51632124 West_Virginia_White(n=43)
5.63553014 Kentucky_White(n=130)
5.71870615 California_White(n=60)
5.96216404 Utah_White(n=29)
6.12021241 Arkansas_White(n=40)
Target: Birchy
Distance: 189.9417% / 1.89941665
79.0 Utah_White_with_CEU_1KGP(n=90)
16.2 Gasconian(n=55)
4.8 Latvia_BA(n=10)

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