50% replacement in MLBA Britain

[Token]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoGmPJJS3X8 at 1:03:00:

[Grace O'Malley]

He said in "Southern Britain not in Northern Britain so not in Scotland that must reflect we think about a 50% population replacement and then of course there's Saxon movements".

So what population could have caused this? Anyway that is really interesting and it will be interesting if he published more on this.

[Token]

That was the final blow to the Celtic British Beakers hypothesis.

[J. Ketch]

Great.

Mid Bronze Age would be surprisingly early, but that level of replacement doesn't surprise me. I was never convinced by the idea that the Celtic influence in Britain was minor.

Now that we know the replacement rate, should be able to calculate the approximate genetic profile of the invading Celts just in G25, based on Early Bronze Age vs Iron Age/Roman British.

Target: England_CA_EBA
Distance: 3.1945% / 0.03194460
53.6	Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
31.0	TUR_Barcin_N
15.4	WHG

Target: England_MBA
Distance: 3.7488% / 0.03748788
51.6	Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
32.6	TUR_Barcin_N
15.8	WHG

Target: England_IA
Distance: 3.8860% / 0.03886000
49.6	Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
36.6	TUR_Barcin_N
13.8	WHG

Target: England_Roman
Distance: 4.1337% / 0.04133724
48.6	Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
36.8	TUR_Barcin_N
14.6	WHG

So probably something like:

45-46% Steppe
40-41% Farmer
12-13% WHG

[Token]

So what population could have caused this?

The forefathers of Insular Celts clearly.

[Lucas]

The forefathers of Insular Celts clearly.

I wonder what level of replacement will be for Iron Age (some Belgae are said to migrate there), Roman Age and Saxon invasion.

[Graham]

Urnfield culture from the continent then.

[Petalpusher]

That likely happened in a lot of places. First the original steppe dispersing directly in countries, then some already settled in Europe acquiring more pre BA ancestry with time, replacing in part the original waves. Lots of turnover, still essentially a process of stabilizing BA and farmers ancestry.

[J. Ketch]

I wonder what level of replacement will be for Iron Age (some Belgae are said to migrate there), Roman Age and Saxon invasion.

Good point about the Belgae, so the Southern Britons would have been mostly derived from Continental Celts by the time the Romans met them. It's no wonder then that the Romans made the distinction between the 'Maritime' Southern Britons, who were largely the same as Northern Gauls, and the more native 'Interior' Britons, who sound like they kept up an almost Bronze Age lifestyle by comparison.

[J. Ketch]

Good point about the Belgae, so the Southern Britons would have been mostly derived from Continental Celts by the time the Romans met them. It's no wonder then that the Romans made the distinction between the 'Maritime' Southern Britons, who were largely the same as Northern Gauls, and the more native 'Interior' Britons, who sound like they kept up an almost Bronze Age lifestyle by comparison.

Just to illustrate this, a map made by Mitchellsince1890 on Anthrogenica, of Hallstatt A & B sites, likely representing areas with the greatest early Continental Celtic settlement in Britain. Southern England then had another known influx in the Iron Age from Belgae.