Who, genetically, are the least Slavic of the Slavs?

[Jana]

Serbs pre-Slavic is modeled with both Illyrians and Thracians and that should be realistic and in line with their position in Balkans.

Target: Serbian
Distance: 1.2317% / 0.01231690

32.0 (Balto-)SlavicEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA_KRA009
28.0 Balkan:BGR_IA_I5769
14.4 Balkan:HRV_IA_I3313
13.4 (Balto-)SlavicEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA_KRA011
8.4 Balkan:HUN_MA_Szolad_SZ43
3.4 (Balto-)Slavic:HUN_Avar_Szolad_Av2
0.4 (Balto-)Slavic:Moravia_POH13

with Montenegrins I removed Thracians, as they have no such blood. Slavic goes down to around 40% and fit is still exceptional.

Target: Montenegrin
Distance: 1.4128% / 0.01412840

35.0 Balkan:HUN_MA_Szolad_SZ43
24.4 (Balto-)SlavicEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA_KRA009
23.8 Balkan:HRV_IA_I3313
15.4 (Balto-)SlavicEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA_KRA001
1.4 (Balto-)Slavic:HUN_Avar_Szolad_Av2

aggregated

Target: Montenegrin
Distance: 1.4128% / 0.01412840

58.8 Balkan
41.2 (Balto-)Slavic

Target: Serbian
Distance: 1.5453% / 0.01545250

58.2 Balkan
41.8 (Balto-)Slavic

Serb G25 average is heavily Montenenigga shifted so Bosnian and Croatian, and even many Serbian Serbs will be more Slavic than that, up to half and above half.
But old models where some ppl get like 70% "Slavic" etc look to be completely off.

This figures I get are in line with models of that unreleased Reich paper. If there were Dalmatian Croats on G25, they'd probably model little bit above 50% Slav just like in the paper.
Croatian average on G25 from Zagreb isn't of much use in this because it's filled with heavily German admixed samples.

[Jana]

I guess Macedonians. Or Pomaks; The latter could maybe get under the proto Slav level of Macedonians if they additionally assimilated some Anatolian Turks.



I agree.

If you have G25 coords I'd be curious about the result in the calculator in my signature. I regard that calculator good, especially also the tranparency where the single ancient source samples are visible.

Here's a pic I made some time ago for a number of ethnicities out of that mentioned calculator. Here Bulgarians do have the lowest level (38.2%) among Slavic speakers. Unfortunately Macedonians are not contained in the table.

I must fix that calc. Roman samples should be removed and Sunghir6 for Slavic also, that sample does not plot like other early Slavs. He even has some Siberian and is more southern than them.

[Jana]

I realized making calculators with "one size fits all" is a failure. Slovenians require different pre-Slavic samples than Bulgarians do, so if I put both in same calc results can get skewed.
And better fit can often be misleading.

It's best to make personalized models for every ethnicity in line with their known ethnogenesis when selecting applicable samples.
For example with Thracian added in I get more Slavic than without and tighter fit, but that is obviously misleading because Thracians took no part in ethnogenesis of Croats. etc.

[Jana]

EDIT: It seems not to be Macedonians as they seem to have more than Bulgarians:

Target: Macedonian
Distance: 0.7305% / 0.00730540
46.4 (Balto-)Slavic
37.0 Graeco-Roman
16.6 Balkan

It's from capital Skopje and there are some samples mixed with Serbs and Bosniaks (and even Croats I heard), hence more northern. David's G25 modern averages for south Slavs are very poor and unfiltered academics. Since he has no interest in south Slavs he never bothered to fix or improve them like some others. His modern averages are shitty in general.

[Leto]

Oh boy, this fucking saga never ends

[rothaer]

I must fix that calc. Roman samples should be removed and Sunghir6 for Slavic also, that sample does not plot like other early Slavs. He even has some Siberian and is more southern than them.

It doesn't change much if Sunghir6 is removed. But on the north Europe PCA Sunghir6 (marked) plots inconspicious among the other reference samples imo.

[vbnetkhio]

I guess Macedonians or Bulgarians or Pomaks; The latter could maybe get under the proto Slav level of Macedonians if they additionally assimilated some Anatolian Turks.



I agree.

If you have G25 coords I'd be curious about the result in the calculator in my signature. I regard that calculator good, especially also the tranparency where the single ancient source samples are visible.

Here's a pic I made some time ago for a number of ethnicities out of that mentioned calculator. Here Bulgarians do have the lowest level (38.2%) among Slavic speakers. Unfortunately Macedonians are not contained in the table.

I don't have them, but this one is the most similar to me (on gedmatch) so you can try it.

Serbian:725,0.130897,0.135065,0.043369,0.01615,0.024312,0.005578,0.015041,0.010153,-0.000818,-0.005285,0.001624,0.001499,0.000892,0.019267,-0.021444,0.007955,0.010822,0.009755,0.001131,-0.003752,-0.016221,-0.00371,0.003204,-0.009399,-0.010059

EDIT: It seems not to be Macedonians as they seem to have more than Bulgarians:

Target: Macedonian
Distance: 0.7305% / 0.00730540
46.4 (Balto-)Slavic
37.0 Graeco-Roman
16.6 Balkan

The official average includes only 5 samples of which one is an outlier . Try out this average of 24 samples:

Macedonia,0.124778625,0.142343416666667,0.024622833333333,-0.004643125,0.026325375,-0.000697291666667,0.0031725,0.001355625,0.000698708333333,0.009590125,0.000264,0.001036541666667,-0.001201666666667,0.008458125,-0.015195041666667,-0.002662916666667,0.006399708333333,0.000258625,0.004718916666667,-0.004731375,-0.008635833333333,7.2125E-05,0.002932291666667,-5.12499999999992E-06,-0.001322166666667

The Bulgarian average also includes only 5 samples, so it could be misleading.

[Jana]

It doesn't change much if Sunghir6 is removed. But on the north Europe PCA Sunghir6 (marked) plots inconspicious among the other reference samples imo.

Maybe but these other all get Lithuanians and Belarusians in modern Oracles first, Sunhgir gets Ukrainians and south Russians iirc (did not check)
And on K13 Sunghir visibly more southern than them plus some Siberian too.

[Jana]

Sunghir doesn't look that pure compared to other ancient Slavs I posted IMHO, who all fall on Lithuanian-Belorussian cline.

Distance to: (Balto-)Slavic:RUS_Sunghir_MA_Sunghir6

0.01733881 Russian_Orel
0.01833350 Ukrainian
0.01925938 Russian_Voronez
0.02011280 Russian_Kursk
0.02026939 Russian_Belgorod
0.02107801 Russian_Smolensk
0.02129694 Cossack_Ukrainian
0.02137321 Belarusian
0.02247498 Russian_Ryazan
0.02253362 Polish
0.02533379 Russian_Kaluga
0.02607523 Russian_Tver
0.02858635 Lithuanian_PA
0.02990697 Russian_Pskov
0.03093027 Sorb_Niederlausitz
0.03176859 Moldovan_o
0.03252521 Russian_Yaroslavl
0.03284131 Lithuanian_VA
0.03495268 Polish_Kashubian
0.03633967 Slovakian
0.03749295 Lithuanian_RA
0.03883709 Lithuanian_VZ
0.03976665 Czech
0.04059059 Nordva_Moksha
0.04071447 Estonian

[Ajeje Brazorf]

I think the Slavic ancestry of Balkanians is Polish-like.

Distance to:	AV1_Hungary_Avar_1361_ybp
2.51037846	Ukrainian_Galicia
3.35052235	South_Polish
3.92331492	Polish_Silesia
4.01662794	Polish_Southeast
4.34316705	Moldova_Ukrainian

Distance to:	AV2_Hungary_Szolad_540_640_AD_540_640_AD_
1.75171345	Polish_Kuyavia
2.86347691	Polish
3.05216317	Polish_Kujawy
3.74654508	Polish_Mazovia
3.98610085	Polish_Mazovia

Global25

Target: Croatian
Distance: 0.0049% / 0.00492042 | R2P
70.4	Polish
29.6	Italian_Umbria

Target: Serbian
Distance: 0.0132% / 0.01321084 | R2P
68.5	Ukrainian_Lviv
31.5	Greek_Kos

Target: Serbian
Distance: 0.0080% / 0.00799395 | R3P
42.5	Lithuanian_RA
32.6	Italian_Lombardy
24.9	Greek_Kos

Eurogenes K13

Target: Croat
Distance: 0.4453% / 0.44529358 | R3P
40.2	Polish_Mazovia
33.5	Italian_Marche
26.3	Polish_Lesser_Poland

Target: Croat_East
Distance: 0.8081% / 0.80807037 | R3P
41.8	Polish_Lesser_Poland
32.1	Polish_Southeast
26.1	Greek_Cyclades

Target: Croat_North
Distance: 0.3585% / 0.35851164 | R3P
60.9	Polish_Mazovia
20.5	Italian_Marche
18.6	French_Alsace

Target: Croat_South
Distance: 0.5159% / 0.51585104 | R3P
56.8	Polish_Mazovia
24.0	Italian_Veneto
19.2	Greek_Crete

Target: Croat_West
Distance: 0.5427% / 0.54269622 | R3P
53.8	Polish_Staropolska
37.3	Italian_Trentino
8.9	Greek_Trabzon

Target: Serb
Distance: 0.7919% / 0.79194004 | R3P
62.5	South_Polish
29.3	Greek_Crete
8.2	Italian_Sardinia

Target: Serb_Bosnia
Distance: 0.9707% / 0.97069809 | R3P
66.4	Polish_Silesia
27.7	Greek_Crete
5.9	Italian_Sardinia

Target: Serb_Croatia
Distance: 0.7934% / 0.79338749 | R3P
50.5	Belarusian_Minsk
32.6	Italian_Lombardy
16.9	Greek_Cappadocian

Target: Serb_Herzegovina
Distance: 0.6890% / 0.68900115 | R3P
57.2	Polish_Lesser_Poland
34.5	Greek_Crete
8.3	Italian_Sardinia

Target: Serb_Serbia_Central
Distance: 0.8899% / 0.88993271 | R3P
43.5	Belarusian_Minsk
28.8	Greek_Crete
27.7	Italian_Trentino

Target: Serb_Serbia_South
Distance: 0.6107% / 0.61066313 | R3P
47.3	Belarusian_Minsk
31.3	Greek_Chios
21.4	Italian_Lombardy

Target: Serb_Serbia_Vojvodina
Distance: 0.8595% / 0.85949676 | R3P
60.7	South_Polish
30.6	Greek_Crete
8.7	Italian_Sardinia

Target: Serb_Serbia_West
Distance: 0.8380% / 0.83800140 | R3P
65.3	South_Polish
24.4	Greek_Chios
10.3	Italian_Sardinia

Target: Serb_Southern_Montenegro
Distance: 0.8541% / 0.85412427 | R3P
49.3	Polish_Silesia
46.2	Italian_Apulia
4.5	Italian_Sardinia