Large-Scale Migration into Southern Britain During the Middle to Late Bronze Age

[Peterski]

Distance to:	Channel_Islands_IA
0.02909786	French_Brittany
0.02973195	French_Pas-de-Calais
0.03028545	French_Nord
0.03059148	Belgian
0.03085691	Welsh

This strongly suggests that ancient Armoricans were similar to this Channel_Islands_IA population.

[gixajo]

Target: gixajo_scaled
Distance: 2.1622% / 0.02162232
42.2 Spain
40.2 Croatia
13.2 Channel_Islands
4.4 Austria

Target: gixajo_dad_scaled
Distance: 3.0620% / 0.03062036
62.4 Croatia
37.6 Spain

Target: gixajo_mom_scaled
Distance: 2.5483% / 0.02548312
36.4 Spain
33.6 Austria
30.0 France

[gixajo]

[code]

This strongly suggests that ancient Armoricans were similar to this Channel_Islands_IA population.

I would not draw conclusions about these references until they are cleaned of possible outliers and low quality samples.

[Ajeje Brazorf]

Distance to:	Channel_Islands_IA
0.02909786	French_Brittany
0.02973195	French_Pas-de-Calais
0.03028545	French_Nord
0.03059148	Belgian
0.03085691	Welsh

This strongly suggests that ancient Armoricans were similar to this Channel_Islands_IA population.

They cluster very close on PCA, but when 2 averages have a fit of over 0.02 that's too much in my opinion.

Spoiler!

[J. Ketch]

What modern Bretons score:

Target: French_Brittany
Distance: 0.8513% / 0.00851279
69.0 England_IA
10.4 Austria_IA
10.2 Scotland_IA
6.6 Croatia_IA
3.4 DEU_MA_Baiuvaric
0.4 ITA_Rome_Latini_IA

Target: French_Brittany
Distance: 0.8544% / 0.00854352 | ADC: 0.25x RC
79.0 England_IA
8.0 Austria_IA
7.0 Croatia_IA
6.0 DEU_MA_Baiuvaric

80% Iron Age British! And no Channel Island or France IA. Make of it what you will.

[Peterski]

What modern Bretons score:

Target: French_Brittany
Distance: 0.8513% / 0.00851279
69.0 England_IA
10.4 Austria_IA
10.2 Scotland_IA
6.6 Croatia_IA
3.4 DEU_MA_Baiuvaric
0.4 ITA_Rome_Latini_IA

Target: French_Brittany
Distance: 0.8544% / 0.00854352 | ADC: 0.25x RC
79.0 England_IA
8.0 Austria_IA
7.0 Croatia_IA
6.0 DEU_MA_Baiuvaric

80% Iron Age British! And no Channel Island or France IA. Make of it what you will.

What will happen if you remove England_IA and run again?

[J. Ketch]

What will happen if you remove England_IA and run again?

Goes down a bit but still over 50% with a good fit.

Target: French_Brittany
Distance: 0.9351% / 0.00935097
54.6 Scotland_IA
12.6 Austria_IA
8.4 Channel_Islands_IA
6.8 ITA_Rome_Latini_IA
4.4 Croatia_IA
4.4 DEU_MA_Baiuvaric
4.2 Wales_IA
3.2 Netherlands_IA
1.4 Spain_IA

Target: French_Brittany
Distance: 0.9803% / 0.00980297 | ADC: 0.25x RC
55.8 Scotland_IA
17.2 Croatia_IA
10.0 Channel_Islands_IA
8.8 France_IA
8.2 Czech_IA

Pretty dubious about G25 in calculating ancestry for NW Europeans though.

[J. Ketch]

The paper says there was 50% replacement for both England and Wales, but this only seems to be true for the Iron Age samples from South Wales (i.e the land of the Silures). The North Wales IA sample (I16475) has a pre-Celtic genetic profile, so the Wales IA average posted here looks a lot more Northern than the England IA average. The North and South Wales IA samples should therefore be split.

[J. Ketch]

Just thinking aloud. Why did the Romans single out the Silures of South Wales as being swarthy and Gallic/Iberian looking? We know that they were no more Southern shifted than other Southern Britons. It's evident that the physical difference between them and the Caledonians the Romans contrasted them with is from their Celtic influence. But were the other Southern Britons lighter because they were Belgic tribes who came in the Iron Age as attested? The Belgae could have been Germanic mixed already.

Belgic tribes:



The contention of the paper is that there was no major genetic influx in Britain in the Iron Age, but that's only based on levels of EEF not changing significantly. The Belgae might have been similarly northern as Iron Age Britons, so an influx would be undetected that way. And it was still in the folkloric memory in the 1st Century BC that the people of 'maritime' Southern Britain were relative newcomers, 'Interior' Britons considered themselves the natives. Much more likely to be referring to a major movement that occurred a few centuries before (Belgic) than the first onset of Celts into Britain, around 1000 years earlier, which apparently affected nearly all of England anyway. A major Belgae invasion would also coincide with the appearance of La Tene art/technology in Southern England.

[Flashball]

Comparison between native modern French samples (from my private collection, I only include in my "French sample" collection only native over several generations, genealogically speaking) and Iron Age French samples



To differentiate the modern samples from others, I surrounded them in black, in addition to drawing in red the French cluster.



The results of the IA French and the modern French with prehistoric populations

IA French



Modern



Now if I integrate the first samples into the second





Now modern French samples compared with all samples from this link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VFr...WU4TIppjB/view
(The cluster is drawn in red and modern French samples are circled in black)