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Thread: Large-Scale Migration into Southern Britain During the Middle to Late Bronze Age

  1. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomenable View Post
    When using my K36 averages (they include also British kit that you gave me) and modeling English Midlands as a mix of Welsh + Germanic (NW Germans and Danes), I'm getting only around 25% Germanic (but maybe that's because modern Welsh also have some Germanic input):

    [don't pay attention to distances, they seem high because it is K36]





    Also East Midlands appears to be slightly more Germanic than West Midlands - which makes sense.
    Modern Welsh are Anglo-Saxon/Germanic admixed, the Schiffels study on Anglo-Saxons (which was pretty limited) even had them at 30% 'Anglo-Saxon' admixture vs Iron Age British. The sub-Roman Britons in much of Wales were also likely different to the Sub-Roman Britons in Southern & Central England, with less Celtic and/or Roman influence, and there maybe more later Norman influence in England. So it's right that English are not that much more Germanic than Welsh or Scots, the mistake is in thinking they adequately represent Celtic Britons though.




    This is a model with modern populations as proxies for ancient components, with a focus on Germanic influence. I think it's alright.

    Quote Originally Posted by Creoda View Post
    I made this model from K13 modern population averages yesterday, nowhere near conclusive but maybe a decent guide for the distances under 1.

    Germanic = Norwegian
    Gaulish = French
    Slavic = Belarussian
    Insular Celtic = Ulster Irish
    Balkanic = Vlach
    Baltic = Latvian
    Finnic = Finnish
    Roman = Italian
    Code:
    Target: English
    Distance: 0.6694% / 0.66943464 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    40.9 Germanic
    35.6 Insular_Celtic
    20.9 Gaulish
    2.6 Roman
    
    Target: English_Southeast
    Distance: 0.7220% / 0.72200387 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    44.6 Germanic
    30.2 Insular_Celtic
    19.7 Gaulish
    5.5 Roman
    
    Target: English_North
    Distance: 0.6889% / 0.68887677 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    43.1 Germanic
    36.8 Insular_Celtic
    20.1 Gaulish
    
    Target: English_Southwest
    Distance: 0.5590% / 0.55900465 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    38.4 Insular_Celtic
    35.4 Germanic
    26.2 Gaulish
    
    Target: English_Midlands
    Distance: 0.7630% / 0.76295251 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    41.5 Germanic
    34.0 Insular_Celtic
    21.9 Gaulish
    2.6 Roman
    
    Target: Welsh
    Distance: 0.4281% / 0.42813953 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    55.6	Insular_Celtic
    26.3	Germanic
    17.5	Gaulish
    0.6	Balkanic
    
    Target: Scottish
    Distance: 0.3907% / 0.39065617 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    73.4	Insular_Celtic
    21.4	Germanic
    5.1	Roman
    0.1	Gaulish
    
    Target: Scottish_Northeast
    Distance: 0.4289% / 0.42885593 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    54.3 Insular_Celtic
    33.0 Germanic
    12.7 Gaulish
    
    Target: Scottish_East
    Distance: 0.4770% / 0.47699409 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    64.8 Insular_Celtic
    24.8 Germanic
    7.3 Gaulish
    3.1 Roman
    
    Target: Swiss_German
    Distance: 0.6263% / 0.62630357 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    39.5 Gaulish
    34.1 Germanic
    25.7 Balkanic
    0.7 Slavic
    
    Target: Austrian
    Distance: 1.5112% / 1.51123941 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    30.7 Germanic
    26.1 Slavic
    21.7 Gaulish
    21.5 Balkanic
    
    Target: French_Alsace
    Distance: 0.4318% / 0.43181889 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    38.0 Gaulish
    36.6 Germanic
    23.0 Balkanic
    2.4 Slavic
    
    Target: Flemish
    Distance: 1.0315% / 1.03153520 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    44.2 Germanic
    33.9 Gaulish
    11.4 Insular_Celtic
    10.5 Balkanic
    
    Target: German_West
    Distance: 0.6209% / 0.62087689 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    42.8 Germanic
    22.7 Insular_Celtic
    21.1 Balkanic
    13.4 Gaulish
    
    Target: German_South
    Distance: 0.7247% / 0.72466656 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    41.9 Germanic
    35.8 Gaulish
    21.4 Balkanic
    0.9 Slavic
    
    Target: German_East
    Distance: 1.7735% / 1.77354054 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    45.8 Slavic
    29.3 Gaulish
    20.3 Germanic
    4.6 Balkanic
    
    Target: Dutch_South
    Distance: 0.8818% / 0.88183135 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    54.3 Germanic
    39.9 Gaulish
    4.8 Balkanic
    1.0 Slavic
    
    Target: Icelandic
    Distance: 0.7233% / 0.72334122 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    71.5 Germanic
    27.3 Insular_Celtic
    1.2 Balkanic
    
    Target: Pennsylvania_Dutch
    Distance: 1.2828% / 1.28281729 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    50.1 Gaulish
    32.9 Germanic
    17.0 Balkanic
    
    Target: Afrikaner
    Distance: 2.2704% / 2.27039093 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    55.1 Germanic
    32.4 Gaulish
    10.0 Balkanic
    2.5 SSA
    
    Target: Swedish
    Distance: 1.9828% / 1.98275353 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    82.2 Germanic
    7.1 Finnic
    6.7 Slavic
    4.0 Gaulish
    
    Target: Sweden_Götaland
    Distance: 1.0973% / 1.09727988 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    94.7 Germanic
    4.0 Finnic
    1.3 Gaulish
    
    Target: Norway_South_Central
    Distance: 1.1253% / 1.12531456 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    97.7 Germanic
    2.3 Finnic
    
    Target: Denmark
    Distance: 0.8947% / 0.89474045 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    95.2 Germanic
    2.9 Gaulish
    1.9 Slavic
    
    Target: German_Northwest
    Distance: 1.1089% / 1.10885914 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    80.4 Germanic
    12.5 Gaulish
    4.9 Balkanic
    2.2 Slavic
    
    Target: German
    Distance: 0.6296% / 0.62956218 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    51.0 Germanic
    25.3 Gaulish
    12.6 Slavic
    11.1 Balkanic
    
    Target: Dutch_North
    Distance: 1.4412% / 1.44124984 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    81.7 Germanic
    8.5 Insular_Celtic
    7.1 Gaulish
    2.7 Roman
    
    Target: Dutch_Central
    Distance: 1.5821% / 1.58210411 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    72.9 Germanic
    12.7 Gaulish
    10.6 Insular_Celtic
    3.8 Roman
    
    Target: Dutch
    Distance: 1.2357% / 1.23570379 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    71.3 Germanic
    15.5 Gaulish
    8.9 Insular_Celtic
    4.3 Roman
    
    Target: Sweden_Svealand_West
    Distance: 1.4748% / 1.47483390 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    90.2 Germanic
    9.8 Finnic
    
    Target: Sweden_Svealand_East
    Distance: 1.1592% / 1.15918307 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    75.1 Germanic
    18.9 Finnic
    6.0 Baltic

  2. #132
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    Instead of modelling against Welsh, a quick model of the updated English averages vs the old SW English average, which I think is academic Cornish samples, plus old Germanic and French averages.

    Code:
    Danish,50.04,26.61,10.43,5.69,3.61,0.25,1.86,0.20,0.27,0.36,0.20,0.36,0.10
    Danish_new,50.61,28.70,10.19,5.00,2.12,0.52,0.99,0.19,0.42,0.59,0.23,0.12,0.17
    Southwest_English,51.98,22.10,15.10,4.92,2.70,0.95,0.88,0.12,0.05,0.15,0.59,0.28,0.16
    Southwest_French,42.35,13.57,30.54,1.36,8.85,1.65,0.33,0.05,0.62,0.64,0.01,0.02,0.00
    French,42.60,17.48,19.50,4.96,10.33,2.82,1.08,0.15,0.27,0.38,0.23,0.07,0.12
    North_German,47.17,27.37,10.33,7.12,4.24,0.91,1.46,0.04,0.12,0.43,0.28,0.37,0.17
    North_Italian,31.68,11.93,25.76,6.90,19.58,2.78,0.56,0.34,0.13,0.05,0.21,0.04,0.03
    Code:
    Target: English
    Distance: 0.6873% / 0.68733264
    48.9	Southwest_English
    29.5	North_German
    15.3	Danish
    6.3	Southwest_French
    
    Target: English_Midlands
    Distance: 0.6748% / 0.67483667
    44.9	Southwest_English
    27.4	North_German
    20.1	Danish
    7.6	Southwest_French
    
    Target: English_North
    Distance: 0.5031% / 0.50311339
    57.0	Southwest_English
    22.1	North_German
    19.6	Danish
    1.3	Southwest_French
    
    Target: English_Southeast
    Distance: 0.9342% / 0.93418359
    36.3	North_German
    35.3	Southwest_English
    17.9	Danish
    10.5	Southwest_French
    Replacing North German with French
    Code:
    Target: English_Midlands
    Distance: 0.6507% / 0.65065241
    47.4	Danish
    38.2	Southwest_English
    12.3	French
    2.1	Southwest_French
    
    Target: English_North
    Distance: 0.6368% / 0.63680324
    48.5	Southwest_English
    45.9	Danish
    5.6	French
    
    Target: English_Southeast
    Distance: 0.6701% / 0.67011052
    50.0	Danish
    29.5	Southwest_English
    20.3	French
    0.2	Southwest_French
    
    Target: English_Southwest
    Distance: 0.7471% / 0.74714250
    48.6	Southwest_English
    39.8	Danish
    7.7	French
    3.9	Southwest_French
    Replacing the old Danish average with the more Northern updated one

    Code:
    Target: English
    Distance: 0.9565% / 0.95652951
    43.3	Southwest_English
    38.2	Danish
    18.5	French
    
    Target: English_Midlands
    Distance: 0.9866% / 0.98664880
    42.1	Southwest_English
    38.3	Danish
    19.6	French
    
    Target: English_North
    Distance: 0.9022% / 0.90215668
    49.4	Southwest_English
    39.9	Danish
    10.7	French
    
    Target: English_Southeast
    Distance: 1.0205% / 1.02054836
    43.0	Danish
    31.0	Southwest_English
    26.0	French
    
    Target: English_Southwest
    Distance: 0.8572% / 0.85717840
    53.7	Southwest_English
    30.1	Danish
    16.2	French
    With North Italian in the mix

    Code:
    Target: English
    Distance: 0.8365% / 0.83651601
    52.1	Southwest_English
    39.2	Danish
    8.7	North_Italian
    
    Target: English_Midlands
    Distance: 0.8195% / 0.81947455
    51.5	Southwest_English
    39.3	Danish
    9.2	North_Italian
    
    Target: English_North
    Distance: 0.8493% / 0.84931417
    54.4	Southwest_English
    40.5	Danish
    5.1	North_Italian
    
    Target: English_Southeast
    Distance: 0.8692% / 0.86918582
    44.2	Danish
    43.7	Southwest_English
    12.1	North_Italian
    
    Target: English_Southwest
    Distance: 0.8572% / 0.85717840
    53.7	Southwest_English
    30.1	Danish
    16.2	French
    Last edited by J. Ketch; 12-30-2021 at 10:02 PM.

  3. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by Creoda View Post
    Instead of modelling against Welsh, a quick model of the updated English averages vs the old SW English average, which I think is academic Cornish samples, plus Germanic and French averages.
    Do you have any data on Southwest Scotland (not just Southern Scotland)? It's the red headed stepchild of population studies.

  4. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anglo-Celtic View Post
    Do you have any data on Southwest Scotland (not just Southern Scotland)? It's the red headed stepchild of population studies.
    Luckily Graham made a good Southwest Scottish average. Versus my earlier model:

    Target: Scottish_Southwest
    Distance: 0.5820% / 0.58202890 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    72.2 Insular_Celtic
    21.6 Germanic
    3.3 Roman
    2.9 Gaulish

    If you look at the academic chart I posted above, it fits alright with the estimate for Scotland.

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    Well I don't believe that the modern Welsh are 30% Germanic.

    It doesn't make sense, Wales was isolated from England.

    When we get more of Sub-Roman British DNA samples it will be clarified.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Anglo-Celtic View Post
    Do you have any data on Southwest Scotland (not just Southern Scotland)? It's the red headed stepchild of population studies.
    The region in question housed the last Britonnic kingdom outside Wales, Strathclyde/Alt Clut, so that must be further indication about that trait being a chief one among island Celts.
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  7. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomenable View Post
    Well I don't believe that the modern Welsh are 30% Germanic.

    It doesn't make sense, Wales was isolated from England.

    When we get more of Sub-Roman British DNA samples it will be clarified.
    Neither me, the figure in my calc and the Viking paper says about 26% rather.

    It's probably more that Welsh are mixed with English, not so much 'Anglo-Saxons'/Germanics directly. Wales has been part of the Kingdom of England for over 700 years. Edward I built a Ring of Iron of fortified towns around Wales and settled them with English, and some of South Wales had been re-settled even before that I think, and in more modern Industrial times you have more English migration there, why so many Welsh have English surnames. Monmouthshire was nominally considered an English county until the 19th/20th century.
    Last edited by J. Ketch; 12-31-2021 at 05:45 PM.

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    About Flemish settlement in Wales (and England, Scotland):

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/legacies/immig...ed%20to%20move.

    The Flemish colonists in Wales

    Little England beyond Wales

    The story behind this curious name for south Pembrokeshire involves ravished lands, economic migrants and mercenaries. This part of South Wales has seen many invaders come and go, Romans, Vikings and Normans, to name but a few. The Flemish people who arrived in the 12th Century, after the Norman Conquest, made a lasting and unique impression, still present today in the geographical divide across the county between the English and Welsh language.

    On the Flemings
    ‘The inhabitants of this province derived their origin from Flanders, and were sent by King Henry I to inhabit these districts; a people brave and robust, ever most hostile to the Welsh; a people, I say, well versed in commerce and woollen manufactories; a people anxious to seek gain by sea or land, in defiance of fatigue and danger; a hardy race, equally fitted for the plough or the sword; a people brave and happy’. Geraldus Cambrensis, Itinerary Through Wales, 1188

    One of the first arrivals of the Flemish to the British Isles was at the time of the Norman Conquest in 1066. In the 11th Century, Flanders was becoming perilously overpopulated and the Flemish, in the area now known as Belgium, were forced to move. Many moved to Germany, while others joined the Norman army, becoming an important element in their forces. The Norman kings rewarded those who fought with land in the conquered countries, giving them territory to live on, on the proviso that they defended it on behalf on the Norman invaders.

    Before the Norman Invasion, Wales was subject to much infighting and was in no position to defend itself with a united front. William I installed his earls along the Welsh border at Chester, Shrewsbury and Hereford, and they soon made progress into Wales. The Earl of Shrewsbury took his forces southwest, through Powys and Ceredigion, to Dyfed, where they established a castle at Pembroke.

    Asylum Seekers

    Flanders suffered greatly after a series of storms, in 1106. Samuel Lewis wrote, "During a tremendous storm on the coast of Flanders, the sand hills and embankments were in many places carried away, and the sea inundated a large tract of country."

    This led a large number of Flemings to seek asylum in England, where they were welcomed by Henry I. They settled in various colonies across England, but soon, Samuel Lewis wrote, they "became odious to the native population", and Henry I moved the Flemings to the remote farming settlement in the cantref, a district of Rhôs, in south Pembrokeshire.

    This systematic planting of Flemish settlers by Henry I, and later Henry II, had significant consequences for the people of south Pembrokeshire. Geography Professor, Harold Carter looks at the effects, "If you look at the 'Brut y Tywysogyon' - the Chronicle of the Welsh Princes - it records 'a certain folk of strange origins and customs occupy the whole cantref of Rhôs the estuary of the river Cleddau, and drove away all the inhabitants of the land'. In a way you could almost call it a process of ethnic cleansing."

    Fortification

    A line of over 50 castles and strongholds was built by the Normans and Flemish to protect south Pembrokeshire from the indigenous Welsh, who had been forced to move to the hilly country in the north of the county. The frontier of castles, known as the Landsker line - from the Norse word for divide - stretched from Newgale on the west coast to Amroth on the south east coast.

    Two thirds of the fortifications were earthworks, with stone castles on or near navigable waters. The castle at Haverfordwest was built by the Flemish leader Tancred, soon after the Flemish arrived in 1108. Under its protection a settlement developed and the foundations were laid for a modern market town and commercial centre. The village of Wiston, five miles north-east of Haverfordwest, derived its name from another Fleming, Lord Wizo, who established a castle there, while Letterston was the settlement of the suitably nicknamed Letard Litelking ('Little King').

    Tenby, on the south east coast of Pembrokeshire, grew in the 12th Century, when surrounding walls, a castle and a church were erected for the convenience of the Flemish colonists. The Flemish were experts in the woollen trade, and soon flourished in the area.

    The Flemish occupied the more productive farming land in Pembrokeshire, south of the Landsker line, in the lowland areas. Here the land was fertile and warmed by the Gulf Stream, enjoying Indian summers, mild winters and early springs. Crops were ready two weeks before those in the north of the county, where the terrain was more mountainous.

    The Landsker Line

    Before the Norman Conquest, the majority of what is now Pembrokeshire would have been Welsh speaking. The Landsker line became a cultural and linguistic boundary which divided Pembrokeshire into two.

    The influx of Flemings into south Pembrokeshire was so great that the Welsh language was eradicated and Flemish gradually gave way to English as the dominant language. However, it was a dialect spoken with a strong and distinctive accent and with a large vocabulary of words not commonly found elsewhere.
    https://www.theapricity.com/forum/sh...land-and-Wales

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little...d_beyond_Wales
    Norman period
    Early documentary evidence of Flemish immigration from England, rather than directly from Flanders, is given by contemporary William of Malmesbury (1095–1143), who wrote:
    King Henry removed all the Flemings in England into Wales. England contained so many of these Flemings...that the country was overburthened with them. Wherefore with the two-fold intent of clearing the land, and repressing the brutal audacity of the foe, he settled them with all their property and goods in Ros, a Welsh province.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flemish_people
    Prior to the 1600s, there were several substantial waves of Flemish migration to the United Kingdom. Today, numerous towns in England and Wales boast large or majority populations with Flemish ancestry as a result. The first wave fled to England in the early 12th Century, escaping damages from a storm across the coast of Flanders, where they were largely resettled in Pembrokeshire by Henry I. They changed the culture and accent in south Pembrokeshire to such an extent, that it led to the area receiving the name Little England beyond Wales. Haverfordwest[31] and Tenby consequently grew as important settlements for the Flemish settlers.[32]

    In the 14th Century, encouraged by King Edward III and perhaps in part due to his marriage to Philippa of Hainault, another wave of migration to England occurred when skilled cloth weavers from Flanders were granted permission to settle there and contribute to the then booming cloth and woollen industries.[33] These migrants particularly settled in the growing Lancashire and Yorkshire textile towns of Manchester,[34] Bolton,[35] Blackburn,[36] Liversedge,[37] Bury,[38] Halifax[39][40] and Wakefield.[41]

    Demand for Flemish weavers in England occurred again in both the 15th and 16th Centuries, but this time particularly focused on towns close to the coastline of East Anglia and South East England. Many from this generation of weavers went to Colchester, Sandwich[42] and Braintree.[43] In 1582, it was estimated that there could have been around 1600 Flemish in Sandwich, today almost half of its total population.[44] London, Norwich and North Walsham, however, were the most popular destinations, and the nickname for Norwich City F.C. fans, Canaries, is derived from the fact that many of the Norfolk weavers kept pet canaries.[45][46] The town of Whitefield, near Bury, also claims to owe its name to Flemish cloth weavers that settled in the area during this era, who would lay their cloths out in the sun to bleach them.[47]
    Last edited by J. Ketch; 12-31-2021 at 07:13 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Creoda View Post
    Luckily Graham made a good Southwest Scottish average. Versus my earlier model:

    Target: Scottish_Southwest
    Distance: 0.5820% / 0.58202890 | ADC: 0.25x RC
    72.2 Insular_Celtic
    21.6 Germanic
    3.3 Roman
    2.9 Gaulish

    If you look at the academic chart I posted above, it fits alright with the estimate for Scotland.
    Can you post the coordinates for this model.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Creoda View Post
    Neither me, the figure in my calc and the Viking paper says about 26% rather.

    It's probably more that Welsh are mixed with English, not so much 'Anglo-Saxons'/Germanics directly. Wales has been part of the Kingdom of England for over 700 years. Edward I built a Ring of Iron of fortified towns around Wales and settled them with English, and some of South Wales had been re-settled even before that I think, and in more modern Industrial times you have more English migration there, why so many Welsh have English surnames. Monmouthshire was nominally considered an English county until the 19th/20th century.
    Over 20% of Wales population was born in England, and prior to this as you said there’s been settlements for centuries.

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