Macedonia-third albanian state on the balkans?

[Rammstein]

Anticka macedonia :D sooner or later is going to be e federal country , west part albaninan(Ilirida) and east part(this name is under construction :D). This will depend on how the north Kosovo problem is going to be solved.

[Bugarash 1893]

Krusevo Municipality-who would have thought eh?

But yeah,one of the most historical regions is in front of the threat of becoming a dominant albanian municipality.
And this is where the bulgarian and albanian interests will crash.

We already have more albanians being born than macedonians and vlachs combained.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/MKD_muni_nonn%28Krusevo%29.png

According to the 2002 census:


Macedonians - 6.081 62,8%
Albanians - 2.064 21,3%
Vlachs - 1.020 10,5%
Turks - 315 3,25%
Bosnians - 137 1,41%

Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011


Macedonians

51/96
56/78
52/86
40/78


Albanians

43/16
61/13
44/14
42/10


Vlachs

5/9
3/4
1/17
2/18


Turks

9/2
14/3
10/1
4/1


Bosnians

2/1
1/3
1/0
3/2

[Bugarash 1893]

This is the winner.
The municipality with the highest birth rate in Macedonia.

This is olso one of the municipalities with the smallest portion of macedonians.

Studenicani Municipality

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/da/MKD_muni_nonn%28Studenicani%29.png

According to the 2002 census:


Albanians = 11,793 (68.4%)
Turks = 3,285 (19.1%)
Bosnians = 1,662 (9.6%)

Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011


Albanians

308/68
289/59
357/62
315/66


Turks

49/13
66/13
47/9
53/21


Bosnians

39/4
34/16
33/10
30/12

[Bugarash 1893]

In Bitola it is hard to say how many of the born albanians are in fact children born to brides from Albania due to the fact that there is a native albanian population in Bitola Municipality.

Bitola is by far the worst macedonian city as far the population decrease.

Brides from Albania cant change much.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ae/BitolaMap.png

According to the 2002 census:


Macedonians 84.616 88,7%
Albanians 4.164 4,4%
Roma 2.613 2,7%

Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011



Macedonians

757 / 1083 -326

760 / 1027 -267

785 / 1071 -286

705/1.092 -385


Roma

80 / 14 +66

113 / 23 +90

121 / 18 +103

82 / 24 +58


Albanians

65 / 37 +28

79 / 36 +43

45 / 34 +11

64 / 22 +42

I didint want to post the stats on the Vlachs in Bitola who are being assimilated by the macedonians...if it wasnt for them the drop of the macedonians in Bitola would have been larger.

[Crn Volk]

I don't see any bulgarians in these numbers...oops

[Bugarash 1893]

I don't see any bulgarians in these numbers...oops

Still didint get that macedonians are a balkan version of the austrians.;)

[Grizzly]

Wow, shit don't look good for the Maks. Albos may have a large emigration rate but we still have a young overall age which is beneficial in the long run and I'm sure Macedonian emigrations will increase.

Bugurash do you have stats on emigration stats for Macedonia? Do you know the # of Albos and Macedonians leaving(separately though)?

Also do you have the birth/death rate stats for Kiecovo and Struga?

[Crn Volk]

Wow, shit don't look good for the Maks. Albos may have a large emigration rate but we still have a young overall age which is beneficial in the long run and I'm sure Macedonian emigrations will increase.

Bugurash do you have stats on emigration stats for Macedonia? Do you know the # of Albos and Macedonians leaving(separately though)?

Also do you have the birth/death rate stats for Kiecovo and Struga?

Bugarash is busy sowing his Ilirida flag, preparing it for hoisting. He'll be with you in a sec

[Guapo]

Sofia je Aljbania

[Bugarash 1893]

Wow, shit don't look good for the Maks. Albos may have a large emigration rate but we still have a young overall age which is beneficial in the long run and I'm sure Macedonian emigrations will increase.

Bugurash do you have stats on emigration stats for Macedonia? Do you know the # of Albos and Macedonians leaving(separately though)?

Also do you have the birth/death rate stats for Kiecovo and Struga?

Dont think that macedonians dont have a large emigration rate,you should pay a visit to Eastern Macedonia...

From Gostivar going towards Struga are the areas where the albanians have a really large emigration rate.Central Macedonia on the other hand is an example how the birth rate of all albanians would have been if there wasnt emigration.

There is no stats on foreign migration only on internal...

Struga is a very confusing area.
Because there is a large number of macedonian muslims who are split.Some declare to be Torbesh,some as Muslims,some declare to be Albanians others declare as Turks and the rest Macedonians.

Intermarriage between macedonian muslims and albanians is comon and these stats show the birth under the ehnicity to which the mother belongs to.

But still,nothing here is certain because during the census period of 1994-2002,the number of macedonians in Struga decreased by 400 people.

So lets start from Struga:

According to the 2002 census:


Albanians 36.029 56,8%
Macedonians 20.336 32,1%
Turks 3.628 5,7%
Vlachs 656 1,0%
Others 2.717 4,3%


Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011


Macedonians

288/269
204/238
273/248
252/238


Albanians

299/189
276/171
314/201
301/164


Turks

15/13
22/14
10/3
15/10


Vlachs

0/2
0/1
0/0
0/2


Roma

9/3
10/1
8/1
10/2


Just look how many we have under 'Others'

Others

86/23
93/33
90/32
118/32

As we can see,In 2002 we have 4,3% people from the total who are in the graph 'Others'.
While now we have more than 15% of the births going as Others.

I dont have any other explanation exept that there is an increasing trend of macedonian muslims that declare to be macedonians anymore.

This situation with the Births/Deaths going in the graph 'Others' we have only in municipalities where there large numbers of macedonian muslims.

So they are probably declaring to be Torbesh or Muslims as their nationality...those two national graphs dont exist in the official terminology of the macedonian statistical office.So thats why they are being added to the graph Others.

[Bugarash 1893]

These two are one of the most homogeneous albanian municipalities in Macedonia.

Albanians do have a high,very high growth rate for european standards in these areas...but it could have been even higher if there wasnt such a big emigration rate.

Aracinovo Municipality is a surprise,the growth it has is below the albanian avarage for this type of municipalities.

Didint want to show the stat about the Births/Deaths rate on macedonians because now there probably arent any macedonians left in these municipalities...

Even the macedonians that are counted in the 2002 census are counted while they lived in refugee homes.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c8/ArachinovoMap.png

According to the 2002 census:


Albanians 10,879 93.8%
Macedonians 596 5.1%

Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011

Albanians


236/54
220/41
245/41
205/52

Lipkovo is even worse...just as Aracinovo we can see that there is high albanian emigration present here.

If it didint have a high rate of emigration it would have been like the Studenicani Municipality...

If it was like Studenicani there would have been about 800 albanian births with a growth rate of +600.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/86/MKD_muni_nonn%28Lipkovo%29.png

According to the 2002 census:


Albanians 26.360 97,4%
Macedonians 169 0,6%
Serbs 370 1,4%


Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011

Albanians


334/127
353/126
370/133
341/149

[Bugarash 1893]

Now this is what I was talking about

You have the best breeding conditions for the albanians.

Its an isolated rural mountain area with a low albanian emigration rate.
And we have the following results:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/66/MKD_muni_nonn%28caska%29.png

Caska Municipality

According to the 2002 census:


Macedonians: 4.395 57,3%
Albanias: 2.703 35,2%
Turks: 391 5,1%

Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2020-2011


Macedonians

36/70
37/67
37/66
26/63


Albanians

49/18
95/14
109/12
111/20


Turks

2/1
0/3
6/1
3/0


Bosnians

3/0
0/0
0/1
0/0

[Crn Volk]

Now this is what I was talking about

You have the best breeding conditions for the albanians.

Its an isolated rural mountain area with a low albanian emigration rate.
And we have the following results:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/66/MKD_muni_nonn%28caska%29.png

Caska Municipality

According to the 2002 census:


Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2020-2011

Still no bulgars?

Welcome to Caska

http://www.2ecarta.com/caska/images/stories/novosti/2012/9/Szh/saem2012_5.jpg

http://www.caska.gov.mk/

[Bugarash 1893]

Still no bulgars?

Welcome to Caska

http://www.2ecarta.com/caska/images/stories/novosti/2012/9/Szh/saem2012_5.jpg

http://www.caska.gov.mk/

Looking at these trends we can say that Caska currently has an albanian majority.I mean the municipality was formed back in 2005 for that purpose.

The albanian villages were added to the municipality so we could have today this situation.

We have two radical examples here combained in one municipality.
Dying macedonian villages and booming albanian ones.

An even more radical example we have in the Municipality of Dolneni

Dolneni Municipality

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/55/MKD_muni_nonn%28Dolneni%29.png

According to the 2002 census:


Macedonians 4.871 35,9%
Albanians 3.616 26,7%
Turks 2.597 19,1%
Bosnians 2.380 17,5%

Deaths/Births 2008-2009-2010-2011


Macedonians

37/97
42/89
41/77
57/91


Albanians

106/20
85/23
88/17
95/12


Turks

32/10
38/11
37/18
38/23


Bosnians

12/2
10/11
13/12
30/15

[Grizzly]

Macedonia is a ticking time bomb! If Macedonia was wise it would just cut its losses in the West, better to amputate the leg before the infection spreads..


Bugurash please post more! Do you have stats on the average age of population for both Albanians or Macedonians? Or size of family? etc?

[Crn Volk]

Macedonia is a ticking time bomb! If Macedonia was wise it would just cut its losses in the West, better to amputate the leg before the infection spreads..


Bugurash please post more! Do you have stats on the average age of population for both Albanians or Macedonians? Or size of family? etc?

The infection would not cease. We all know what's required for that to happen, and it doesn't involve border changes.

[Grizzly]

The infection would not cease. We all know what's required for that to happen, and it doesn't involve border changes.

:picard1::picard1:

You couldn't take out a bunch of rebels in 2001.. It will be the death of Macedonia if you decided to go in guns blazing, you wouldn't even defeat a bunch of rebels and lets not even think of the possibility of Albania jumping in. It would be an Albanian crusade :D

[Guapo]

:picard1::picard1:

You couldn't take out a bunch of rebels in 2001.. It will be the death of Macedonia if you decided to go in guns blazing, you wouldn't even defeat a bunch of rebels and lets not even think of the possibility of Albania jumping in. It would be an Albanian crusade :D

:rotfl:

[Crn Volk]

:picard1::picard1:

You couldn't take out a bunch of rebels in 2001.. It will be the death of Macedonia if you decided to go in guns blazing, you wouldn't even defeat a bunch of rebels and lets not even think of the possibility of Albania jumping in. It would be an Albanian crusade :D

Albanian army....

http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSdB0cRzfhzBtclvgjgOrv7Wmo881YXM QPo1tBXt4pjFGu8GXFYJoy4rvphgg

[el22]

Albanian army....

http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSdB0cRzfhzBtclvgjgOrv7Wmo881YXM QPo1tBXt4pjFGu8GXFYJoy4rvphgg


Well, yes, it is in our tradition to fight only against opponents that are bigger in number and better equipped, so for MonkeyDonia we have trained an unit of monkeys.

But not all monkeys in the picture above are soldiers... two of them are the girlfriends of two soldiers.


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Y1Al9Y9L0FA/T9NoFrRNNxI/AAAAAAAAAXY/cVYNOYCcAuE/s320/imgres.jpg

[Sultan Suleiman]

http://narwhaler.com/img/ii/8/darth-sidious-good-good-let-the-buthurt-flow-throu-Ii8DVa.jpg

I see Bosniaks are slowly taking over some regions...

[Grizzly]

http://static.quickmeme.com/media/social/qm.gif

I see Bosniaks are slowly taking over some regions...

:picard2:

Ugh, what is a Bosniak again?

[Guapo]

:picard2:

Ugh, what is a Bosniak again?

Same thing as a Kosovar, a fake nationality.

[Bugarash 1893]

Do you have stats on the average age of population for both Albanians or Macedonians? Or size of family? etc?

There arent any stats about how many children does a macedonian or albanian family have.

But there are statistics about the births.

We can compare the municipalities with the same number of population.

Kriva Palanka-a municipality that has an decrease in population but is still doing good for macedonian standards,it has a population of 20,000 people from which about 5% are gypsies.

2011 births



First birth 175

Second birth 85

Third birth 67

Fourth birth 20

Fifth birth 3

Studenicani Municipality with total of 17,000 people,majority albanian population of almost 70% while the rest are turks-macedonian muslims who think they are turks and bosniaks



First birth 122

Second birth 124

Third birth 104

Fourth birth 37

Fifth birth 8

Sixth birth 5

Ninth birth 1

[Bugarash 1893]

Gruevski knows something that the rest dont


Премиерот го насочи, како што рече – на нестандардни теми за ваква пригода – проблемот со демографијата, и искривените вредности за кои се води дебата.

Затоа од ова што ќе го говорам во голема мерка зависи иднината на нашата држава, на нашата нација од повеќе аспекти, економски, политички, ако сакате и од аспект на опстанокот на една држава и на еден народ. Ќе говорам за еден сериозен предизвик, па и проблем да го наречеме. Ако сакате во чие решавање мора да бидеме сите сплотени, да се мобилизираме и заеднички да делуваме, без разлика на нашата ваква или онаква припадност. Тоа е проблемот. Тоа е проблемот како со демографијата и депопулацијата или како што неодамна кажав рецесија на нацијата, рече Груевски.

This is the third speech he gives of this sort in the last month or so...

[Crn Volk]

Gruevski knows something that the rest dont



This is the third speech he gives of this sort in the last month or so...

Perhaps he's talking about this;

http://www.maticanaiselenici.com/?page=read_news&id=29079

Bulgaria and other countries in the region are facing the same issues. I mean look at Bulgaria's rapidly declining population, it is alarming to say the least.

[Bugarash 1893]

Perhaps he's talking about this;

http://www.maticanaiselenici.com/?page=read_news&id=29079

Bulgaria and other countries in the region are facing the same issues. I mean look at Bulgaria's rapidly declining population, it is alarming to say the least.
Naive.
Do you know how many unregistered are immigrating abroad?

Do you know how many macedonians with bulgarian passports arent counted in the official stats?

He is talking about the birth rate and not about the immigration.
He probably now speaks about what he saw during the census which he stopped.

Bulgaria is in EU.
Serbia and Macedonia arent and are on the same level of population diclane!

With EU help,in the next 8 years,Bulgaria will be a middle income economy.
While-lets talk hipothetically,Serbia in 2025 is expected to join the EU...
Then you will see what is a exodus.

You dont even have to wait to join the EU to go somewhere in Europe,you are already EU citizens.:thumb001:

[Crn Volk]

With EU help

Keep wishing for that. You haven't seen the news in the last 12 months??

[Bugarash 1893]

Keep wishing for that. You haven't seen the news in the last 12 months??

Have you seen what Bulgaria is doing with EU fund money and what it will be doing for the next program period 2014-2020?

It is not a wish,its is normal to gain prosperty after 15 years EU membership.;)

[Bugarash 1893]

Macedonia is almost completely lost.

So lets take Serbia for an example.
They had visas till yesterday while Bulgaria has 6 years now free movment for labor in the EU.

And still,Serbia is doing worse.
Good thing they let Kosovo go.

First 5 months of 2012

Births/Deaths

http://www.dodaj.rs/f/T/WR/qkKCp3U/jan-maj-srbija.gif


Entire 2011

Births/Deaths

http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/4315/2011srbija.gif

[Bugarash 1893]

The bad period for Macedonia/macedonians is just starting.

The dying out of the baby boom generation in Macedonia has just begun.
Pretty late if we compare it to Serbia and Bulgaria but still.
Now is when the big population diclane follow.

Check out the growth of the mortality rate in the first 6 months of 2010-2011-2012.

Births/Deaths


I-VI 2010

11.804 - 9.668 +2.136


I-VI 2011

11.209 - 10.028 +1.181


I-VI 2012

10.966 - 10.661 +305

We olso have a dramatic drop in growth...
Now,when a person sees this it seems all good.
I mean hey there isnt almost a country in Europe where you can find growth.

But the problem starts when you see that the macedonians are the ones taking the drop while the others-40% muslim population is just filling in the holes.

But as things are going,even they wont be able to cover up the decrease for long.

[Drawing-slim]

Soon these annoying macedonians and serbs will be history.
Its gods design at seems, to give us a much well-earned break from these cockroaches.

[Bugarash 1893]

I posted the stats about the 2008-2009-2010 Births/Deaths but now I'll be adding the update with 2011 for the rest municipalities.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0b/MKD_muni_nonn%28Demir_Hisar%29.png

Demir Hisar-my grandfather is from a village in this region

There are two populated places that we can call settlements still existing there,the large village that has a title 'town' Demir Hisar which is the regions capital with about 2500 people and Sopotnica-about 900 people according to the last census.

Everything else is mostly ghost villages-this is btw the region with the biggest concentration of villages.

According to the 2002 census there were:


Macedonians 9.179 96,7%

Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011

Macedonians


62/140
69/154
57/145
71/131

[Crn Volk]

The bad period for Macedonia/macedonians is just starting.

The dying out of the baby boom generation in Macedonia has just begun.
Pretty late if we compare it to Serbia and Bulgaria but still.
Now is when the big population diclane follow.

Check out the growth of the mortality rate in the first 6 months of 2010-2011-2012.

Births/Deaths



We olso have a dramatic drop in growth...
Now,when a person sees this it seems all good.
I mean hey there isnt almost a country in Europe where you can find growth.

But the problem starts when you see that the macedonians are the ones taking the drop while the others-40% muslim population is just filling in the holes.

But as things are going,even they wont be able to cover up the decrease for long.

If what you say is true and we are doomed, and your answer is Bulgaria, then what will Bulgaria do? It does not have the population itself to ship Bulgarians in these areas. If it did so, then Bulgaria would be de-populated....any solutions from you?

[Bugarash 1893]

If what you say is true and we are doomed, and your answer is Bulgaria, then what will Bulgaria do? It does not have the population itself to ship Bulgarians in these areas. If it did so, then Bulgaria would be de-populated....any solutions from you?

A solution or not and Bulgaria is probably the solution.
Anyway, my answer wouldnt be Bulgaria.

But If Macedonia and Bulgaria became one country the % of albanians would swell from 30% to 5%.

Bulgaria would have been in a loss if she had FYR Macedonia within its borders.

Bulgaria has no interest whatsoever all of todays Vardar Macedonia.
Maybe to divided in a similar way as in WW2 would have rose interest.

I think that Bulgaria should want only the Strumica region from Macedonia which was taken from her after WW1.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Zapadni_pokrajnini.png

You can keep the rest together with all of the albanians,bosniaks,turks,roma,vlachs,brainwashed macedonists...

[Crn Volk]

A solution or not and Bulgaria is probably the solution.
Anyway, my answer wouldnt be Bulgaria.

But If Macedonia and Bulgaria became one country the % of albanians would swell from 30% to 5%.

Bulgaria would have been in a loss if she had FYR Macedonia within its borders.

Bulgaria has no interest whatsoever all of todays Vardar Macedonia.
Maybe to divided in a similar way as in WW2 would have rose interest.

I think that Bulgaria should want only the Strumica region from Macedonia which was taken from her after WW1.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Zapadni_pokrajnini.png

You can keep the rest together with all of the albanians,bosniaks,turks,roma,vlachs,brainwashed macedonists...

Yes, but what would Bulgaria do to stem the population decline. That 5% would quickly grow to 10%, 15% etc etc and bang, we have the same problem.

[Bugarash 1893]

Yes, but what would Bulgaria do to stem the population decline. That 5% would quickly grow to 10%, 15% etc etc and bang, we have the same problem.

Bulgaria has instruments for maneuvers...

1.Bulgaria has a demographic reserve of almost 1 million bessarabian bulgarians and gagauzians in the poorest countries of Europe such as Ukraine and Moldova.

2.Another 1 million bulgarians in a newly formed diaspora concentrated not in far corners of the world but in Europe and most of them in countries that are in a crisis like Spain.

3.Bulgaria Its is on the path to become a middle income economy by the end of this decade.

4.And its a member of the EU who's citizenship offers free movment of labor,and we know how easy is for albanians to emigrate when having even the smallest chance.

So,if Bulgaria had all of the albanians in Macedonia within its borders it will be just fine.

But albanians in Macedonia on the other hand dont have the growth potential needed to pose a threat withn a country od 9,5 million.

They are losing the straight.

In the early 90's,the albanian element on the balkans had a growth rate that was among the highest in the world!

In the early 1990's,on the balkans there were more albanians being born than serbs and croats put together!

If you asked me back then I would say that we were looking at the nation that was to become the most numerous on the balkans.
But...the rate with which they are dropping in birth rates just changes all predictions.

Just take Kosovo for an example:

In 1990,Kosovo has 55.175 births and 8 214 deaths.

Births/Deaths for the following years:


2006: 30.689 / 7.246
2007: 29.188 / 6.443
2008: 29.045 / 6.553
2009: 28.106 / 6.640
2010: 27.535 / 6.904
2011: 28.057 / 6.749

*Reminder: in 1990 about 10% of Kosovo's population are serbs who olso contrributed for the number of births.

The number of births in Kosovo has fallen double in the last 20 years!
They still have a birth rate that is very high for european standards but the drop they are experiencing from 1990 to 2010 or in this case 2011 is unprecedented.

Albanians remain a vital element though...emigration has alot to do with the decrease...

[Crn Volk]

Do you have any stats on how many gypsies in Bulgaria declared as Bulgarians in the last census?

Some worrying trends you should look into.


According to the 2001 census, there were 370,908 Roma in Bulgaria, equivalent to 4.7% of the population.[1] As of 2011, their number is estimated at 500,000.[2] The Roma are the third largest ethnic group in Bulgaria.

From the 1992 census to the 2001 census, the number of Roma in the country has increased by 57,512, or 18.4%. Constituting 4.7% of the total population in 2001, the Roma were only 2.8% in 1910 and 2.0% in 1920.[22]

The Roma are present in all provinces of Bulgaria, their highest percentages in Montana Province (12.5%) and Sliven Province (12.3%) and their smallest percentage in Smolyan Province, where they number 686[23]—about 0.05% of the population.

There is no city, town or village in the country where Roma are the only ethnic group. The largest Roma quarters are Stolipinovo in Plovdiv and Fakulteta in Sofia. The number of places where Roma constitute more than 50% of the population has risen from the 1992 to the 2001 census.

Good luck with the gagauz though...

[Bugarash 1893]

Do you have any stats on how many gypsies in Bulgaria declared as Bulgarians in the last census?

Some worrying trends you should look into.


Told you not to worry about gypsies in Bulgaria.

Even if gypsies are 90% of the population of Bulgaria and bulgarians are 10%,the bulgarians would be in charge.
Gypsies are nomads while albanians are a nation under one flag.

Not to mention that there has been an exodus of bulgarian gypsies from which about 1/3 went in Western Europe since 2007.


If there are 400-500,000 bulgarian gypsies.
300,000 declared to be gypsy on the last census,so almost half state they are bulgarians or turks.

Here is an example of a gypsy who thinks he is bulgarian...check out the part where he says-Im a pure bulgarian:D

LWdfg7KLHzI

[Crn Volk]

Told you not to worry about gypsies in Bulgaria.

Even if gypsies are 90% of the population of Bulgaria and bulgarians are 105,the bulgarians would be in charge.
Gypsies are nomads while albanians are a nation under one flag.

Not to mention that there has been an exodus of bulgarian gypsies from which about 1/3 went in Western Europe since 2007.


If there are 400-500,000 bulgarian gypsies.
300,000 declared to be gypsy on the last census,so almost half state they are bulgarians or turks.

Good luck building an economy with a gypsy workforce :thumb001:

[Bugarash 1893]

Good luck building an economy with a gypsy workforce :thumb001:

By the year Bulgaria will rise up economically there wont be any gypsies left...God bless the EU:thumb001:

But as I said...we're talking about gypsies here.

In Macedonia we have a country with a 40% muslim population,where even gypsies are muslim unlike the ones in Bulgaria.

And of course the 30% albanians.

Not to mention the 4% turks.
4% gypsies.
1% bosniaks.

[Adrian]

But If Macedonia and Bulgaria became one country the % of albanians would swell from 30% to 5%.

haha & ha :rolleyes:

If Macedonia and Bulgaria become one country, Albanians (35% of population) together with the territory inhabited by them will join Albania or Kosova...or both together.

Albanians are not your toys dumb head. Albanians are constituent nation in Macedonia.

So, good luck with your statistics. :bored:

[Bugarash 1893]

haha & ha :rolleyes:

If Macedonia and Bulgaria become one country, Albanians (35% of population) together with the territory inhabited by them will join Albania or Kosova...or both together.

Albanians are not your toys dumb head. Albanians are constituent nation in Macedonia.

So, good luck with your statistics. :bored:

Albanians cant be 35% of the population because they make up 33% of the births and 33% of primary school students.

Currently albanians in Macedonia are 28-29% and they will probably reach 30% some years from now.

I would agree on that.

Albanians take the orange regions without Mavrovo and Rostuse and we're all good.:)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/71/Map_of_the_municipalities_of_the_Polog_Statistical _Region_en.svg

[Bugarash 1893]

Or this is fair:)

with minor corrections,everything south of Gistivar to Bulgaria.

http://i.ebayimg.com/t/RARE-BULGARIAN-MAP-WWII-1943-AEGEAN-SEA-BULGARIA-KINGDOM-ROYAL-SCALE-SEE-/00/s/NTYyWDgwMA==/$(KGrHqMOKpYE6cddCrgLBOqS+D43h!~~60_3.JPG

[Bugarash 1893]

Staro Nagoricane Municipality

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8f/MKD_muni_nonn%28Staro_Nagoricane%29.png

According to the 2002 census:


Macedonians 3.906 80,7%
Serbs 926 19,1%

Births/Deaths

2008-2009-2010-2011


Macedonians

43/85
34/94
32/87
33/79

Serbs

1/18
5/15
2/15
3/15

[iNird]

Looks like you have a follower:

http://www.macedoniantruth.org/forum/showthread.php?t=7049

:laugh:

[Bugarash 1893]

Good thing someone is spreading the word among the brainwashed ancientski...

They really arent aware of how crucial the situation is.

I mean this year we will have more muslim children being born than christian ones!

The situation is almost irreversible,not that the 30% albanian population isnt dramatic enough.

[dralos]

bugarash on my next visit in balkan,i'm inviting you and all alboz on dinner so we can discuss our plans for fyrom,are you coming?

[Bugarash 1893]

bugarash on my next visit in balkan,i'm inviting you and all alboz on dinner so we can discuss our plans for fyrom,are you coming?

Why not.
Burektore Bosna will be the spot of meeting.
Be sure to bring a map.:thumb001:

[dralos]

where is that burektore bosna located?

[Bugarash 1893]

where is that burektore bosna located?

Near the new medical high school in Tetovo,on the same street.

[dralos]

great and armani,morski and all bulgarian members are invited
first shots are on me:D

[Crn Volk]

Sorry to break up the party, but I'm not quite sure if you've taken into account the exodus of Roma and Alboz from Macedonia and Serbia at the moment;

See thread;

http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?t=60673


ethnic Albanian and Roma minorities, who make up the overwhelming majority of the asylum seekers.

[iNird]

Sorry to break up the party, but I'm not quite sure if you've taken into account the exodus of Roma and Alboz from Macedonia and Serbia at the moment;

See thread;

http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?t=60673

Most of these people will be kicked out. Even if the Albanian asylumers are successful, the amount of asylumers pale in comparison in comparison to the amount of Macedonians claiming Bulgarian citizenship successfully.

Anyways as I've said before, Macedonian figure will surely decrease. Albanian figure may decrease or increase but I don't think the change will be drastic. Thus, Albanian relative % will increase, and Macedonian decrease. Hence, why it is taking so long to conduct a census........

[Crn Volk]

Most of these people will be kicked out. Even if the Albanian asylumers are successful, the amount of asylumers pale in comparison in comparison to the amount of Macedonians claiming Bulgarian citizenship successfully.

Anyways as I've said before, Macedonian figure will surely decrease. Albanian figure may decrease or increase but I don't think the change will be drastic. Thus, Albanian relative % will increase, and Macedonian decrease. Hence, why it is taking so long to conduct a census........

The census is taking so long because of politics, more specifically DUI's demands of having Albanian migrants in 3rd countries counted in the census. VMRO-DPMNE correctly disagrees and so there is a stale-mate. In order to stay in power, the two sides have agreed to disagree. If SDSM returns to power, there will be a census held, and depending on the make-up of the ruling coalition, Albanian migrants may or may not be counted.

[iNird]

The census is taking so long because of politics, more specifically DUI's demands of having Albanian migrants in 3rd countries counted in the census. VMRO-DPMNE correctly disagrees and so there is a stale-mate. In order to stay in power, the two sides have agreed to disagree. If SDSM returns to power, there will be a census held, and depending on the make-up of the ruling coalition, Albanian migrants may or may not be counted.

From what I read it is more of an issue dealing with the way numbers are counted. I mean the law (or whatever it is called) was passed stating migrant workers needed to have visited a year before the census took place. But Albanians complained that these people and others residing were not counted. Macedonians claim Albanians are propping up the figures. And typical back and forth Balkan madness.

Like I said, the state census shows a decrease of Macedonian population and with the increase of Macedonian taking Bulgarian citizenship, I don't think the Macedonian officials like the results much IMO. But who knows....

You're right that both sides just left the issue alone so both sides can stay in power. The results of the census would effect either side in a negative manner.

[Crn Volk]

From what I read it is more of an issue dealing with the way numbers are counted. I mean the law (or whatever it is called) was passed stating migrant workers needed to have visited a year before the census took place. But Albanians complained that these people and others residing were not counted. Macedonians claim Albanians are propping up the figures. And typical back and forth Balkan madness.

Like I said, the state census shows a decrease of Macedonian population and with the increase of Macedonian taking Bulgarian citizenship, I don't think the Macedonian officials like the results much IMO. But who knows....

You're right that both sides just left the issue alone so both sides can stay in power. The results of the census would effect either side in a negative manner.

Those migrant numbers have previously been included, whereas now they were to be excluded. This would have dropped the number of Albanians, and so questioned the Ohrid Agreement in some parts of the country. So for now it's in the 'too-hard' basket.

[dralos]

sokol you can come to so you can escape the serbian brainwash and become bulgarian once again and stop embarassing your ancesters,how do you think they feel that the country wich they have been fighting for now allies with the enemy servia

[Bugarash 1893]

Sorry to break up the party, but I'm not quite sure if you've taken into account the exodus of Roma and Alboz from Macedonia and Serbia at the moment;

See thread;

http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?t=60673

They wont be let in.
Even if they are granted asylum those numbers are pretty small.

On the other side you have macedonians who are receiving bulgarian passports at the rate of at least 10,000 a year!

At least half of them will leave Macedonia.

[Bugarash 1893]

Those migrant numbers have previously been included, whereas now they were to be excluded. This would have dropped the number of Albanians, and so questioned the Ohrid Agreement in some parts of the country. So for now it's in the 'too-hard' basket.

If the albanian migrants were counted the number of albanians in Macedonia would have been standing at almost 40%.

Statistics show that if there are almost 8000 albanian children being born in Macedonia per year.

There are around 2500 of them being born abroad.

DUI wants to include as much more albanians as it can.
If the census showed 28-29% albanians-(their current number in Macedonia) their position wouldnt change much but if the census shows 35-40% albanians in Macedonia they will have the right to ask for a revision of the Ohrid agreement and ask for more rights,rights reaching as far as turning Macedonia into an official federation.

[Bugarash 1893]

Students in primary school by nationality 2010/11



Total: 201.914

Macedonians: 109.765 (54,3%)

Albanians: 66.156 (32,7%)

Roma: 9.933 (4,9%)

Turks: 9.011 (4,46%)

Bosniaks: 1.994 (0,98%)

Serbs: 1.733 (0,85%)

Vlachs: 316 (0,15%)

Others: 2.980 (1,47%)

[Bugarash 1893]

We dont have official stats from 2001 but former prime minister Ljubco Georgievski in a interview said that in 2001 the albanian students in primary schools were 30%.

And we have continuity of albanians being above 30% in the primary student group as I can see here at least since the school year 2006/2007.

Even if albanians have decreased in number since the last census their % portion has enlarged,for sure.
The albanian births are 33% of the total,albanian students in primary school education have stood at 33%,some school years even more than that...

With this we can come to the conclusion that the albanians in Macedonia currently are around 29-30% of the total population.

2006/2007


Total: 228.207

Macedonians: 122.016 (53,4%)

Albanians: 78.467 (34,5%)

Roma: 9.603 (4,2%)

Turks: 9.599 (4,2%)

Serbs: 2.242 (0,98%)

Bosniaks: 2.205 (0,96%)

Vlachs: 406 (0,18%)

[Bugarash 1893]

Im a man with a hobby.

One of which is demography.
I have been studying the demographic situation in Macedonia closely.

There is no doub that if Macedonia is to become a flash spot of unstability the albanian population must reach 35% of the total population.I personally tought that the current % of albanians would be enough for them to transform Macedonia into a federal unit but...the albanian elite in the ruling coalition just ignores situation.

When the albanians become above 30% I think the problem would have to be tackled.

Albanians are the best tool we have on the field in the fight against macedonism.

[dralos]

Im a man with a hobby.

One of which is demography.
I have been studying the demographic situation in Macedonia closely.

There is no doub that if Macedonia is to become a flash spot of unstability the albanian population must reach 35% of the total population.

Albanians are the best tool we have on the field in the fight against macedonism.
dont act like you're somekind of master,its not about demographics or anything but albanians are treated like shit by fyrom authorities if they were treated equally we wouldnt have any problems

[dralos]

and the problem why they treat us bad is because of serbian influences

[Bugarash 1893]

You can protect youreselves.

Albanians are a strong factor within Macedonia,you just arent using your full potential or in this case you are voting for a political elite that gave up spreading your right in all state sectors and on all levels.

They treat you bad because the BDI became a vagina since its in a coalition with Gruevski.

They havent asked/blackmailed for more rights for the albanians since like 2005.

[dralos]

bugarash you know more about political albanian parties in fyrom than me so i cant argue with you about that,but you're right they're fucking backstabbers to albanians
they get their pockets full so wtf they care

[Vojnik]

dont act like you're somekind of master,its not about demographics or anything but albanians are treated like shit by fyrom authorities if they were treated equally we wouldnt have any problems

Albanians are treated better then the Macedonians. :picard1:

[dralos]

Albanians are treated better then the Macedonians. :picard1:
are you serious?its not like serbs in kosova who are treated like kings,our corrupt goverment build them new houses and all

[iNird]

Albanians are treated better then the Macedonians. :picard1:

This is a lie that has been told over and over again by Macedonians and has become a "truth" in their eyes. Vojnik will not be able to support this stance nor was Pigeon when she said the same thing.

Keep believing them mate.....

[dado]

unfortunately that could happen

[ALSh]

Now this is what I was talking about

You have the best breeding conditions for the albanians.

Its an isolated rural mountain area with a low albanian emigration rate.
And we have the following results:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/66/MKD_muni_nonn%28caska%29.png

Caska Municipality

According to the 2002 census:


Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2020-2011

Interesting :coffee: Thanks Bugarash for sharing

[Bugarash 1893]

:thumb001:

[Bugarash 1893]

I would add some sides of the serbian demographic picture here,dont want to open a thread about demography on every subforum.

[Bugarash 1893]

Here we have the Births/Deaths rate by years in urban and rural areas of Serbia.

The depopulation rate of villages is just catastrophic.

Births in villages/rural regions has decreased from 31.057 to 21.620 in just 8 years!


2011

Cities : 45.430/54.128
Villages : 20.168/48.807

2010

Cities : 46.684/53.822
Villages : 21.620/49.389

2009

Cities : 46.896/54.234
Villages : 23.403/49.766

2008

Cities : 45.389/52.783
Villages : 23.694/49.928

2007

Cities : 44.776/53.469
Villages : 23.326/49.336

2006

Cities : 46.401/53.073
Villages : 24.596/49.811

2005

Cities : 46.754/54.937
Villages : 25.426/51.834

2004

Cities : 47.998/52.701
Villages : 30.188/51.619

2003

Cities : 47.968/51.817
Villages : 31.057/52.129

By this rate,if Kosovo remained in Serbia if not later but in the period 1999-2008,albanians would have spread into the regions out of Kosovo,in the lands that were dealbanized.

[Alexandros]

I do not thnik that (all of) F.Y.R.O.M will be the third albanian state, because the Albanian make up 25-35% of population and not 85-95% like in Albania or Kosovo. The northwestern part of F.Y.R.O.M is de facto like Albania. The northern and western borders are relative albanian, but not with an albanian majority.
But I thnik that tha Albanian Element will grow.




Alexandros

[Bugarash 1893]

The situation is more complicated because the capital city has 25% albanians.
And not just that but the albanians in Skopje the the most vital element of all albanians in Macedonia

[Bugarash 1893]

Increases and Decreases in population as a reults of Biths/Deaths.

I combained them in two groups:

Christian Macedonians,Serbs and Vlachs
and Muslim Albanians,Turks,Gypsies and Bosniaks


2008

Macedonians,Serbs,Vlachs - 2.174

Albanians,Turks,Gypsies,Bosniaks + 6.137


2009

Macedonians,Serbs,Vlachs - 2.098

Albanians,Turks,Gypsies,Bosniaks + 6.722


2010

Macedonians,Serbs,Vlachs - 2028

Albanians,Turks,Gypsies,Bosniaks + 7.176


2011

Macedonians,Serbs,Vlachs - 3.225

Albanians,Turks,Gypsies,Bosniaks + 6.530

[Grizzly]

Increases and Decreases in population as a reults of Biths/Deaths.

I combained them in two groups:

Christian Macedonians,Serbs and Vlachs
and Muslim Albanians,Turks,Gypsies and Bosniaks

Hmm. Bugurash we need to make some type of standard graph with percentages and future predictions

Doing some quick and shitty calculations basically the christian population decreased by almost .7% of the total christian population while the non christian population grew by almost 3.8% of the total non christian population and that's for 4 years only..!!

If lets say the Christian population is around 64% in 2012 with a population of lets say 1,300,000 with the non christian population being around 37% and with a population of lets say 700,000 by 2027 here is my projected demographic outlook for 2027

Christian population in 2027: 1,263,980
Total percentage 60.87%
A Decrease of 36,020 and 3.23%

Non Christian population in 2027: 812,619
Total percentage: 39.13%
A gain of 112,619 and 2.13%
Total Population of Macedonia in 2027: 2,076,527

However, this number in reality would probably look more like a 55/45 split as the number of Christians will probably decrease further due to the ageing of the population resulting in higher death rates which isn't taken in effect in my calculations. Also, the number doesn't include the the increased number of macedonians looking to leave the country, for example, the number of Maks taking bulgarian citizenship is high. I also think we might see an increased shift in emigration from the macedonian population which will further decrease the number.

Thoughts? This is a very basic model which doesn't include other factors. I think if you include the other factors the split would probably be 55/45 in 2027.

[Alexandros]

Albanian settlement area
http://cartographie.sciences-po.fr/sites/default/files/42C_albanais.jpg

http://img160.imageshack.us/img160/4151/arton2039gr5.jpg




Alexandros

[Bugarash 1893]

Christian population in 2027: 1,263,980
Total percentage 60.87%
A Decrease of 36,020 and 3.23%

Non Christian population in 2027: 812,619
Total percentage: 39.13%
A gain of 112,619 and 2.13%
Total Population of Macedonia in 2027: 2,076,527


I had to say it but we should thank Serboslavia for that the % of muslims isnt higher...

And the above posted stats are if things resume in the current rate,which is not to expect because the demographic picture can only get worse.

The muslim population is already about 38%...by 2027 Macedonia will be a majority muslim state!

Or at the best scenario 50/50.

Btw have in minds that there are Torbesh muslims who declare to be macedonians,so the number of muslims is larger.

With Macedonia becoming majority muslim I think the biggest preassure will fall on Greece,out of geo-political aspect.

Greece will border 3 majority islamic states.

[Bugarash 1893]

I really need to get into policitcs...I know everything about this game,even can predict what will happen...

Map of the so called Ilirida

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_GOJP6BkWmXY/Slx89AazrCI/AAAAAAAAPQE/myRDHHJC_a0/s400/ilirida.png

The purple area is almost the exact territory that will be made up out of majority albanian municipalities when Kicevo falls in 2013.

[Midori]

I do not thnik that (all of) F.Y.R.O.M will be the third albanian state, because the Albanian make up 25-35% of population and not 85-95% like in Albania or Kosovo. The northwestern part of F.Y.R.O.M is de facto like Albania. The northern and western borders are relative albanian, but not with an albanian majority.
But I thnik that tha Albanian Element will grow.




Alexandros

Whaaat 35%?! That's way too much, it's more like 20% or so.



Btw have in minds that there are Torbesh muslims who declare to be macedonians,so the number of muslims is larger.


The Torbesh declare as Turks and sometimes Albanians in most cases.

[Bugarash 1893]

Whaaat 35%?! That's way too much, it's more like 20% or so.

Cant be 20% because the portion of albanians in the total births and in children in primary school is 33%...

The albanians currently are around 28%.


The Torbesh declare as Turks and sometimes Albanians in most cases.

There are still some who declare as macedonians.
But due to wrong policies their number is decreasing.

[Bugarash 1893]

The resources and monuments found in the albanian areas of Macedonia:


Mavrovo national park
Mavrovo ski center
Mavrovo Lake
Mavrovo Hydro Power Plant
Radika river
Crni Drim river
Shar Mountain
Popova Shapka ski center
Ioan Bigorski Monastery
Markov Monastery
Thermal Power Plant Oslomej
Debar Lake
Debar Hydro Power Plant
Kosovrasti Spa
Globocica Lake
Globocica Hydro Power Plant
Polog Valley
Struga region of Lake Ohrid
Galichnik village
Gari village
Lazaropole village
Bunarghic-largest industrial zone in Macedonia
Skopje Airport
Lipkovo Lake
Kozjak Lake
Kozjak Hydro Power Plant

So,majority of the tourist,economic,cultural,natural capacities of Macedonia are located in albanian populated regions.

This leads us to the conlusion that if the albanian part is separated from Macedonia,the rest will have no choice but to unite with Bulgaria.

[Midori]

This leads us to the conlusion that if the albanian part is separated from Macedonia,the rest will have no choice but to unite with Bulgaria.

I'm sure Serbia wouldn't mind Macedonia becoming part of it.

[Bugarash 1893]

I'm sure Serbia wouldn't mind Macedonia becoming part of it.

One more move out of Serbia and it will officialy fall under NATO occupation.
Dont expect a voice out of Serbia at least in the next 50 years.

[Bugarash 1893]

The first 8 months of this year in Macedonia just confirmed my constatation...

With the reults of 2011 we saw that the dying out of the baby boom generation in the macedonian body has started.

Births/Deaths


I-VIII 2011 : 15.195 / 12.934 (+2.261)

I-VIII 2012 : 15.272 / 13.787 (+1.485)

The birth rate looks unchanged but the mortality has a large increase.

My rough estimate will be that the natural decrease of macedonians for 2012 will be between minus 3,500 and 4000.

*Btw in a couple of days we will have the Births/Deaths results for the third quarter of this year by municipality.

[Bugarash 1893]

Didint even have to wait a few more days,the results about the third quarter are here:


2012

I-III 5.307 / 5.771 -464

II-III 5.659 / 4.890 +769

III-III 6.309 / 4.534 +1.775

Total : 17.275 / 15.195 +2.080


2011

I-III 5.632 / 5.283 +349

II-III 5.577 / 4.745 +832

III-III 6.108 / 4.350 +1.758

Total : 17.317 / 14.378 +2.939

[Bugarash 1893]

Bitola is the worst,at least from the big municipalities.

For the first 9 months of 2012,Bitola has a natural decrease of -305 people.

Births/Deaths

I-III 204/380 - 176

II-III 228/326 - 98

III-III 249/280 -31

And thats together with the albanians,gypsies and turks.

This are the stats for the 2008-2011 period where the ethnic affiliation is included:

Bitola Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011


Macedonians

757 / 1.083 -326

760 / 1.027 -267

785 / 1.071 -286

705/1.092 -385


Albanians

65 / 37 +28

79 / 36 +43

45 / 34 +11

64 / 22 +42


Roma

80 / 14 +66

113 / 23 +90

121 / 18 +103

82 / 24 +58


Vlachs

1 / 5 -4

1 / 10 -9

2 / 12 -10

4 / 9 -5

If a wonder doesnt happen in the last 3 months of the year,the macedonians could have a fall of about 450-500 people in one year!

In 2002,there were 94,538 macedonians in Bitola Municipality-the second largest municipality in Macedonia after Skopje and the second largest city in Macedonia,or at least they were in 2002.

[Bugarash 1893]

It is interesting about the gypsies...

If many gypsies in Eastern Macedonia declare to be turks,in places like Bitola and Prilep there are many gypsies who arent in the records,so called ghost souls.

There is just no way to have an average 100 gypsies being born per year while on the last census the number of gypsies in Bitola was 2000!

[iNird]

The resources and monuments found in the albanian areas of Macedonia:



So,majority of the tourist,economic,cultural,natural capacities of Macedonia are located in albanian populated regions.

This leads us to the conlusion that if the albanian part is separated from Macedonia,the rest will have no choice but to unite with Bulgaria.

Mavrovo park albanian area? Galicinik village? In regards to tourism i believe the majority of it is in either Skopje and Southwestern Macedonis (probably ohrid.) Skopje, Ohrid and probably Mavrovo make up the bulk of the tourism in Macedonia (predominately Mako areas) its not like anyone would want to visit Tetova or Gostivar lol

[Bugarash 1893]

Galicnik is a deserted village...

Mavrovo and Rostushe Municipality had a population of about 8000 on the last census.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/Map_of_Mavrovo_i_Rostu%C5%A1a_Municipality.svg

2002 CENSUS:


Macedonians: 50,46% 4 349-almost all of them Torbesh and even some assimilated christian albanians

Turks: 31.10% 2 680-probably most of them Torbesh

Albanians: 17.21% 1 483

[The.Mask]

But Mavrovo and Rostushe are almost inhabited areas. There are some torbeshi villages and in Mavrovo some market/restaurant near the road nothing more, Gostivar's villages are Albanians and Dibër (Debar) is definitly an albanian city.

[ALSh]

Didint even have to wait a few more days,the results about the third quarter are here:

Are these figures only for macedonians or for macedonians and Albanians combined ?

[Bugarash 1893]

Are these figures only for macedonians or for macedonians and Albanians combined ?

Those are results from all combained.
Macedonians,Albanians,Turks,Roma,Bosniaks...

But looking back on the past few years in details we can figure out rougly who is how much.

[Bugarash 1893]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/da/MKD_muni_nonn%28Studenicani%29.png

Studenichani Municipality resumes braking records.

This is probably the only municipality from the ones that are increasing that isnt in stagnation but there is a constant trend of growth,over here we have a higher and higher,year by year increase in births and as a total.

Maybe this municipality has good conditions to keep this birth rate so high because it is close to a large city-Skopje and it is a mountain area but still this municipality shows what would the birth rate of all of the albanianpopulated areas be if there is a low immigration rate.

The macedonians in this municipality on the last census were 1,8%.
Making it one of the municipalities with one of the lowest shares of macedonians.

The total population of the municipality is about 20,000 people.

For the first 9 months of this year,Studenichani has the following results

Births/Deaths


408 / 80 +328

Just to show you more plastic how large this birth rate is I will compare it with the CBR-(which is a measurment for birth rate,for the ones not so into demographics:)) of Syria.

Even for 9 months of the year,Studenichani already has a fertility rate of 20,0 CBR!

Syria currently has a fertility rate of 23.9 CBR!

[mysticism]

^I heard most Albs in this district are actually Gypsies, is this true?

[Bugarash 1893]

^I heard most Albs in this district are actually Gypsies, is this true?

No,no gypsies there.

In the early 90's the albanians,in big majority had a higher birth rate than gypsies!

I would even say much higher!

I made a previous comperasion about it,in the early 90's,on the balkans we had more albanian children were being born than serbian and croatian combained!

*And I do mean all serbs and croats on the balkans!

Looking back at that period I would say the albanians were increasing in number at such a rate and portion that they were on a sure path to become the largest nation on the balkans...

But now only some albanian regions like Studenichani in this case are left with a birth rate like that.Olso to note that immigration has alot to do with that situation.

The birth rate Studenichani has is higher than Shuto Orizari-gypsy district of Skopje!

[Bugarash 1893]

Birth rate in Kosovo in 1988 was 30.4 CBR.
The current CBR of Pakistan is 36.6,I mean we're talking about a comperasion with Pakistan here!!

[Grizzly]

Birth rate in Kosovo in 1988 was 30.4 CBR.
The current CBR of Pakistan is 36.6,I mean we're talking about a comperasion with Pakistan here!!

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m2bvt1ivba1qh15sno1_500.gif

[mysticism]

No,no gypsies there.

In the early 90's the albanians,in big majority had a higher birth rate than gypsies!

I would even say much higher!

I made a previous comperasion about it,in the early 90's,on the balkans we had more albanian children were being born than serbian and croatian combained!

*And I do mean all serbs and croats on the balkans!

Looking back at that period I would say the albanians were increasing in number at such a rate and portion that they were on a sure path to become the largest nation on the balkans...

But now only some albanian regions like Studenichani in this case are left with a birth rate like that.Olso to note that immigration has alot to do with that situation.

The birth rate Studenichani has is higher than Shuto Orizari-gypsy district of Skopje!

Well the worse the living standards, usually higher the birthrate. that's normal. Albs were living in filth back then.

Can u provide a pic of the alb mayor of studenicani or albs from there? There's word that lots of muslim gypsies in maco identify as albs.

[Bugarash 1893]

Well the worse the living standards, usually higher the birthrate. that's normal. Albs were living in filth back then.

Can u provide a pic of the alb mayor of studenicani or albs from there? There's word that lots of muslim gypsies in maco identify as albs.

Not really...
Some nations are just backwards in terms of the demographic evolution.

And you have another side,Sweden for example is much more advanced than Croatia or Serbia and still Sweden has natural increase while Croatia and Serbia have a decrease.

Living standard doesnt always dictate the birth rate.

Demographic evolution of albanians are currently about 30-40 years back than the others on the balkans...

Fati Iseni-mayor of Studenichani

http://www.netpress.com.mk/vestiimages/96077/g_fati-iseni.jpg

[Anusiya]

Birth rate in Kosovo in 1988 was 30.4 CBR.
The current CBR of Pakistan is 36.6,I mean we're talking about a comperasion with Pakistan here!!

Perhaps they are organizing an invasion or something. :eek::D

[Bugarash 1893]

Comperasion between Shuto-Orizari-majority gypsy municipality and Studenichani-majority albanian municipality.

According to the 2002 census:


Shuto Orizari has a population of 18.907

Studenichani has 17.246

Births/Deaths for the first 9 months of this year:


Shuto Orizari 374 / 137 +237

Studenichani 408 / 80 +328

Gypsies would have had a higher increase but they just have a very high death rate, infant mortality rate included.

Most gypsies are dying before the age of 50.

Their overall mortality rate is on african levels.

[mysticism]

Not really...
Some nations are just backwards in terms of the demographic evolution.

And you have another side,Sweden for example is much more advanced than Croatia or Serbia and still Sweden has natural increase while Croatia and Serbia have a decrease.

Living standard doesnt always dictate the birth rate.

Demographic evolution of albanians are currently about 30-40 years back than the others on the balkans...

Fati Iseni-mayor of Studenichani

http://www.netpress.com.mk/vestiimages/96077/g_fati-iseni.jpg

That's of course due to the Arab-Turk communities in Sweden. Who live in projects and shoot babies out like cannon fire.

Birthrate in Albania has decreased to normal levels, Alb birthrate in Montenegro is on par with the other ethnic groups there. Even Kosovo birthrates have dropped since the war. Allegedly today Serbs in Kosovo have higher birthrates than the K-Albs.

It's obviously strongly correlated with living standards.

[Bugarash 1893]

That's of course due to the Arab-Turk communities in Sweden. Who live in projects and shoot babies out like cannon fire.

You overestimate those muslim immigrants...


Birthrate in Albania has decreased to normal levels, Alb birthrate in Montenegro is on par with the other ethnic groups there. Even Kosovo birthrates have dropped since the war.


The main reason for the fall of the birth rate in Albania and Kosovo is immigration.Thats the number one reason.

I mean only in Italy you have 566.684 people holding albanian passports.In Greece 443,550.

Olso Switzerland,Germany...


Allegedly today Serbs in Kosovo have higher birthrates than the K-Albs.

LOL
Kosovo serbs really do have higher birth rates than serbs in Serbia.
But cant compare them with the albanian.

[Bugarash 1893]

Here is what I was talking about...

If it wasnt for the high albanian immigration rate,right now we would have had a situation where albanians would be about 40% of the total population,dangerously approaching to take the lead of the macedonians..

Now,there is a graph showing the countries they are born in but I cant show the entire thing right now.I can just say that 95% of them are born in Switzerland,Italy,Germany,Austria and Belgium.

Here are some of the majority albanian municipalities in Macedonia,as well as some municipalities with a big albanian minority.

Olso stats from the two majority turkish municipalities and one majority gypsy municipality.

Children born abroad according to the municipality from where they come from:


Saraj 83

Shuto Orizari 81

Chair 67

Arahinovo 27

Bogovinje 188

Vrapsihte 219

Gostivar 506

Debar 109

Zhelino 154

Zajas 100

Kichevo 75

Kumanovo 205

Lipkovo 148

Oslomej 69

Plasnica 47

Struga 372

Studenichani 44

Tetovo 307

Tearce 94

Centar Zhupa 93

The rough number is 3.107 new births in 2011 from the municipalities shown above.

Thats 3.107 births from which a huge majority are Albanians,then at a lower rate Turks and Gypsies,at a even lower rate Torbesh and at the lowest/insignificant rate Macedonians.

Just to show you have big this number is I will compare it with the total albanian births in Macedonia for 2011 which was 7.707 births.

[mysticism]

You overestimate those muslim immigrants...

Not really, they're a huge chunk of the Swedish demographics and have a disproportionately larger birthrate than the rest of europe (including albanians), which equalizes the Swedish birthrate to what it is.



The main reason for the fall of the birth rate in Albania and Kosovo is immigration.Thats the number one reason.

It is also less births and more deaths. :rolleyes: Modernization has come to Albania since the 00's, and it's affecting the urban albanian woman. Just like any 1st/2nd world nation.


I mean only in Italy you have 566.684 people holding albanian passports.In Greece 443,550.

Olso Switzerland,Germany...
Irrelevant. Large-scale Alb migrations to Greece/US/Italy/etc were in the 90s, when the domestic Alb/KS birthrate was at its highest.


LOL
Kosovo serbs really do have higher birth rates than serbs in Serbia.
But cant compare them with the albanian.

K-Serbs have on average today 3-4 children, K-Albs 2-3....check the records :rolleyes:

[dralos]

give the source turkovic

[Adrian]

K-Serbs have on average today 3-4 children, K-Albs 2-3....check the records :rolleyes:

Any source?

[Bugarash 1893]

Not really, they're a huge chunk of the Swedish demographics and have a disproportionately larger birthrate than the rest of europe (including albanians), which equalizes the Swedish birthrate to what it is.

Nope.
If you were right and I was wrong In saying Scandinavian nations have a positive birth rate and thats mostly thanks to the native population...then how do you explain the natural increase in Iceland?

No large muslim immigration there...


It is also less births and more deaths. :rolleyes: Modernization has come to Albania since the 00's, and it's affecting the urban albanian woman. Just like any 1st/2nd world nation.

Irrelevant. Large-scale Alb migrations to Greece/US/Italy/etc were in the 90s, when the domestic Alb/KS birthrate was at its highest.

Births


1990

Albania 82 125

Serbia 90 590

2000

Albania 78 435

Serbia 50 077

2009

Albania 29 189

Serbia 70 299

Albania has a decrease of almost 300% while Serbia of about 25%.

Sorry but there is no way such a decrease in births can happen without large immigration.


K-Serbs have on average today 3-4 children, K-Albs 2-3....check the records :rolleyes:

Dont see how can Serbs be in a better position than Albanians now when they werent in the pre-war period the 90's-when the most vital serbian population was still there.

CBR of albanians is higher than the one of serbs during the entire 90's.

Kosovo Births/Deaths


1990
Albanians : 47.865 - 5.840

Serbs : 3.458 - 1.437


1991
Albanians : 45.313 - 6.432

Serbs : 3.368 - 1.324


1992
Albanians : 38.511 - 6.038

Serbs : 2.862 - 1.242


1993
Albanians : 38.263 - 5.888

Serbs : 2.844 - 1.211


1994
Albanians : 37.672 - 5.784

Serbs : 2.800 - 1.190


1995
Albanians : 38.822 - 5.749

Serbs : 2.885 - 2.030


1996
Albanians : 39.918 - 5.482

Serbs : 2.967 - 2.008


1997
Albanians : 37.212 - 6.506

Serbs : 2.766 - 1.339


1998
Albanians : 36.324 - 6.450

Serbs : 2.463 - 1.295

[Geni]

Balkan paranoia.. :(:( ..Albania recognizes and has no territorial claims towards Macedonia.Albania is not exspansionist...

[Bugarash 1893]

No,but albanians that live in Macedonia want to become an constitutional element dues turning Macedonia into Bosnia 2 where there are 3 constitutional nations.

That would practically mean that Albanians will have real influence in e states.

[Anusiya]

No,but albanians that live in Macedonia want to become an constitutional element dues turning Macedonia into Bosnia 2 where there are 3 constitutional nations.

That would practically mean that Albanians will have real influence in e states.

Yeah so what? They comprise about 30% of FYROM and you want them to have no word in what is going on? Even Skanderbeg's statue is situated in Skopje. Careful, because they are going to start crying to uncle Sam again! :D

[Bugarash 1893]

I was just checking the demographic flows in Eastern Macedonia.
And I can say WOW!

I was looking at the municipality of Radovish...
In this municipality the Turks are pretty isolated,they are of the Yuruk tribe which is known for living nomad style of life.
That explains the high birth rate.

We olso have Gypsies but their real number is impossible to find because many declare to be Turks and probably Macedonians.

-That was olso pointed out to me by a turk from on of those villages around Radovish who went to the university with me...He told me many Gypsies tend to declare turkish nationality...

Studenichani nothing,Turks and Gypsies here have a higher birth rate than the population in the Studenichani municipality.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/MKD_muni_nonn%28radovish%29.png

According to the 2002 census:


Macedonians 23.752 84,1%
Turks 4.061 14,4%
Roma 271 1,0%

Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011


Macedonians

234/236
267/236
231/252
201/239


Turks

75/20
93/20
119/17
95/30


Roma

22/2
6/4
9/1
14/2

If we say that all of the declared Macedonians are real Macedonians and not a number that includes Gypsies,even then 15% Turks and Gypsies hold 1/3 of the births in this municipality!

Around 4,500 Turks and Gypsies have 50% the births almost 24,000 Macedonians have!

[Bugarash 1893]

About the number of Gypsies...

There is no way the entire municipality to have 271 declared Gypsies on the 2002 census...and we do know there is a strong turkish minority here,so the 4000 number looks realistic.

So that would mean most Gypsies declare macedonian nationality!

According to the 2002 census:


19.946 people declared to be Orthodox Christian,Muslims were 4.341.

This leaves room to notice that there are Gypsies who declared to be Macedonians but refused to state their religious affiliation...

This cant be proven with stats but Its just a guess that makes sense.

And one more thing:


In the age group of children from 0-4 years of age.
983 are Orthodox and 460 are Muslim!

[ALSh]

the process of decreasing the number of population have touched all europe,but the western countries can manage the problem thanks to emigration,meanwhile balcan countries decrease and decrease.

[Anusiya]

Bugarash, you are in yet another bad trip!

[iNird]

About the number of Gypsies...

There is no way the entire municipality to have 271 declared Gypsies on the 2002 census...and we do know there is a strong turkish minority here,so the 4000 number looks realistic.

So that would mean most Gypsies declare macedonian nationality!

According to the 2002 census:



This leaves room to notice that there are Gypsies who declared to be Macedonians but refused to state their religious affiliation...

This cant be proven with stats but Its just a guess that makes sense.

And one more thing:

Supposedly in the area my parents are from the gypsies identify as "macedonian." I have heard some Macedonians claim Albanians pressure gypsies to be counted as Albanian.

Either way the gypsy figure is underrepresented....

[Bugarash 1893]

There is a albanized subgroup of Gypsies in Macedonia.
But they declare to be Ashkali not Albanians.
They speak albanian...

3,713 people declared to be Ashkali on the 2002 census.

Roma in Macedonia from census to census


1981 43,223 2.3%

1991 52,103 2.6%

1994 43,707 2.2%

2002 53,879 2.7%


There is no way their number to have stayed the same from 1991 till 2002.

20,000 Gypsies in Macedonia declare turkish,macedonian and albanian nationality.My estimate would be that all together,Gypsies in Macedonia are about 90,000.

More numerous than the Turks.

[ALSh]

Bugarash can the figures of census be manipulated ?

[Grizzly]

There is a albanized subgroup of Gypsies in Macedonia.
But they declare to be Ashkali not Albanians.
They speak albanian...

3,713 people declared to be Ashkali on the 2002 census.

Roma in Macedonia from census to census


There is no way their number to have stayed the same from 1991 till 2002.

20,000 Gypsies in Macedonia declare turkish,macedonian and albanian nationality.My estimate would be that all together,Gypsies in Macedonia are about 90,000.

More numerous than the Turks.

I actually agree with this. I also think Gypsies aren't simply counted as they don't have proper documentation, aren't taken seriously and that they live in ghettos.

As for the Turks that number is lie as well. The true number of Turks is probably half that number but we all know after the 50's with the Yugoslav gov't attempt to "dealbanize" the population many Albanians were either deported or forced to declare as Turks..

[Rron]

There is a albanized subgroup of Gypsies in Macedonia.
But they declare to be Ashkali not Albanians.
They speak albanian...
Firstly they are not albanized, since probably with albanization you mean that some process of assimilation, while they declare that they are gypsie subgroup called Ashkali or whatever this automatically exclude albanization.

Your second sentence throw away your words about those Ashkalis being albanized, bolded part

I will ask you about your statement when you said they speak Albanian, what you mean about that ? because as i know every gypsie minority in Balkan countries speak the language of natives.

[Bugarash 1893]

Bugarash can the figures of census be manipulated ?

Yes they can.

We even saw something not seen anywhere in Europe,the 2011 census in Macedonia was stopped.

The population census in Macedonia has a different and larger meaning than the censuses in other states.

In Macedonia the census is not just a normal statistic operation.
It is something from which the base of the state depends on.

It will design the future of the country.

[Alexandros]

A greater Albanian state:
Albania, Kosovo and F.Y.R.O.M have together ~6,7 million inhabitants.
From this ~6,7 million inhabitans are ~75% Albanians, ~20% Slavs, ~5% Others.
Area: ~65 000 km² (Bigger than Croatia)

A greater Bulgarian state:
On the other hand: Bulgaria and F.Y.R.O.M have together ~9,5 million inhabitans. From this ~9,5 million inhabitans are ~75% Slavs and ~25% Others (Turks, Albanians, Roma).
Area: ~136 000 km² (Like Greece)







Alexandros

[Rron]

A greater Albanian state:
Albania, Kosovo and F.Y.R.O.M have together ~6,7 million inhabitants.
From this ~6,7 million inhabitans are ~75% Albanians, ~20% Slavs, ~5% Others.
Area: ~65 000 km² (Bigger than Croatia)

Have you included here slavic part of Fyrom too or what, because it doesnt match while in Kosovo 93% of population is Albanian, in Albania 95% same as Albanian part of Fyrom, how came those 20% of slavs ?

[morski]

A greater Bulgarian state:
On the other hand: Bulgaria and F.Y.R.O.M have together ~9,5 million inhabitans. From this ~9,5 million inhabitans are ~75% Slavs and ~25% Others (Turks, Albanians, Roma).
Area: ~136 000 km² (Like Greece)







Alexandros


The Serbomans in Skopie would rather shit blood than see this happen.

[Grizzly]

Have you included here slavic part of Fyrom too or what, because it doesnt match while in Kosovo 93% of population is Albanian, in Albania 95% same as Albanian part of Fyrom, how came those 20% of slavs ?

I think he's adding all of FYROM so figure about 1mil slavs?

[Anusiya]

One question, is the term -oman, Grecoman, Serboman, Turkoman, of Germanic origin? Is it a classification done by Austrians?

[Alexandros]

Have you included here slavic part of Fyrom too or what, because it doesnt match while in Kosovo 93% of population is Albanian, in Albania 95% same as Albanian part of Fyrom, how came those 20% of slavs ?

In F.Y.R.O.M are 1,2-1,3 million Slavs. This Slavs are the 20%.







Alexandros

[Midori]

The Serbomans in Skopie would rather shit blood than see this happen.

Not everyone who doesn't want this to happen is a ''Serboman'', there are some people who simply love their country too much to give it away just like that.

[Bugarash 1893]

I actually agree with this. I also think Gypsies aren't simply counted as they don't have proper documentation, aren't taken seriously and that they live in ghettos.


Those phantoms are especially large in number in Eastern Macedonia and Bitola and Prilep.

Btw Strumica is probably the best example of Gypsies declaring to be Turks and Macedonians.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2a/MKD_muni_nonn%28Strumica%29.png

According to the 2002 census:


Macedonians 50,258 (91,91%)

Turks 3,754 (6,86%)

Roma 147 (0,26%) :D

Dont have to do alot of research into this situation,it is enough to know that the Gypsy ghetto in Strumica is called Tursko Maalo-Turkish Neighbourhood.

http://www.utrinski.com.mk/WBStorage/Articles/DB6F78074B979642AC0E7F7D626F6B1B.jpg

Or you can go in Strumica and see the situation live!
I was surprised to see that about 20% of the people I saw in the city were gypsy looking,most dressed normal,not poor like our usual picture about a Gypsy.

I can back that up with the fact that Strumica is the only municipality where the Macedonians have in general a positive growth rate.

Strumica Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011

Macedonians


519/502
567/487
556/430
497/512

[Bugarash 1893]

As for the Turks that number is lie as well. The true number of Turks is probably half that number but we all know after the 50's with the Yugoslav gov't attempt to "dealbanize" the population many Albanians were either deported or forced to declare as Turks..

We have these stats,about the albanians who were deported from Kosovo and Macedonia to Turkey in communist Yugoslav times:


19.300 Albanians in 1953.
17.500 in 1954.

According to the trend of growth from the 1950's till now,if those albanians didint left,todays they would have been around 100,000 people.


Albanians from the Kingdom of Yugoslavia deported to Turkey in the period 1919-1940 - 215.412.

Those 215.412 albanians,according to the trend of growth they have had from the period they were deported through almost a centure after that,now they would have numbered up to 1 million people!

Albanians lost a huge part of their nation due to those deportations...

And those numbers can be even larger because in 1912-1919 period we have one big wave of albanian immigration/deportation towards Turkey...

[ALSh]

We have these stats,about the albanians who were deported from Kosovo and Macedonia to Turkey in communist Yugoslav times:



According to the trend of growth from the 1950's till now,if those albanians didint left,todays they would have been around 100,000 people.


Those 215.412 albanians,according to the trend of growth they have had from the period they were deported through almost a centure after that,now they would have numbered up to 1 million people!

Albanians lost a huge part of their nation due to those deportations...

And those numbers can be even larger because in 1912-1919 period we have one big wave of albanian immigration/deportation towards Turkey...

yeh,thats true,and thats why cities like monastir(bitola),ohrid,veles,prilep which were populated no less than 90% albanian,now are 3-4%.

[Alexandros]

...

Albanians lost a huge part of their nation due to those deportations...
...

At present time its the same thnig with the Albanians.
Look at Greece (0,5), Germany (0,3), Italy (0,5) and Switzerland. (0,2)
= 1,5 modern Albanians outside Albanian speaking area
Greece lost huge part of population too, but this is another topic.




Alexandros

[Bugarash 1893]

Greece lost huge part of population too, but this is another topic.

Alexandros

Greece olso gained a huge population of nongreek origin.

Those Asia Minor refugees werent all greek.
There were all sorts of nations,including alot of Armenians-today fully hellenized.

[ALSh]

At present time its the same thnig with the Albanians.
Look at Greece (0,5), Germany (0,3), Italy (0,5) and Switzerland. (0,2)
= 1,5 modern Albanians outside Albanian speaking area
Greece lost huge part of population too, but this is another topic.




Alexandros

This is different coz this migration after 1990 was done because of economic difficulty,while the deportation in turkey was done for ethnic cleasing purpuse.

[Archduke]

yeh,thats true,and thats why cities like monastir(bitola),ohrid,veles,prilep which were populated no less than 90% albanian,now are 3-4%.

Bullshit, these cities were never had Albanian majority

[ALSh]

Bullshit, these cities were never had Albanian majority

yeh they had,but i dont have intention to bother myself searching for facts :D
Bugarash perhaps can help

[Grizzly]

Bullshit, these cities were never had Albanian majority

I don't think Veles or Prilip ever had a large Albanian presence but I do know Bitola(Monastir) always had a large Albanian presence. Look at the 1912 demographics..

publication from December 21, 1912 in the Belgian magazine Ons Volk Ontwaakt (Our Nation Awakes) estimated 747,000 inhabitants:[7]
Christian Bulgarians - 331,000
Muslim Albanians - 219,000
Orthodox Vlachs - 65,000
Orthodox Greeks - 62,000
Mixed - 35,000
Muslim Bulgarians - 24,000
Muslim Turks - 11,500
The Greeks were part of the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople, while the Bulgarians were part of the Bulgarian Exarchate.

And don't forget alot of Orthodox Albanians were assimilated...

[iNird]

According to the trend of growth from the 1950's till now,if those albanians didint left,todays they would have been around 100,000 people.



It was much more than the figure you posted. Some turkish figures put the amount over 150,000.

Just look at the census from 1948 to 1953.

In 1948, there were 197,603 registered Albanians (17.1%) and 95,940 registered Turks (8.3%).

In 1953, there were 162,524 registered Albanians (12.4%) and 203,928 registered Turks. (15.6%).

There was a huge Albanian decrease and a huge Turkish increase (if you wanted to immigrate to Turkey you had to declare Turkish ethnicity.)

Point being if these people stayed the Albanians would probably be majority today...

Also see this:


This policy encouraging what can only be described as "cleansing" was continued under communist Yugoslavia in the 1950's and 1960's through handshake deals with Turkey whereby anwhere between 80,000 and 150,000 'Turks" left Yugloslavia via Macedonia and Bulgaria for Turkey. Many were not in fact Turks at all nor did they speak Turkish, but were Albanians or Macedonian Muslims who took advantage of the offer to escape further persecution in Yugoslavia.


http://books.google.com/books?id=YVPshBLnW_cC&pg=PA49&lpg=PA49&dq=there+are+80,000+to+150,000+albanians+turkey&source=bl&ots=EcDfAwhX_a&sig=ek_wkVRsxPvmcKg6qI732la5tEc&hl=en&sa=X&ei=P5_tT4WrIK_K0AGIxdj1DQ&ved=0CEoQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=there%20are%2080%2C000%20to%20150%2C000%20albani ans%20turkey&f=false

[Grizzly]

We have these stats,about the albanians who were deported from Kosovo and Macedonia to Turkey in communist Yugoslav times:



According to the trend of growth from the 1950's till now,if those albanians didint left,todays they would have been around 100,000 people.


Those 215.412 albanians,according to the trend of growth they have had from the period they were deported through almost a centure after that,now they would have numbered up to 1 million people!

Albanians lost a huge part of their nation due to those deportations...

And those numbers can be even larger because in 1912-1919 period we have one big wave of albanian immigration/deportation towards Turkey...

No doubt Albanians would've been a majority in Macedonia now. Would've been Kosovo 2.0

Thanks for recognizing though.. I've come across alot of people who simply deny these facts and claim that the Albanians that left were actually Turks instead but we all know that's pure propaganda.

[Alexandros]

Greece olso gained a huge population of nongreek origin.

Those Asia Minor refugees werent all greek.
There were all sorts of nations,including alot of Armenians-today fully hellenized.

The majority of this people was 100% Greek.
Eastern-Thracians, Pontians, Ionians and Bulgarian Greeks are ethnic Greek people.




Alexandros

[iNird]

Bullshit, these cities were never had Albanian majority

Actually most of my family members speak of the large Albanian presence in Manastir during the 50's even up till the 70's. Ofc there opinion is bit one sided but there's not much of a doubt that there was a large presence. Today is a different story especially with the large Aegean Slavs (or whatever you want to call them) influx from Greece.

[Archduke]

I don't think Veles or Prilip ever had a large Albanian presence but I do know Bitola(Monastir) always had a large Albanian presence. Look at the 1912 demographics..


And don't forget alot of Orthodox Albanians were assimilated...

Monastir Vilayet included territory which was part of the Albanian ethnic land, that's why you had Albanian minority. The cities of Bitla, Veles or Prilep never had big Albanian presence.

Monastir Vilayet

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fd/Monastir_Vilayet%2C_Ottoman_Empire_%281900%29.svg

[iNird]

Monastir is an undistinguished, motley sort of town of some 60,000 inhabitants, 14,000 of them Greek, 10,000 of them Bulgarian, four or five thousand Albanian, two or three thousand Jew, and the rest Turk.


http://books.google.com/books?id=taZBAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA206&lpg=PA206&dq=Monastir+is+an+undistinguished,+motley+sort+of+ town+of+some+60,000+inhabitants,+14,000+of+them+Gr eek,+10,000+of+them+Bulgarian,+four+or+five+thousa nd+Albanian,+two+or+three+thousand+Jew,+and+the+re st+Turk.&source=bl&ots=4-T1DdJyAK&sig=scFsvueder7FFQdFABgi1FcpZ0o&hl=en&sa=X&ei=wVayUKhRjJrJAZ7GgXA&ved=0CCwQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=Monastir%20is%20an%20undistinguished%2C%20motley %20sort%20of%20town%20of%20some%2060%2C000%20inhab itants%2C%2014%2C000%20of%20them%20Greek%2C%2010%2 C000%20of%20them%20Bulgarian%2C%20four%20or%20five %20thousand%20Albanian%2C%20two%20or%20three%20tho usand%20Jew%2C%20and%20the%20rest%20Turk.&f=false

[Archduke]

http://books.google.com/books?id=taZBAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA206&lpg=PA206&dq=Monastir+is+an+undistinguished,+motley+sort+of+ town+of+some+60,000+inhabitants,+14,000+of+them+Gr eek,+10,000+of+them+Bulgarian,+four+or+five+thousa nd+Albanian,+two+or+three+thousand+Jew,+and+the+re st+Turk.&source=bl&ots=4-T1DdJyAK&sig=scFsvueder7FFQdFABgi1FcpZ0o&hl=en&sa=X&ei=wVayUKhRjJrJAZ7GgXA&ved=0CCwQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=Monastir%20is%20an%20undistinguished%2C%20motley %20sort%20of%20town%20of%20some%2060%2C000%20inhab itants%2C%2014%2C000%20of%20them%20Greek%2C%2010%2 C000%20of%20them%20Bulgarian%2C%20four%20or%20five %20thousand%20Albanian%2C%20two%20or%20three%20tho usand%20Jew%2C%20and%20the%20rest%20Turk.&f=false

Just look which is the most numerious ethnicity there and you will understand that this data is wrong. Greeks were never 16 000 in Bitola. This was based on Greek sources.

I recommend you to use only Ottoman censuses.

http://books.google.bg/books/about/Ethnographie_des_vilayets_d_Andrinople.html?id=IG0 vAQAAMAAJ&redir_esc=y

[Alexandros]

Albanian ''Eagle-March'' in Shkupi/Skopje ... I thnik from today
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KELri5qiTjY




Alexandros

[iNird]

Just look which is the most numerious ethnicity there and you will understand that this data is wrong. Greeks were never 16 000 in Bitola. This was based on Greek sources.

I recommend you to use only Ottoman censuses.

http://books.google.bg/books/about/Ethnographie_des_vilayets_d_Andrinople.html?id=IG0 vAQAAMAAJ&redir_esc=y

They should be used as a reference but Ottoman Census was based on religion and church affiliations so you won't find Albanians mentioned at all. Not to mention only men were counted and they based it on people serving in the army or paying taxes.

So it should be used in context.

[Archduke]

They should be used as a reference but Ottoman Census was based on religion and church affiliations so you won't find Albanians mentioned at all. Not to mention only men were counted and they based it on people serving in the army or paying taxes.

So it should be used in context.

Alboz were mentioned. According to the census, in Bitolya there are 17 000 Bulgarians, 6 000 Muslims, 2 800 Vlachs, 1000 Alboz and 2 500 Jews (Some Alboz were counted as "Muslim").

The most accurate census was made by Vasil Kanchov (he was personally all over Macedonia). The Ottoman census is very close to the numbers of Kanchov and Ottomans are suposed to be neutral.

[iNird]

Alboz were mentioned. According to the census, in Bitolya there are 17 000 Bulgarians, 6 000 Muslims, 2 800 Vlachs, 1000 Alboz and 2 500 Jews (Some Alboz were counted as "Muslim").

The most accurate census was made by Vasil Kanchov (he was personally all over Macedonia). The Ottoman census is very close to the numbers of Kanchov and Ottomans are suposed to be neutral.

Where? Which page?

As for Vasil Kanchov, he was Bugarophile so that should be taken into consideration, and I thought the Ottoman census only took into account men (did not take into account children and women), did Vasil Kanchov do the same since the numbers were very close?

[morski]

Where? Which page?

As for Vasil Kanchov, he was Bugarophile so that should be taken into consideration, and I thought the Ottoman census only took into account men, did Vasil Kanchov do the same since the numbers were very close?

:laugh:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasil_Kanchov

[iNird]

:laugh:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasil_Kanchov

I've heard of him and read some of his stuff (well whatever has been posted in English.) I thought his estimates were based on the people living there? If that is the case then how can the numbers be comparable to the Ottoman Census which are based on men only?

Maybe I'm a bit confused.

[morski]

I've heard of him and read some of his stuff (well whatever has been posted in English.) I thought his estimates were based on the people living there? If that is the case then how can the numbers be comparable to the Ottoman Census which are based on men only?

Maybe I'm a bit confused.

I'm not taking part in your argument, just reacting to Kanchov being called Bugarophile (a term used now adays in FYROM to denote someone who's not brainwashed into hysteric Bulgarophobia), when he was a Bulgarian from Vratsa.:)

[Bugarash 1893]

yeh,thats true,and thats why cities like monastir(bitola),ohrid,veles,prilep which were populated no less than 90% albanian,now are 3-4%.

Veles and Prilep never had an albanian population.
Bitola/Monastir did,but they werent even a strong minority...

Those albanians from Macedonia who were deported were mostly from the regions that today are populated by albanians...

[iNird]

I'm not taking part in your argument, just reacting to Kanchov being called Bugarophile (a term used now adays in FYROM to denote someone who's not brainwashed into hysteric Bulgarophobia), when he was a Bulgarian from Vratsa.:)

I meant in a way of pro-Bulgarian with a Bulgarian agenda sort of way. Sorry.

BTW, is there an English version of "The region of Bitola, Prespa and Ohrid"" ("Битолско, Преспа и Охридско. Пътни бележки")

[Bugarash 1893]

I don't think Veles or Prilip ever had a large Albanian presence but I do know Bitola(Monastir) always had a large Albanian presence. Look at the 1912 demographics..


And don't forget alot of Orthodox Albanians were assimilated...

Dont stick to those statistics,they never present the real number of Bulgarians.

Torbesh-Muslim Bulgarians are shown in the Muslim group.
While Bulgarians under the church of Constantinople are shown as Orthodox Greeks.

Bulgarians were a majority in Macedonia,in all Vilayets.

[Archduke]

did Vasil Kanchov do the same since the numbers were very close?

I meant that the ratio between the ethnicities in the two censuses are similar (except that Kanchov counted more Turks and less Bulgarians).

Ethnic map of Macedonia from Kanchov

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Kanchov_Macedonia_Map.jpg

[Petros Houhoulis]

I was just checking the demographic flows in Eastern Macedonia.
And I can say WOW!

I was looking at the municipality of Radovish...
In this municipality the Turks are pretty isolated,they are of the Yuruk tribe which is known for living nomad style of life.
That explains the high birth rate.

We olso have Gypsies but their real number is impossible to find because many declare to be Turks and probably Macedonians.

-That was olso pointed out to me by a turk from on of those villages around Radovish who went to the university with me...He told me many Gypsies tend to declare turkish nationality...

Studenichani nothing,Turks and Gypsies here have a higher birth rate than the population in the Studenichani municipality.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/MKD_muni_nonn%28radovish%29.png

According to the 2002 census:



Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011



If we say that all of the declared Macedonians are real Macedonians and not a number that includes Gypsies,even then 15% Turks and Gypsies hold 1/3 of the births in this municipality!

Around 4,500 Turks and Gypsies have 50% the births almost 24,000 Macedonians have!

Which means that by the time that you shall move your lard arses, the Albanians and their allies shall take over all of the country and leave absolutely nothing for you...

[Bugarash 1893]

Which means that by the time that you shall move your lard arses, the Albanians and their allies shall take over all of the country and leave absolutely nothing for you...

Turks and Gypsies are harmless...the only danger for Macedonia from within is coming from the Albanians.

Keep in mind that after us,next on the list will be Greece.:)

[Bugarash 1893]

I meant that the ratio between the ethnicities in the two censuses are similar (except that Kanchov counted more Turks and less Bulgarians).

Ethnic map of Macedonia from Kanchov

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Kanchov_Macedonia_Map.jpg

Dont want to brag about it but the Bulgarian side always showed the real situation as far as ethnographics is considered.

Unlike the Greeks who twisted up the entire picture to the slightest detail.

[Alexandros]

...

Keep in mind that after us,next on the list will be Greece.:)

This is from the demographic point of view not possible.
The difference between Kosovo, F.Y.R.O.M and Greece is that North-Western Greece are ~90% Greek inhabited.
The real ethnic Albania or Albanian speaking area ends to the south in Saranda/Sarande, Argirokastro/Gjirokaster and Himara and not in Ioannina, Parga or Corfu.
The Albanian dream of this (http://continentcontinent.cc/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/394493_251812461555804_1676870178_n-343x560.jpg) ''ethnic Albania'' is demographic not possible.
The same also applies to the small northern part of Kosovo/Kosova, region of Nish (~90% Serb/Slavic inhabited), F.Y.R.O.Mian cities like Bitola/Monastiri or Veles, South-Montenegro or Sandchack.

Modern maps: 1 (https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/46266_298157306951254_316455603_n.jpg), 2 (http://mondediplo.com/IMG/arton2039.jpg)

Old maps: 1 (http://www.giovanniarmillotta.it/albania/mappe/pop1913-1918_dardano.jpg), 2 (https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/181855_291880870912231_197024694_n.jpg)







Alexandros

[Bugarash 1893]

Lipkovo municipality almost reached the number of births for the entire 2011 in the first 9 months of 2012.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/86/MKD_muni_nonn%28Lipkovo%29.png

According to the 2002 census:


Albanians 26.360 97,4%
Macedonians 169 0,6%
Serbs 370 1,4%

2011 albanian Births/Deaths


341/149

First 9 months of this year-total Births/Deaths

*Albanians of course probably account about 99,9% of the births


328/113

[Anusiya]

Turks and Gypsies are harmless...the only danger for Macedonia from within is coming from the Albanians.

Keep in mind that after us,next on the list will be Greece.:)

I don't think so, but dreamers gonna dream. :)

[ALSh]

Lipkovo municipality almost reached the number of births for the entire 2011 in the first 9 months of 2012.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/86/MKD_muni_nonn%28Lipkovo%29.png

According to the 2002 census:



2011 albanian Births/Deaths



First 9 months of this year-total Births/Deaths

*Albanians of course probably account about 99,9% of the births
Hmmm,its seems that the high emigration rate of Albanians isn't affecting to much the birthrate :coffee:

[Bugarash 1893]

The only albanian municipalities really affected by immigration are Zajas and Oslomej,but albanians in them are secured because they are almost 100% of the total population.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/72/MKD_muni_nonn%28Zajas%29.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/MKD_muni_nonn%28Oslomej%29.png

[iNird]

The only albanian municipalities really affected by immigration are Zajas and Oslomej,but albanians in them are secured because they are almost 100% of the total population.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/72/MKD_muni_nonn%28Zajas%29.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/MKD_muni_nonn%28Oslomej%29.png

Well it will play a factor when/if those municipalities join Kicevo. But the vast majority of those emigrants live in EU countries and are a few hours via plane.

[Bugarash 1893]

Half of the albanian population od Zajas and Oslomej is in immigration in Switzerland.

They will need to bring planes in for sure,if they want to be certain.It will be a close tie in Kicevo...

It will olso depend on how the Turks and Gypsies will vote...Their parties have traditional coalitions with macedonian parties but maybe Turks and Gypsies will vote for the Muslim Albanian candidate...

Here is the situation in the two majority macedonian municipalities that will be added to Kicevo:

Vraneshtica Municipality

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/11/MKD_muni_nonn%28Vraneshtica%29.png

According to the 2002 census:


Macedonians 1033 - 78,1%

Turks 276 - 20,9%

Albanians 10 - 0,76%

Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011


Macedonians

6/25
6/22
3/31
6/25


Turks

2/2
6/2
5/3
2/4


Albanians

1/0
0/0
1/0
2/0

[iNird]

It will olso depend on how the Turks and Gypsies will vote...Their parties have traditional coalitions with macedonian parties but maybe Turks and Gypsies will vote for the Muslim Albanian candidate...

[/IMG]

According to the 2002 census:



Births/Deaths 2008-2009-2010-2011

Ye I read about their importance, in the last two parliamentary election VMRO has had a coalition with Democratic Party of Turks of Macedonia and Union of Roma in Macedonia, and I guess one would assume these two groups would vote against the idea.

PS these Turks are Torbesh. :D

And the result will be very close. Below I did an analysis using the results of the 2011 Parliamentary Election and using those results, Kicevo, Drugovo, Zajas, Oslomej and Vranestica would not join in a single municipality using the assumption people that voted for a Macedonian party (or coalition with a Macedonian Party) would vote for against the combination and those that voted for an Albanian party would be for the combination. Combination referring to the joining of Kicevo, Drugovo, Zajas, Olsomej and Vranestica into a single municipality.

http://uploadpic.org/storage/2011/RYfQmrKDbdN8jQ9BgaP5aRfgD.png

The turnouts for these areas are:

Zajas - 38%
Oslomej - 40%
Kicevo - 57%
Vranestica - 53%
Drugovo - 68%

As you can see Albanian dominated areas had very low turnout compared to Macedonians ones in the 2011 election. Albanian parties will definitely need to increase voter turnout by either using the diaspora vote or getting their own people to go out and vote.

[Bugarash 1893]

Drugovo and Vraneshtica have a much older population...
Generally Macedonians have a much upper aged population than Albanians but Drugovo and Vranesthica are even older than that...

And if your under 18,you cant vote...so thats another side of weakness.

You will need like...50 planes from the diaspora.

Or make some kind of a coalition with the Turkish and Gypsy parties...

And there is another way,if SDSM had a higher support among Macedonians,and if they and VMRO-DPMNE take part separately while the Albanians go in with a comon candidate...that would be a large chance for an albanian to be elected as mayor.

[iNird]

Drugovo and Vraneshtica have a much older population...
Generally Macedonians have a much upper aged population than Albanians but Drugovo and Vranesthica are even older than that...

And if your under 18,you cant vote...so thats another side of weakness.

You will need like...50 planes from the diaspora.

Or make some kind of a coalition with the Turkish and Gypsy parties...

And there is another way,if SDSM had a higher support among Macedonians,and if they and VMRO-DPMNE take part separately while the Albanians go in with a comon candidate...that would be a large chance for an albanian to be elected as mayor.

Voter turnout only refers to elgible voters, the people you mentioned should not be used in the computation.

I'm only referring to the unification of the municipalities. Electing a mayor is much more difficult task if it only counts the votes from the current municipality of Kicevo.

[iNird]

Looking back at the 2011 election, the numbers don't really add up.

Vranestica had a total population of 1,322 people in 2002. Yet there are 1,488 eligible voters for the 2011 election! And that's with a decreasing population. The number indicates there are no kids in this municipality and it looks like they are counting dead voters lol.

Drugovo had a total population of 3,249 in 2002 and 2,776 elgible voters in 2011. This seems a bit more believable than Vranestica lol but still this is with a decreasing population.

Oslomej had a total population of 10,420 in 2002 and 8,646 eligible voters in 2011. This is also a bit off but not as bad as the the other two.

Zajas had a total population of 11,605 in 2002 and 9,971 elgible voters in 2011. This is also a bit off because like Oslomej it means some thing like 80% of the municipality is eligible to vote.

Now finally Kicevo had a total population of 30,138 in 2002 and 27,124 elgible voters in 2011. Again this seems off. But what is more off, Albanians were around 9k in 2002 yet only received 3k votes for Albanian parties in 2011.

It would be interesting to compare the eligible voters of a municipality in 2011 to the census in 2002 for each municipality . The above example shows many inconsistencies, it probably is an issue across FYROM. Maybe if i'm bored one day I might do it. :D

[Bugarash 1893]

Looking back at the 2011 election, the numbers don't really add up.

Vranestica had a total population of 1,322 people in 2002. Yet there are 1,488 eligible voters for the 2011 election! And that's with a decreasing population. The number indicates there are no kids in this municipality and it looks like they are counting dead voters lol.

Drugovo had a total population of 3,249 in 2002 and 2,776 elgible voters in 2011. This seems a bit more believable than Vranestica lol but still this is with a decreasing population.

Oslomej had a total population of 10,420 in 2002 and 8,646 eligible voters in 2011. This is also a bit off but not as bad as the the other two.

Zajas had a total population of 11,605 in 2002 and 9,971 elgible voters in 2011. This is also a bit off because like Oslomej it means some thing like 80% of the municipality is eligible to vote.

Now finally Kicevo had a total population of 30,138 in 2002 and 27,124 elgible voters in 2011. Again this seems off. But what is more off, Albanians were around 9k in 2002 yet only received 3k votes for Albanian parties in 2011.

It would be interesting to compare the eligible voters of a municipality in 2011 to the census in 2002 for each municipality . The above example shows many inconsistencies, it probably is an issue across FYROM. Maybe if i'm bored one day I might do it. :D

Thats because the voting list isnt cleared up,which of course suits the ones in power because it makes it easy for them to push through manipulations with the dead and immigrated voters.

There was a TV report,monitoring the situation in Gazi Baba municipality,Skopje...they found out that that only in that municipality there are 34 people 100+ of age still existing on the voting list,elgible to vote.:D

In 2011 the State Election Commission stated that from 2009 till then the number of the eligible voters increased from 1.792.820 to 1.835.000.

[Bugarash 1893]

Skopje region

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/06/Map_of_the_municipalities_of_Skopje_Statistical_Re gion_en.svg/744px-Map_of_the_municipalities_of_Skopje_Statistical_Re gion_en.svg.png

Total population according to the 2002 census:
578.144

Total Births/Deaths 2011:


7.799 / 5.205

Number and % according to the 2002 census.....Births/Deaths 2011.....% of Births/Deaths of the total



Macedonians: 367.413 (63,6%).....3.634 / 3.820.....(46,6% / 73,4%)

Albanians: 133.893 (23,2%).....2.960 / 796.....(38% / 15,3%)

Roma: 23.903 (4,1%).....670 / 216.....(8,6% / 4,1%)

Serbs: 18.051 (3,1%).....50 / 172.....(0,64%/ 3,3%)

Turks: 12.123 (2,1%).....156 / 53.....(2% / 1%)

Bosnians: 10.880 (1,9%).....141 / 59.....(1,8% / 1,13%)

Others: 11.881 (2,1%).....188 / 89.....(2,4% / 1,7%)

[iNird]

Bugaresh please be consistent and post births/deaths of Skopje, migration numbers would be helpful as well.

:D

[Bugarash 1893]

:thumb001:

If we take into consideration the number of Albanians on the 2002 census in the Skopje region and compare it with the current 2011 births...

We will have an albanian growth rate of 22,1 CBR in 2011 which is not possible even for the albanians.

I mean Syria has CBR 23.9 in the period 2005-2010....

That means that the number of Albanians in Skopje region is at least above 150,000.

[iNird]

:thumb001:

If we take into consideration the number of Albanians on the 2002 census in the Skopje region and compare it with the current 2011 births...

We will have an albanian growth rate of 22,1 CBR in 2011 which is not possible even for the albanians.

I mean Syria has CBR 23.9 in the period 2005-2010....

That means that the number of Albanians in Skopje region is at least above 150,000.

How did you calculate 23.9? There were 2,194 Albanians born in Skopje for 2011. According to this:

http://www.stat.gov.mk/Publikacii/2.4.12.07.pdf

2,194/133,893*1,000=16.38

[Don Arb]

I see migration of albanians worse than those numbers, mostly of albanians get married with girls living abroad, cities like Dibra, Struga, Kercov, Presa are really down, there are classrooms already with 2 or 3 students, wich was not usual for us.

[Bugarash 1893]

How did you calculate 23.9? There were 2,194 Albanians born in Skopje for 2011. According to this:

http://www.stat.gov.mk/Publikacii/2.4.12.07.pdf

2,194/133,893*1,000=16.38

Those stats that I posted arent just about the City of Skopje but the City of Skopje and the municipalities circulating around it which all together form the Skopje region or Skopje statistical region to be exact.

Albanians just in the city itself according to the 2002 census were: 103,891.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/06/Map_of_the_municipalities_of_Skopje_Statistical_Re gion_en.svg/744px-Map_of_the_municipalities_of_Skopje_Statistical_Re gion_en.svg.png

[Grizzly]

I see migration of albanians worse than those numbers, mostly of albanians get married with girls living abroad, cities like Dibra, Struga, Kercov, Presa are really down, there are classrooms already with 2 or 3 students, wich was not usual for us.

From what I've seen and read Gostivar seems to be the dividing line for Albanians. Albanians north of Gostivar don't seem to be affected by emigration and they have high birth rates and they beat the Maks and Turks by a big margin. But from Gostivar down it seems like the emigration is almost offsetting the birth rate but there still seems to be a natural increase though. I also think the stats in this thread indicate this to be true as well.

I think I asked Bugurash this question before but do you have stats on emigration in the country? Specifically for Macedonians if you can find it? Do you know if Macedonian emigration has been increasing over the years?

[iNird]

Those stats that I posted arent just about the City of Skopje but the City of Skopje and the municipalities circulating around it which all together form the Skopje region or Skopje statistical region to be exact.

Albanians just in the city itself according to the 2002 census were: 103,891.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/06/Map_of_the_municipalities_of_Skopje_Statistical_Re gion_en.svg/744px-Map_of_the_municipalities_of_Skopje_Statistical_Re gion_en.svg.png

Aha gotchya. Also interesting to note that Skopje region accounts for 38% of the Albanian births in 2011 but 26% of the total Albanian population in 2002. So I don't think the CBR is truly reflective using your analysis. There's probably have been some migrations to Skopje from other regions and natural growth over the years, so the CBR is probably closer in the teens (15-19%.) Still high compared to Western Europe.

Using your analysis of 2011 births with 2002 Census, these are the CBR for other regions:

Tetovo - 14.53
Gostivar - 9.93
Struga - 8.35
Tearce - 11.8
Zajaz - 6.1
Dibra - 11.8

And these are probably lower in reality....

[Bugarash 1893]

Using your analysis of 2011 births with 2002 Census, these are the CBR for other regions:

Tetovo - 14.53
Gostivar - 9.93
Struga - 8.35
Tearce - 11.8
Zajaz - 6.1
Dibra - 11.8

And these are probably lower in reality....

Are you using the total population of these regions to determine the CBR or you're reffering only to the albanian element?


Skopje region accounts for 38% of the Albanian births in 2011

Thats 38% of the total births in the Skopje region alone.

While macedonian births account 46,6% of the total births in the Skopje region.

[iNird]

Are you using the total population of these regions to determine the CBR or you're reffering only to the albanian element?



No only Albanian population. You can check my numbers, I might have made a mistake:

http://uploadpic.org/storage/2011/ED6qz2j6AUqCaGPLQ74u8Yuqp.png

For comparison sakes, Macedonians are:

Tetovo - 8.72
Gostivar - 9.51
Struga - 15.87
Tearce - 7.3
Zajaz- 0
Dibra - 23.79

Seems like they don't differ that much.



Thats 38% of the total births in the Skopje region alone.



I was referring to total births. So 38% of Albanian newborns are born in Skopje. The macedonian figure is similar something like 39%.

[Grizzly]

So the Mak government is offering pensions for increased birthrates?
http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2012/12/07/feature-03

Not a bad idea but do the pensions apply to Albanians as well?

[Don Arb]

So the Mak government is offering pensions for increased birthrates?
http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2012/12/07/feature-03

Not a bad idea but do the pensions apply to Albanians as well?

I thought the news may be old, but it's not. A year ago I guess Mak government wanted to vote a law which would favour only municipalities with macedonians for increasing the bearthrate and not the albanian one where we have mass emigration. This law didn;t pass,bcs of its discrimination element. Now they are doing it behind our back and from the money that albanian are paying taxes also.

WTF?! how can I consider this state as mine too? considering that albanian emigrants are bringing here millions of euros every year and with out them this bullshit country dies right away. we dont get nothing back, we still privatly invest in streets school mosques etc. I wanna cut our leaders head, they are fucking ignorants blinded by their positions and money which they never had, they are the worst thing of our people here. Fucking commie trash, your day will come.

[iNird]

I thought the news may be old, but it's not. A year ago I guess Mak government wanted to vote a law which would favour only municipalities with macedonians for increasing the bearthrate and not the albanian one where we have mass emigration. This law didn;t pass,bcs of its discrimination element. Now they are doing it behind our back and from the money that albanian are paying taxes also.

WTF?! how can I consider this state as mine too? considering that albanian emigrants are bringing here millions of euros every year and with out them this bullshit country dies right away. we dont get nothing back, we still privatly invest in streets school mosques etc. I wanna cut our leaders head, they are fucking ignorants blinded by their positions and money which they never had, they are the worst thing of our people here. Fucking commie trash, your day will come.

This isn't your state. This sort of practice has been going on since the YU times. Underrepresentation in state jobs (10 years ago the situation was even worse), inequality in public spending (look at Skopje 2014 and look at all the millions this government is squandering away on Macedonian projects) and the worst is the Albanian parties that would rather fight with each other than solve anything . Also add all these mosques being built instead of being used for more useful purposes. It's no wonder Albanians are leaving Macedonian en masse for Switzerland, Italy, etc. That is the Slavs plan. Get Albanians to leave the country but have you come back during the summer time and spend. A win win situation for them.

[Don Arb]

I've always said that I feel bad for Albanians in Macedonia because they are fucked. Just look at the government positions and you will see Albanians are underrepresented (10 years ago the situation was even worse.) Look at Skopje 2014 and look at all the millions this government is squandering away on Macedonian projects. And the worst is the Albanian parties that would rather fight with each other than solve anything . Also add all these mosques being built instead of being used for more useful purposes. It's no wonder Albanians are leaving Macedonian en masse for Switzerland, Italy, etc.

Absolutely true, the most biggest irony is when you see those fucking statues in Skopje which cost millions while near them(mostly in albanian side with infrastructure like Kandahar) are walking poor people, private taxi drivers, workers without qualification just to make their 200den per day so they can make sure their family existence. While in other albanian cities have more imigrants and they survive from their family member working abroad, now even for those emigrants have come difficult times. Albanian parties did nothing for the criminal project Skopje 2014. Hope one day while those albanians who are starving will ruin those fuckin weird statues and sell them for their daily bread.

[Bugarash 1893]

No only Albanian population. You can check my numbers, I might have made a mistake:

http://uploadpic.org/storage/2011/ED6qz2j6AUqCaGPLQ74u8Yuqp.png



The albanian CBR is too low.

Which means the number of Albanians in these municipalities is lower than the 2002 census has shown.

Only the CBR of Albanians in Tetovo seems real but I predict the number of Albanians in Tetovo is at the same level as in 2002.

Currently:

Gostivar-under 50,000 albanians for sure,I would say around 40.000-little lower than 40,000 or a little above it.
Struga-slightly above 30,000-max 32,000.
Tearce-few thousand down.
Zajaz-half of the 2002 population is currently there.
Debar-around 10,000.

These is olso another inbox as I call it in this scenario.

The decrease can be lower than thought if only the most vital element of albanians went abroad.

[Bugarash 1893]

I see migration of albanians worse than those numbers, mostly of albanians get married with girls living abroad, cities like Dibra, Struga, Kercov, Presa are really down, there are classrooms already with 2 or 3 students, wich was not usual for us.

Here are the ups and downs for the Albanians.

Firstly let me state at the start that Yes,Albanians do have a high immigration rate-higher than the macedonians BUT:

1.The number of albanians that go abroad is replaced by the natural increase.

2.Macedonians have a natural decrease.

3.Macedonians immigrate as well.

About the places you mentioned:

Prespa-you didint have a chance surviving in Prespa Municipality even if you had the CBR of Pakistan.Only albanian municipalities that are next to other albanian municipalities can survive.

Kicevo-Everything in the city and around it,from fields to stores is in albanian hand-mostly from the diaspora who invest there.Albanians still have a positive growth here.

Debar-No worries for the Albanians there because the city is lost to the albanians long time ago.Albanians still have a positive growth here.There is olso NONE christian macedonians left in Debar I remember seeing on a TV report about some event charishing an orthodox saint that was held in Debar but was banned since like 2005 because there were no orthodox macedonians left in that region to attend it.

Struga-this is the tourist capital of Albanians in Macedonia,alot albanian investments coming there...a friend of mine-from Bulgaria that visited Struga this year told me that 'the albanian influence is huge'.Albanians still have a positive growth here.

[Bugarash 1893]

Pelagonia region

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Map_of_the_municipalities_of_Pelagonia_Statistical _Region_en.svg

Total population according to the 2002 census:


238.136

Total Births/Deaths 2011:


2.309 / 3.011

Number and % according to the 2002 census.....Births/Deaths 2011.....% of Births/Deaths of the total in the Pelagonia region



Macedonians: 204.471 (85,9%).....1.581 / 2.720.....(68,5% / 90,3%)

Albanians: 11.634 (4,9%).....273 / 66.....(11,8% / 2,19%)

Roma: 7.230 (3%).....210 / 77.....( 9% / 2,55%)

Turks: 7.150 (3%).....88 / 58.....(3,8% / 1,9%)

Bosniaks: 2.380 (1%).....34 / 19.....(1,47% / 0,63%)

Vlachs: 2.307 (1%).....6 / 28.....(0,25% / 0,93%)

Serbs: 713 (0,3%).....5 / 11.....(0,21% / 0,36%)

Others: 2.251 (1%).....41 / 31.....(1,77% / 1,03%)

[iNird]

The albanian CBR is too low.

Which means the number of Albanians in these municipalities is lower than the 2002 census has shown.

Only the CBR of Albanians in Tetovo seems real but I predict the number of Albanians in Tetovo is at the same level as in 2002.

Currently:

Gostivar-under 50,000 albanians for sure,I would say around 40.000-little lower than 40,000 or a little above it.
Struga-slightly above 30,000-max 32,000.
Tearce-few thousand down.
Zajaz-half of the 2002 population is currently there.
Debar-around 10,000.

These is olso another inbox as I call it in this scenario.

The decrease can be lower than thought if only the most vital element of albanians went abroad.

It could decrease due to immigration (not to the level you predicted) but even if the numbers went down to the levels you predicted it wouldn't change the CBR that much.

In the region I am from most Albanians have a couple of kids at most. Gone are the days of marrying at 20 and having 3-4 kids. My aunt who is visiting from Macedonia even commented how she sees bigger families in the midwestern American suburb she is visiting than in macedonia lol.

[Bugarash 1893]

It could decrease due to immigration (not to the level you predicted) but even if the numbers went down to the levels you predicted it wouldn't change the CBR that much.

In the region I am from most Albanians have a couple of kids at most. Gone are the days of marrying at 20 and having 3-4 kids. My aunt who is visiting from Macedonia even commented how she sees bigger families in the midwestern American suburb she is visiting than in macedonia lol.

Albanians in Macedonia currently have a CBR of about 14-15.
Albanians in Kosovo are at 17.
From Kosovo we have a straigh fact from the census while for Macedonia this is just a guess.

My prediction is that Albanians in Macedonia currently stand at 470,000.-A 40,000 decrease from 2002.

The question now is what is the decrease of Macedonians...
Macedonians in the last 10 years have a natural decrease of about 20,000,thats for sure.

The immigration rate remains unknown.
As well as the status of the Torbesh who in 2002 stated macedonian ethnicity.

[Englisc]

You gotta love these threads that go on forever...

[iNird]

Albanians in Macedonia currently have a CBR of about 14-15.
Albanians in Kosovo are at 17.
From Kosovo we have a straigh fact from the census while for Macedonia this is just a guess.

My prediction is that Albanians in Macedonia currently stand at 470,000.

Albanian population probably grew something like 30k-50k in 10 years.

Also in the 2002 census there was an issue with something like 50k Albanians not counted because of citizenship issue. It won't go down to 470k....

[ALSh]

Fyrom goverment leaves albanians in pooverty,with the intention to emigrate.Emigration is a real problem for albanians,not only in fyrom but also in Albania and kosovo too.

[Bugarash 1893]

Olso let me add that in Pelagonia region the number of macedonians now is for sure under 200,000.

Pelagonia region

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Map_of_the_municipalities_of_Pelagonia_Statistical _Region_en.svg

Total population according to the 2002 census:


238.136

Total Births/Deaths 2011:


2.309 / 3.011

Number and % according to the 2002 census.....Births/Deaths 2011.....% of Births/Deaths of the total in the Pelagonia region



Macedonians: 204.471 (85,9%).....1.581 / 2.720.....(68,5% / 90,3%)

Albanians: 11.634 (4,9%).....273 / 66.....(11,8% / 2,19%)

Roma: 7.230 (3%).....210 / 77.....( 9% / 2,55%)

Turks: 7.150 (3%).....88 / 58.....(3,8% / 1,9%)

Bosniaks: 2.380 (1%).....34 / 19.....(1,47% / 0,63%)

Vlachs: 2.307 (1%).....6 / 28.....(0,25% / 0,93%)

Serbs: 713 (0,3%).....5 / 11.....(0,21% / 0,36%)

Others: 2.251 (1%).....41 / 31.....(1,77% / 1,03%)


Albanian population probably grew something like 30k-50k in 10 years.

Also in the 2002 census there was an issue with something like 50k Albanians not counted because of citizenship issue. It won't go down to 470k....

The albanian population grew about 50-60,000 in the last 10 years but the question is how accurate was the 2002 census.

I think that botn nonexisting(not present in the country) macedonians and albanians were added.

And olso the CBR doesnt leave us room to say that the number of Albanians in Macedonia is higher than 500,000.

[Alexandros]

BashBugarashAbsinth,

ist this map right or not?
http://i252.photobucket.com/albums/hh13/tomba17_photos/Etnicke%20Zemljovide/Makedonija/Sporedba20po20godini205020procenti2.jpg





Alexandros

[Bugarash 1893]

Thats from the time of the referendum in 2004 or 2005 I think...

Situation in 2013

http://i846.photobucket.com/albums/ab30/Makedonia5000/Albanians_in_macedonia2002_03-2.png

[Alexandros]

Thats from the time of the referendum in 2004 or 2005 I think...

Situation in 2013

http://i846.photobucket.com/albums/ab30/Makedonia5000/Albanians_in_macedonia2002_03-2.png

I this your own graphic or a wikipedia-graphic? And what is the source of the data?
I think no data exist for create a current ethnographic map, because the last census was boycotted.
But thank you for information.




Alexandros

[Bugarash 1893]

I this your own graphic or a wikipedia-graphic? And what is the source of the data?
I think no data exist for create a current ethnographic map, because the last census was boycotted.
But thank you for information.

Alexandros

Thats a date based on demographic trends and the change of the local administration units in 2013.

The issue with Kicevo municipality is a fact while the rest is my porediction based on the demographic trends.

In 2013 it is expected less populated majority macedonian municipalities to be added to larger albanian municipalities.

*Note that I added two majority turkish municipalities to the albanian side.


http://i846.photobucket.com/albums/ab30/Makedonia5000/Albanians_in_macedonia2002_03.png

How things will look in 2013 when the municipalities of Zajas,Oslomej,Drugovo and Vranestica are abolished and join the municipality of Kicevo-after which Kicevo will become a majority albanian municipality:

http://i846.photobucket.com/albums/ab30/Makedonia5000/CopyofAlbanians_in_macedonia2002_03.png

Meanwhile here is a more detailed picture

numbers 9 and 10 are the majority turkish municipalities-Centar Zupa and Plasnica.

http://i846.photobucket.com/albums/ab30/Makedonia5000/CopyofCopyofAlbanians_in_macedonia2002_03.png

Municipalities that from the 2002 census till now have transformed from majority macedonian or mixed to majority albanian or majority muslim:

1.Caska municipality
2.Dolneni Municipality
3.Jagunovce Municipality-the situation here is still unsure,I would go for the 50/50 odds for a 50/50%
but for the other two it's certain.

I would focus on Caska and Dolneni municipalities because the albanians by takingover them,have established domination in Central Macedonia.

The municipalities marked in black are the majority macedonian municipalities that have the highest negative population decrease.

[Alexandros]

Thats a date based on demographic trends and the change of the local administration units in 2013.

The issue with Kicevo municipality is a fact while the rest is my porediction based on the demographic trends.
...


Who makes this change and why?
Whats the reason?



...
Meanwhile here is a more detailed picture

numbers 9 and 10 are the majority turkish municipalities-Centar Zupa and Plasnica.

http://i846.photobucket.com/albums/ab30/Makedonia5000/CopyofCopyofAlbanians_in_macedonia2002_03.png

Municipalities that from the 2002 census till now have transformed from majority macedonian or mixed to majority albanian or majority muslim:

1.Caska municipality
2.Dolneni Municipality
3.Jagunovce Municipality-the situation here is still unsure,I would go for the 50/50 odds for a 50/50%
but for the other two it's certain.

I would focus on Caska and Dolneni municipalities because the albanians by takingover them,have established domination in Central Macedonia.

The municipalities marked in black are the majority macedonian municipalities that have the highest negative population decrease.

I would do the same if I was a Slav.
If the Slavs loose 4,5 and 6 than Albanians will dominate 1/3 of F.Y.R.O.M or more.
The city of Skopje/Shkupi is almost surrounded by Albanians.
This is one of the many reasons, why I can not undertstand projects like ''Skopje 2014''.

Ich blicke bei F.Y.R.O.M nicht mehr durch und kann ihr Verhalten nicht nachvollziehen ... was die tun ist doch gegen ihr eigenes Volk :D (Eng. I can not understand the behavior of F.Y.R.O.M, because their behavior is against own people).









Alexandros

[Bugarash 1893]

Who makes this change and why?
Whats the reason?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macedonian_autonomy_referendum,_2004

Kicevo was left last for the change-in the next local elections which will take place in early 2013.

[Bugarash 1893]

I will olso post some stats on Serbia on this thread because I dont want to open up a demographic related thread on every section...

[Bugarash 1893]

Serbia

First 9 months of this year:

Births/Deaths



I-IX 2012 : 45.905/74.801 (-28.896)

Comperasion with 2011


I-IX 2011 : 46.865/75.669 (-28.804)

[Bugarash 1893]

Bitola is the biggest catastrophe

For the first 9 months of this year:

Births/Deaths Total


681 / 986

Comperasion with 2011


702 / 864

Based on the trends we know from the last few years,we can estimate that the fall of the macedonians...Albanians,Roma and Turks in Bitola probably cover at least abour 70 of the loss for the those 9 months.

That means 681-986 = -305...= -375 macedonians in just 9 months.

Note that this minus 375 is my rough estimation number...could be a little more or a little less.

[Don Arb]

The government is paying millions of euros every year, for families who are having a second and third child and of course only for mac families.

[iNird]

delete

[MegaArgus1]

http://forum.slavorum.com/index.php/topic,701.msg60572.html#msg60572

[Bugarash 1893]

Vital statistics for Serbia 1990-2011

Note that till 1997 Kosovo is counted as part of Serbia

Births/Deaths

http://www.dodaj.rs/f/J/8G/3MHTjpvi/1/srbistanzivorodeniumrli.png

[Grizzly]

Vital statistics for Serbia 1990-2011

Note that till 1997 Kosovo is counted as part of Serbia

Births/Deaths

http://www.dodaj.rs/f/J/8G/3MHTjpvi/1/srbistanzivorodeniumrli.png

That's nearly a loss of half a million people in 13 years :eek:

Do you have stats on Kosovo?

[dralos]

thats good news:D

[Bugarash 1893]

Well guys,we have the entire info of the Serbian,Kosovar and Albanian population censuses in 2011,so please let me demonstrate:

Analysis

Age structure:

Kosovo

Total population: 1.739.825


0-14: 487.577 (28%)
0-19: 662.509 (38%)

65+: 116.785 (6,71%)

Albania

Total population: 2.800.138


0-14: 578.566 (20,66%)
0-19: 847.312 (30,25%)

65+: 317.585 (11,34%)

Serbia

Total population: 7.186.862


0-14: 1.025.278 (14,26%)
0-19: 1.427.272 (19,85%)

65+: 1.250.316 (17,39%)

This means that by 2020 eventually 2025,it is very possible that Albanians in Albania and Kosovo to become more numerous than Serbs in Serbia...If we count in the Albanians in Macedonia than for sure Albanians can surpass by 2020.

I will show you later the real reason for it,the presented material from above is just one rather small segment of the couse.

[Novi Pazar]

Well guys,we have the entire info of the Serbian,Kosovar and Albanian population censuses in 2011,so please let me demonstrate:

Analysis

Age structure:

Kosovo

Total population: 1.739.825



Albania

Total population: 2.800.138



Serbia

Total population: 7.186.862



This means that by 2020 eventually 2025,it is very possible that Albanians in Albania and Kosovo to become more numerous than Serbs in Serbia...If we count in the Albanians in Macedonia than for sure Albanians can surpass by 2020.

I will show you later the real reason for it,the presented material from above is just one rather small segment of the couse.

Interesting, wasn't the Albanian population just 3.1mil just a couple of years ago? A drop of 0.3mil.....no wonder there was an Albanian female singer pleading with her audience, for them, to have more children.

PS Its either population manipulation (well known in kosovo) or migration into kosovo. Even kosovo is ONLY 1.7mil, geez, wasn't it 2mil?

[alb0zfinest]

Interesting, wasn't the Albanian population just 3.1mil just a couple of years ago? A drop of 0.3mil.....no wonder there was an Albanian female singer pleading with her audience, for them, to have more children.

PS Its either population manipulation (well known in kosovo) or migration into kosovo. Even kosovo is ONLY 1.7mil, geez, wasn't it 2mil?

Simple answer MASS MIGRATION.

[Hayalet]

This means that by 2020 eventually 2025,it is very possible that Albanians in Albania and Kosovo to become more numerous than Serbs in Serbia...
Do you mind explaining the mathematics there? Because according to projections, Albania's population in 2020 & 2025 will be about 3,075,000 & 3,105,000 while the figures for Serbia are 7,012,000 & 6,846,000.

[Novi Pazar]

Simple answer MASS MIGRATION.

BS!

[alb0zfinest]

BS!

600,000 Albanians in Greece
500,000 In Italy (there were probably way more but many got assimilated)
500,000+ Albanians in Turkey
400,000+ Albanians in Germany
300,000+ Albanians in Switzerland
250,000+ In the United States
100,000+ in The United Kingdom
100,000+ in France
300,000 in Switzerland
200,000 in Belgium
50,000 or less in these countries Canada, Slovenia, Croatia, Netherlands, Norway, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Spain, Australia, Russia, Bosnia, Sweden
All these Albanians outside of the Albanian territories had to come from somewhere and clearly it was either from Albania, Kosova, Montenegro or Macedonia.

[Novi Pazar]

^ From last census to now, just a few years, Albania lost 300,000 and kosovo lost 300,000 to 400,000. Arn't the Albanian birthrates booming, and why do they want to leave regions like Kosovo or Western Macedonia?

I know!

[poiuytrewq0987]

^ From last census to now, just a few years, Albania lost 300,000 and kosovo lost 300,000 to 400,000. Arn't the Albanian birthrates booming, and why do they want to leave regions like Kosovo or Western Macedonia?

I know!

They're leaving Albania en masse to pay your Australian flat a visit. :whoo:

[Bugarash 1893]

Do you mind explaining the mathematics there? Because according to projections, Albania's population in 2020 & 2025 will be about 3,075,000 & 3,105,000

Remember this:

PROJECTIONS MEAN NOTHING!

I will give you one projection of Eurostat,about Romania's population decreasing to a little above 20 million by 2030.

2011 census showed that Romania had a population of 19,043,767.

ALSO-An a projection can never predict the level of immigration outflow and Influx!


while the figures for Serbia are 7,012,000 & 6,846,000.

Im a man that speaks stuff based on facts,current trends.

So lets even put aside the current trends that are already happening in Serbia,just look more deeper in what awaits.

Here is the age structure of Serbia's total population as of the 2011 census:


0-4: 328.255
5-9: 350.154
10-14: 346.869
15-19: 401.994
20-24: 439.741
25-29: 480.286
30-34: 496.362
35-39: 493.934
40-44: 469.928
45-49: 483.986
50-54: 520.344

55-59: 596.279
60-64: 528.414
65-69: 339.444
70-74: 354.142
75-79: 298.612
80-84: 176.568
85+ : 81.550

Do you know what will it mean in few years when the age group 55-64-the baby boom generations step in into the next group stage?

Let me be more plastic in the explanation,it means that in a couple of years,this is what awaits Serbia:

http://baghdadbythebaysf.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/karachitsunmai.jpg

[Hayalet]

Im a man that speaks stuff based on facts,current trends.
You are a man that doesn't know what he is talking about.


Albania

Population: 3,002,859

Growth rate: 0.28%

Serbia

Population: 7,276,604

Growth rate: -0.464%

Source: The CIA World Factbook

If we were to assume these growth rates were constant, it would take some 150 years for Serbian population to shrink to half its size. And exactly 250 years for Albanian population to double.

[Bugarash 1893]

You are a man that doesn't know what he is talking about.

If we were to assume these growth rates were constant, it would take some 150 years for Serbian population to shrink to half its size. And exactly 250 years for Albanian population to double.

Did I post the facts above or Is it just the bucket making noise?

And did you forget the most important segment?



ALSO-An a projection can never predict the level of immigration outflow and Influx!

[Hayalet]

^ Age structure has nothing do with immigration either.

And what about Oslo? I don't get it. :D

[Bugarash 1893]

^ Age structure has nothing do with immigration either.


No but it has alot to do in predicting how much more people will be dying than being born and the weight it will be for the entire economy,especially for the pension system of one country.

This natural decrease will only become larger:


Vital statistics for Serbia 1990-2011

Note that till 1997 Kosovo is counted as part of Serbia

Births/Deaths

http://www.dodaj.rs/f/J/8G/3MHTjpvi/1/srbistanzivorodeniumrli.png

[Bugarash 1893]

Based on the stuff posted above,it is sure to expect that Serbia on the next population census in 2020 will have a population of around 6,4 million.

Ethnic Serbs will stand at about 5,3 million.

Thats what the trends show,trends backed by facts.
And again I note that alot will depend on the immigration rate.
Im assuming the immigration rate will increase in the near future.

[Bugarash 1893]

If Yugoslavia existed today:


Serbs - 7.500.000
Croats - 4.475.000
Albanians- 2.225.000
Bosniaks - 1.915.000
Slovenians- 1.665 000
Macedonians - 1.220 000
Montenegrins - 335.000
Hungarians - 275.000
Roma - 265.000

[Grizzly]

If Yugoslavia existed today:

That wouldn't be an accurate estimate as you'd probably figure there wouldn't have been the huge refugee/displacement problem leaving from the war. Almost all ethnic groups would have a significantly higher population % besides maybe the Serbs, Macedonians and probably Slovenians.

Albanians would probably have an even higher birthrate if the big bad Yugo still existed but I don't think the birth rates for Serbs would change dramatically.

[Novi Pazar]

You are a man that doesn't know what he is talking about.



If we were to assume these growth rates were constant, it would take some 150 years for Serbian population to shrink to half its size. And exactly 250 years for Albanian population to double.

Altay, its an obvious case of paranoia. Why do l say this, you need to look at Bulgaria's population trend to find the answer....all of their minorities are growing whilst they are falling dramatically. Bulgars, like Bugarash (Serbian way of saying his nick) is fearing a population catastrophe and is hoping it will happen to serbia also.

PS His not using something between his ears!

[Novi Pazar]

"Let me be more plastic in the explanation,it means that in a couple of years,this is what awaits Serbia:"

Quick, build some retaining walls along the border of Bulgaria-Serbia so a wipe out won't happen inside Bulgarskata!

[Archduke]

....all of their minorities are growing whilst they are falling dramatically.

You wish. :D All minorities in Bulgaria are on decline. Look the last census

[Trun]

Only gypsies are growing in number, but this is the trend on all Balkans.

[Archduke]

Only gypsies are growing in number, but this is the trend on all Balkans.

They are not. I believe only to what 2011 Census said.

[Novi Pazar]

You wish. All minorities in Bulgaria are on decline. Look the last census

Archduke, your young and super nationalistic, its normal. Honestly, l would not like Bulgaria to be on a decline like this, obviously there is a problem. Who is going to SUFFER, not the politicians but the average person on the street.

Anyway, l want you to turn your attention to Bulgaria's THE NEWS (Novinite) from October 2011:

Bulgaria has the most negative natural growth rate of all countries in the world, according to a report prepared by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

The Balkan country's expected natural growth rate for the period 2010-2015 is -0.7%, which places it last of all states in the world together with the Republic of Moldova, the report, entitled "State of the World Population 2011", has shown.

Bulgaria's population has declined from a peak of 9,009,018 in 1989 to no more than 7.3 million, according to the country's 2011 census. The decline is seen as a result of very low fertility and substantial emigration. Recently, the UN projected a Bulgarian population of a mere 5.4 million in 2050,

Niger tops UNFPA's statistics with an expected natural growth rate of 3.5% for the period 2010-2015. The world's average population growth for the same period is set to be 1.1%.

UNFPA's report comes ahead of the expected birth of the 7 billionth person on earth at the end of October.

In some of the poorest countries, high fertility rates hamper development and perpetuate poverty, while in some of the richest countries, low fertility rates and too few people entering the job market are raising concerns, the report points out.

[Archduke]

I agree with absolutely everything you posted above. But how this is connected with the bullshit you said that Bulgarians are the only people on decline in Bulgaria? :D

BTW Serbia ain't better than Bulgaria, considering the fact that we are in EU/NATO and because of this more people emigrate. When Serbia is going to be accepted in the EU and NATO only gypsies, albanians and hungarians will remain there. :P

[Bugarash 1893]

You wish. All minorities in Bulgaria are on decline. Look the last census

Archduke, your young and super nationalistic, its normal. Honestly, l would not like Bulgaria to be on a decline like this, obviously there is a problem. Who is going to SUFFER, not the politicians but the average person on the street.

Anyway, l want you to turn your attention to Bulgaria's THE NEWS (Novinite) from October 2011:

Bulgaria has the most negative natural growth rate of all countries in the world, according to a report prepared by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

The Balkan country's expected natural growth rate for the period 2010-2015 is -0.7%, which places it last of all states in the world together with the Republic of Moldova, the report, entitled "State of the World Population 2011", has shown.

Bulgaria's population has declined from a peak of 9,009,018 in 1989 to no more than 7.3 million, according to the country's 2011 census. The decline is seen as a result of very low fertility and substantial emigration. Recently, the UN projected a Bulgarian population of a mere 5.4 million in 2050,

Niger tops UNFPA's statistics with an expected natural growth rate of 3.5% for the period 2010-2015. The world's average population growth for the same period is set to be 1.1%.

UNFPA's report comes ahead of the expected birth of the 7 billionth person on earth at the end of October.

In some of the poorest countries, high fertility rates hamper development and perpetuate poverty, while in some of the richest countries, low fertility rates and too few people entering the job market are raising concerns, the report points out.

By 2050 Bulgaria will have the living standard of todays Sweden.
When the living standard goes up,so does the population.

Or maybe two more world wars will happen.

As I said,projections,estimating te population several decades from now are BS.

[Onur]

By 2050 Bulgaria will have the living standard of todays Sweden.
Care to explain how this will happen? By increasing Bulgarian criminal activities by 10 fold? OR you guys have some master plan like planting your ATM machine fraud setups to EU central bank in Brussels?

Bulgaria has one of the worst outlook in Europe for the future forecasts. You have a catastrophic demography issue. Let alone Bulgarians, even gypsies are running away from the country. Most pensioners gets less than 100$ per month. I know that from my brother`s wife who has parents living in there. How you gonna be like Sweden with that?

[Bugarash 1893]

We have the stats from Croatia's 2011 census!

I will start with the chronology of Serbs in Croatia:



census 1948 - 543,795 14.5%
census 1953 - 588,411 15.0%
census 1961 - 624,985 15.0%
census 1971 - 626,789 14.2%
census 1981 - 531,502 11.6%
census 1991 - 581,663 12.2%
census 2001 - 201,631 4.5%
census 2011 -186,633 4.36%

According to their natural growth or should I say decrease in the last 10 years,they should have dropped lower in number,but it looks like some of the refugee Serbs returned to Croatia...

[Bugarash 1893]

Care to explain how this will happen? By increasing Bulgarian criminal activities by 10 fold? OR you guys have some master plan like planting your ATM machine fraud setups to EU central bank in Brussels?

Bulgaria has one of the worst outlook in Europe for the future forecasts. You have a catastrophic demography issue. Let alone Bulgarians, even gypsies are running away from the country. Most pensioners gets less than 100$ per month. I know that from my brother`s wife who has parents living in there. How you gonna be like Sweden with that?

Gypsies are running away from everywhere,they are nomads,thats what they do.

Thats a phase in Bulgaria that had to happen,it happaned everywhere.

Some countries dont even have the opportunities to work in the west as bulgarian citizens but still have a larger outflow rate.
Its a passing phase that will stabilize in the future.

Take even Greece for an example,4 million greeks left Greece during the hard periods.Bulgaria is in advance because 90% of the bulgarian diaspora is located in Europe and in countries that now are taking the major blow of the crisis.

It is a matter of time when most of them will return...

Prosperity in Bulgaria is bound to happen,its normal that is happens!

By 2020,Bulgaria will become a middle-income european economy.If Greece,Portugal and Spain transformed from poor european to western european in 20 years,then why Bulgaria wouldnt?

Pensioners are the generation tha let communism happen,the material situation of most pensioners is bad,but they're now living with the consequences of that system.

Meanwhile in Turkey

http://d24w6bsrhbeh9d.cloudfront.net/photo/4460948_700b.jpg

[Novi Pazar]

Care to explain how this will happen? By increasing Bulgarian criminal activities by 10 fold? OR you guys have some master plan like planting your ATM machine fraud setups to EU central bank in Brussels?

Bulgaria has one of the worst outlook in Europe for the future forecasts. You have a catastrophic demography issue. Let alone Bulgarians, even gypsies are running away from the country. Most pensioners gets less than 100$ per month. I know that from my brother`s wife who has parents living in there. How you gonna be like Sweden with that?

Onur, its called a DREAM. The EU is falling apart and they are hoping to get a free ride or should l say, some free money from Deutschland. I know the people in Serbia, for instance, are against joining, but its the politicians who are pushing it, they are the ones who will benefit, not the people. Why is the USA pushing Serbia to join it; American national interest!

[Novi Pazar]

We have the stats from Croatia's 2011 census!

I will start with the chronology of Serbs in Croatia:


According to their natural growth or should I say decrease in the last 10 years,they should have dropped lower in number,but it looks like some of the refugee Serbs returned to Croatia...

Your so fixated on Serbs, its almost like a psychological disorder. Are you really Bulgarian? I've posted on many different forums and Albanians, especially from Macedonia, POSE as Bulgars!

Your chronologies purpose was to rub it in my face, wasn't it....this is very biased Bugarash, l could ask our Turkish members here and speak about ethnic CLEANSING during 1989 in Bulgaria and say, "Oh, it was just a demographic catastrophe." However, l know this wasn't the case!

PS I'm very skeptical of you being a Bulgar!

[Archduke]

Onur, its called a DREAM. The EU is falling apart and they are hoping to get a free ride or should l say, some free money from Deutschland.

Only pathetic creatures like Serbs and Turks which know that they will never be part of the EU are whining such things as the colapse of the union.


I know the people in Serbia, for instance, are against joining, but its the politicians who are pushing it, they are the ones who will benefit, not the people. Why is the USA pushing Serbia to join it; American national interest!

This will only isolate Serbia from the modern world and u guys will die in your own swill.

[Archduke]

Your chronologies purpose was to rub it in my face, wasn't it....this is very biased Bugarash, l could ask our Turkish members here and speak about ethnic CLEANSING during 1989 in Bulgaria and say, "Oh, it was just a demographic catastrophe." However, l know this wasn't the case!

We apologized to Turks for what we done, however animals like Serbs do not want to do the same to Bosniaks, Macedonian Bulgarians, Albanians...

And Bugarash is 100% Bulgarian. Serbs should realize that Bulgarians hate them (especially the ones from Macedonia).

[Onur]

Only pathetic creatures like Serbs and Turks which know that they will never be part of the EU are whining such things as the colapse of the union.
Fuck EU!

It would be better for Turkey to stay away from any union where Bulgaria as a part of it. I would consider that as an insult to Turkish nation to be in some kind of federation with Bulgaria in equal terms, if we consider that Bulgaria was our subjects for about 500 years in the past.

[Archduke]

Fuck EU!

It would be better for Turkey to stay away from any union where Bulgaria as a part of it. I would consider that as an insult to Turkish nation to be in some kind of federation with Bulgaria in equal terms, if we consider that Bulgaria was our subjects for about 500 years in the past.

Go tell that to your politicans. :rolleyes:

Turkey is giving her ass for more than 50 years to the Western world with the intent to be accepted as European. Becoming EU country is dream number 1 for Turks.

Suprisingly, till recently communist, Bulgaria became EU country because that's the place she belong to.

[poiuytrewq0987]

Fuck EU!

It would be better for Turkey to stay away from any union where Bulgaria as a part of it. I would consider that as an insult to Turkish nation to be in some kind of federation with Bulgaria in equal terms, if we consider that Bulgaria was our subjects for about 500 years in the past.

We don't need you either, enjoy your union with Azerbaijan and Iraq.

[Bugarash 1893]

Fuck EU!

It would be better for Turkey to stay away from any union where Bulgaria as a part of it. I would consider that as an insult to Turkish nation to be in some kind of federation with Bulgaria in equal terms, if we consider that Bulgaria was our subjects for about 500 years in the past.

Then why have you been waiting in line for EU membership since 1950?

Why are you using EU funds provided to you as a candidate state?

Why dont you reject it then?

Now these are questions turkoglu,which you cant asnwer.
Not a damn answer is being given!

Why,oh why you dont answer these questions?
Two simple questions eh?

Oh,and one more thing:

DksSPZTZES0

[Don Arb]

makedonce lavce doesnt want to be bugarce

[Novi Pazar]

We apologized to Turks for what we done, however animals like Serbs do not want to do the same to Bosniaks, Macedonian Bulgarians, Albanians...

And Bugarash is 100% Bulgarian. Serbs should realize that Bulgarians hate them (especially the ones from Macedonia).

Yes and there are 1million displaced Serbs living in Serbia. Anyway, its Albanians who hate Serbs, especially the ones from Macedonia! I don't think normal Bulgarians are so psychologically warped like Albanians.

PS If Bugarash is 100% Bulgarian, shouldn't his nick be BuLgarash instead?

[Novi Pazar]

Fuck EU!

It would be better for Turkey to stay away from any union where Bulgaria as a part of it. I would consider that as an insult to Turkish nation to be in some kind of federation with Bulgaria in equal terms, if we consider that Bulgaria was our subjects for about 500 years in the past.

Onur, absolutely, l certainly don't want a new centralised government (EU) running and controlling my own affairs, you know, taking my resources, jobs to other regions and then using your own people for warfare because the centralised government has you by the balls.

I keep praying Serbia keeps away. If Bulgars here are happy about it, then be happy, then l'm happy too for them....